Infection rates down!

I was wondering how much of the fall has been caused by schoolchildren no longer doing tests since the schools broke up. But then I saw this video by Dr John Campbell, saying that between 20 July and 26 July there has been a continual downward trend in the number of infections reported per day - i e every day the number of infections reported has been lower than the day before.
youtu.be/hed0TgaprMI

This couldn’t be caused by end of term, as the schools tend to break up at the same time.

People deleting the NHS app could be having an effect. However, Dr John is feeling optimistic and he knows more about infectious disease than most people.

I’m sure the picture will become clearer.

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

There are numerous reasons why the number of reported cases are going down, many of which already mentioned. The only important statistic which gives a true picture are the number of hospitalisations and deaths. If these continue to rise then the true number of cases must be rising. If hospitalisations and deaths start to fall then it can be safely assumed that actual cases are also falling. We’re not there yet but I look hopefully every day/week at the trend for hospitalisations and deaths, not number of cases reported.

Our rates are still going up and and our local news last night it said that teenagers are now intensive care and they have had to open up more ICU beds. They have called for extra staff to come into the hospitals cos they are so busy.

please, please someone sort me out on this

Always happy to oblige Polnan.

why am I the only one that can see that?
Don’t kid yourself, there are lots of conspiracy theorists who think they’ve found the issue. Its one way of measuring it that is consistent through the pandemic. Other methods are seeing who had “Covid” on their death certificates, that's the measure that is used by the ONS, and another is the total number of excess deaths. The numbers are all available to anyone who can be bothered to look them up.
www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/deaths

Farce or what?
People get told to isolate for the appropriate period after they have been in contact with a potentially infectious case. If the contact was 5 days ago, you get told to isolate for 5 days. 5+5 =10. Yep, you might have been wondering around for 5 days already, but they are minimising the contacts as much as they can, not eliminating them completely.

HTH

kirflyn

Ladies you are acting like two year olds. You know who. Hopefully Covid and drug related deaths will fall in the United Kingdom.

What and who are you talking about? Can't be me 'cos I ain't no lady.

(disappears off to suck on her dummy ?)

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

kirflyn

Ladies you are acting like two year olds. You know who. Hopefully Covid and drug related deaths will fall in the United Kingdom.

are you spying on me again?

I’m still very sceptical most I know have deleted the app, kids not at school = many fewer tests and pings so therefore showing a reduction in numbers. I’ll be happy to be proved wrong.

Number of tests in a week down by 10%.

Number of positive cases down by 20%.

Its not all due to reduced testing. We need to wait and see.

Skye17

I was wondering how much of the fall has been caused by schoolchildren no longer doing tests since the schools broke up. But then I saw this video by Dr John Campbell, saying that between 20 July and 26 July there has been a continual downward trend in the number of infections reported per day - i e every day the number of infections reported has been lower than the day before.
youtu.be/hed0TgaprMI

This couldn’t be caused by end of term, as the schools tend to break up at the same time.

People deleting the NHS app could be having an effect. However, Dr John is feeling optimistic and he knows more about infectious disease than most people.

I’m sure the picture will become clearer.

Most independent schools broke up early in July.

It had to happen at some point people have been vaccinated or have caught it

MaizieD

I'm seeing it suggested that:

a) People aren't reporting positive LF tests or going for pcrs to confirm, b) the app has been deleted by many people who might have been pinged & tested positive, c) with schools now closed fewer children, staff and parents are regularly testing, which may be missing out positive cases, d) labs are struggling to keep abreast of processing tests because of staff shortages (because of pinging) so there's a big backlog as yet unreported.

It is just too much of a coincidence that rates fall so fast in the first week of freedom.

And yet my pcr test result at the weekend came through less than 24 hours later

When I booked it (sat lunchtime) there were over a 1000 appointments available across different sites in my area for the afternoon. Can't comment on others but the one I went to was empty apart from me!

(Thankfully negative)

geekesse

Skye17

I was wondering how much of the fall has been caused by schoolchildren no longer doing tests since the schools broke up. But then I saw this video by Dr John Campbell, saying that between 20 July and 26 July there has been a continual downward trend in the number of infections reported per day - i e every day the number of infections reported has been lower than the day before.
youtu.be/hed0TgaprMI

This couldn’t be caused by end of term, as the schools tend to break up at the same time.

People deleting the NHS app could be having an effect. However, Dr John is feeling optimistic and he knows more about infectious disease than most people.

I’m sure the picture will become clearer.

Most independent schools broke up early in July.

OK, but they only educate about 6.5% of UK children, so you wouldn’t think that would have a big effect.

I think the schools break up earlier in Scotland though, and it’s UK figures we’re talking about.

Schools break up at different times throughout the UK. I know that Nottinghamshire don’t break up until tomorrow, some schools broke up last Friday and some the Friday before so even in England it’s quite spread out. My nephews in Scotland go back on 16th August, it will be interesting to see if the rate starts creeping up again then in Scotland - let’s hope not.

Infection rate is up 63.6% where I live. I suppose it is going down in some places.

I don’t believe we’ll ever know the true numbers of Covid deaths especially when they lie on death certificates.
My ex bil was in hospital with colon cancer for months, had three negative Covid results and has since died, so what have they put as cause of death?
Covid that’s what!!!?
Strange how the fact that he was supposed to have had it and yet they forgot to mention it to the family who were coming and going as normal and were allowed to have physical contact such as little hugs and stroking his head and face and who wasn’t even on a Covid ward.
This absolutely stinks!
Most of us I’m sure have heard of that hospitals are doing this and a lot of you have taken it with a pinch of salt but it’s true they really are and we’ll never know the actual number of the amount of people who really died of Covid.
We need to wake up because these statistics aren’t accurate!

The statistics are accurate HiPpyChick, but many people haven’t taken the trouble to understand why the cause of death is recorded in the way it is. This is a clear explanation.
www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/measuring-mortality-during-covid-19-a-q-a
One key point is that the immediate cause of death is recorded first on the death certificate. If a person would have lived longer (even by a day) had they not contracted Covid then Covid is the primary cause of death.
Different systems are used to capture deaths where Covid is a contributory factor, which is why the Covid death numbers are available in three different accounting methods, all of which are correct depending on what information you wish to review.

HiPpyChick57 said her BIL had had 3 negative Covid tests so presumably did not have Covid when he died.

Perhaps that is balanced out by those who died 28 days after contracting Covid so what was on the their death certificates?

Casdon that explanation is as clear as mud.
Covid was put down as the main cause of death despite having three negative tests.
When my dn rang the dr who signed the death certificate her answer was that she went by the information the hospital provided.
That’s all well and good but wouldn’t the family who were visiting daily have been told that he had it? There was no mention of Covid and certainly not a positive test. The first they knew that he supposedly had Covid was when they saw it on the death certificate. How could he have had,and died of Covid without the family knowing, especially his dd who was there every day???

Today’s figures U.K. 23,511 last Tuesday 46,558 that is approximately 50% down.

Our cases are getting worse by the day, 1450 new positives just today in N.I. Also just heard a 3 week old baby in ICU in a local hospital with Covid and 2 teenagers fighting for for their lives so it's just getting worse here.

that's certainly strange Hippychick I would have had words with both his GP and the hospital about that.

it's getting younger Alioop not sure about worse in terms of ICU and death.