Could Omicron actually be a good thing?

Lincslass

EllanVannin

growstuff

EllanVannin

We need to know why so many young fit people have died.

Sadly, we hear of people losing their lives to this pandemic but the exact cause of death has never been mentioned.

Yes, it has.

What I mean by the exact cause of death are pathologist reports not just a death certificate with Covid written on it.

We are not entitled to personal information on individual death certificates. That is a private matter for the families.

Death certificates are a matter of public record. Anybody can apply for a copy of a death certificate, providing they know the dates of birth and death, even if they are a complete stranger.

EllanVannin

growstuff

EllanVannin

We need to know why so many young fit people have died.

Sadly, we hear of people losing their lives to this pandemic but the exact cause of death has never been mentioned.

Yes, it has.

What I mean by the exact cause of death are pathologist reports not just a death certificate with Covid written on it.

We are not entitled to personal information on individual death certificates. That is a private matter for the families.

Data by vaccination status for England.

Comes out once a week.

Page 27ff.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1039677/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_49.pdf

And for Scotland.

Page 42ff

publichealthscotland.scot/media/10758/21-12-08-covid19-winter_publication_report.pdf

EllanVannin

growstuff

EllanVannin

growstuff

EllanVannin

We need to know why so many young fit people have died.

Sadly, we hear of people losing their lives to this pandemic but the exact cause of death has never been mentioned.

Yes, it has.

What I mean by the exact cause of death are pathologist reports not just a death certificate with Covid written on it.

This has been discussed umpteen times, not just on GN. Covid causes multi-organ failure by clots blocking oxygen, especially the lungs, and that's what kills people.

So why does it kill some and not others ?

Because some people are more susceptible. For example, if you have COPD, your lungs are already compromised.

Genetics plays a role and scientists think they've identified faulty DNA in some cases.

The virus "latches on" to the body's systems via its spike protein and ACE2 receptors. Some people naturally have more and they increase with age, which is one reason the elderly are especially vulnerable.

Some people have compromised immune systems. For some, vaccinations offer limited protection.

Some people receive more viral load at the point of infection, so are more badly affected.

I've undoubtedly forgotten some reasons for differences. Some reasons are still a mystery, although it's known that some groups of people are more severely affected.

winterwhite

I agree with the argument that it is easy to get spooked by this.
The thing is spreading so rapidly that there seems little point in people continually testing - jut stay at home if you feel a bit ill.

It would be good to have, every 3 days or so, a breakdown of new cases by age group and vaccination status.

Isn't it likely that if omicron is more virulent than other mutations there would be signs by now?

There are signs. Case rates have been increasing every day for at least a week. Identified Omicron cases are doubling every two or three days. To date, they're still in the minority, but if they continue to double, it won't be long before they're dominant.

There's a time lag between cases and hospitalisations and deaths, so the picture should be a bit clearer maybe as early as next week.

winterwhite

I agree with the argument that it is easy to get spooked by this.
The thing is spreading so rapidly that there seems little point in people continually testing - jut stay at home if you feel a bit ill.

It would be good to have, every 3 days or so, a breakdown of new cases by age group and vaccination status.

Isn't it likely that if omicron is more virulent than other mutations there would be signs by now?

I'm not sure that data broken down by vaccination status is available.

However, here's the latest on cases broken down by age:

twitter.com/LawrenceGilder/status/1469349285917560833

He publishes it every day, plus other data.

*EllanVannin. It is the same with any illness, some get it lightly, some get it badly. Think measles and all the childhood illnesses, flu, colds etc etc.

The reason - a complex mix of genetics, lifestyle, diet, I do not mean good or bad , but poor people do not eat as well as better off people, air in towns is more polluted, allergies affect matters. It just happens.

My sisters (before vaccination) were both very ill with whooping cough. I did not catch it, I had measles, but not as badly as they did. However I was the most ill with chicken pox. The factors that decide who has illnesses severely and those who have it lightly are complex and, as yet, not fully unravelled.

I agree with the argument that it is easy to get spooked by this.
The thing is spreading so rapidly that there seems little point in people continually testing - jut stay at home if you feel a bit ill.

It would be good to have, every 3 days or so, a breakdown of new cases by age group and vaccination status.

Isn't it likely that if omicron is more virulent than other mutations there would be signs by now?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005

Don't forget to read past the headline...

However, a third booster dose significantly increased protection to around 75%.

The UK Health Security Agency said vaccines were still likely to offer good protection against severe Covid that needed hospital treatment.

Dr Mary Ramsay, Head of Immunisation at the UKHSA, said: ... "We expect the vaccines to show higher protection against the serious complications of COVID-19, so if you haven't yet had your first two doses please book an appointment straight away."

I guess it depends what you mean by "good".

I do like to get to the source of these things

growstuff

EllanVannin

growstuff

EllanVannin

We need to know why so many young fit people have died.

Sadly, we hear of people losing their lives to this pandemic but the exact cause of death has never been mentioned.

Yes, it has.

What I mean by the exact cause of death are pathologist reports not just a death certificate with Covid written on it.

This has been discussed umpteen times, not just on GN. Covid causes multi-organ failure by clots blocking oxygen, especially the lungs, and that's what kills people.

So why does it kill some and not others ?

Anyway, this pensioner has paid work to do. Ciao!

EllanVannin

growstuff

EllanVannin

We need to know why so many young fit people have died.

Sadly, we hear of people losing their lives to this pandemic but the exact cause of death has never been mentioned.

Yes, it has.

What I mean by the exact cause of death are pathologist reports not just a death certificate with Covid written on it.

This has been discussed umpteen times, not just on GN. Covid causes multi-organ failure by clots blocking oxygen, especially the lungs, and that's what kills people.

Alegrias1

I never suggested that you claimed we were back at the start growstuff. I said that we weren't back at the start specifically because people reading things like its not true that vaccines are effective against Omicron will think that vaccines are not effective against Omicron. (yes, I paraphrase).

So yes, of course we need to be realistic. But we don't need to always think we are going to have the worst case scenario and catastrophise everything. And right now, all the reports are that the vaccine is useful against Omicron. Even the WHO say so, and the advice is to get your booster when you can. Anything that even unintentionally implies that getting a booster is a waste of time is irresponsible.

I'm not catastrophising anything, but the facts are what they are and, at the moment, there aren't that many. In my post, I said that "evidence is growing that current vaccinations don't offer good protection against Omicron". It is growing. The majority of studies show that current vaccines don't offer a good level of protection against Omicron, although I suppose it depends what you mean by "good". The current advice is to have three doses and that's what people should try to do. They'll have good protection against the original variants and "maybe" good protection against Omicron. Meanwhile, they'd be wise not to be complacent about mitigations. I think most people are adult enough to understand that.

When a person who had cancer ,dies, it's not necessarily the primary cause of death but something else secondary to it which was the main cause.

I never suggested that you claimed we were back at the start growstuff. I said that we weren't back at the start specifically because people reading things like its not true that vaccines are effective against Omicron will think that vaccines are not effective against Omicron. (yes, I paraphrase).

So yes, of course we need to be realistic. But we don't need to always think we are going to have the worst case scenario and catastrophise everything. And right now, all the reports are that the vaccine is useful against Omicron. Even the WHO say so, and the advice is to get your booster when you can. Anything that even unintentionally implies that getting a booster is a waste of time is irresponsible.

growstuff

EllanVannin

We need to know why so many young fit people have died.

Sadly, we hear of people losing their lives to this pandemic but the exact cause of death has never been mentioned.

Yes, it has.

What I mean by the exact cause of death are pathologist reports not just a death certificate with Covid written on it.

PS. I never claimed that we are back at the start.

Alegrias1

growstuff

GrannyGravy13

All the interviews I have seen/heard have been fairly positive regarding the efficacy of vaccines against Omicron variant, particularly in respect of Pfizer boosters.

Not true, I'm afraid.

People are still being recommended to have vaccinations (especially boosters), but it is highly unlikely that any of the vaccinations offer the same protection against Omicron. There have been about six studies and only one of them was optimistic.

I'm going to disagree, even though I know growstuff you have specialist knowledge in this area.

Its unfair to say things like it is highly unlikely that any of the vaccinations offer the same protection against Omicron without qualifying what that means. Even if the protection is reduced, it is still effective. All I have seen so far is in respect of antibody protection against infection, nothing about protection against hospitalisation or severe illness.

We're not back at the start. We have effective vaccines and we have other methods of managing this pandemic now. I try not to be too pessimistic or too optimistic in what I post. But there are already threads on Mumsnet with people asking what's the point of getting the vaccine if it doesn't work against Omicron, so contributing to that perception is not fair.

Disclaimer again: I'm not an expert on this and I don't have any specialist knowledge. I just don't like scaring people.

I'd rather be realistic. There have been at least six studies. Pfizer has produced one with reasonably optimistic results. The truth is that more research is needed. The jury is still out. Scientists are working flat out to find out what's going on and to formulate new vaccines. Current vaccines probably do offer some protection, but the fact is that nobody knows how much. I'd rather know that and be more cautious than not know.

EllanVannin

We need to know why so many young fit people have died.

Sadly, we hear of people losing their lives to this pandemic but the exact cause of death has never been mentioned.

Yes, it has.

I think the speculation is running ahead faster than the knowledge at the moment. This is what Mark Drakeford said in the Covid review at lunchtime today:

"If we are at the fortunate end of the spectrum, that it's a milder illness [and] that the booster program gives you a significant defence against it, then the models show that the impact will be very real because of the speed, but that is probably absorbable by our public services.

"If it turns out that the variant is as severe or more severe than delta, if the vaccine escape is greater than we would have hoped for, then models will show that that impact will be much more difficult to manage. We're not at a point to where the modeling is sufficiently secure across to know which of those it will be.

"[It is a] spectrum between it being difficult but manageable to being difficult and additional actions needed in order to manage it."

All the UK governments being sufficiently concerned to ramp up the covid measures in the interim is an indicator of what they think may happen I think. Our part is to do what we are told.

We need to know why so many young fit people have died.

Sadly, we hear of people losing their lives to this pandemic but the exact cause of death has never been mentioned.

We once had some of the worst industries and workplaces imaginable where health and safety came bottom of the list.

I'm thinking of an uncle of mine who worked at a colliery for years. He died many years ago at aged 83, a good age at the time but never suffered the ills of miners---no chest or lung problems etc. went to his football matches every other week in all weathers by bus as he didn't drive and was generally fit.

Then there was brother and I as kids enduring billowing smoke from the fire if the wind blew in the wrong direction. Standing on bridges while a steam train went by and we got a face full of smoke from its chimney.
These are instances that would kill nowadays which is why we now have clean air though sadly it hasn't improved those who suffer many chest/ lung problems.
Just what causes all these ills with such advancements in industry and technology ?

growstuff

GrannyGravy13

All the interviews I have seen/heard have been fairly positive regarding the efficacy of vaccines against Omicron variant, particularly in respect of Pfizer boosters.

Not true, I'm afraid.

People are still being recommended to have vaccinations (especially boosters), but it is highly unlikely that any of the vaccinations offer the same protection against Omicron. There have been about six studies and only one of them was optimistic.

I'm going to disagree, even though I know growstuff you have specialist knowledge in this area.

Its unfair to say things like it is highly unlikely that any of the vaccinations offer the same protection against Omicron without qualifying what that means. Even if the protection is reduced, it is still effective. All I have seen so far is in respect of antibody protection against infection, nothing about protection against hospitalisation or severe illness.

We're not back at the start. We have effective vaccines and we have other methods of managing this pandemic now. I try not to be too pessimistic or too optimistic in what I post. But there are already threads on Mumsnet with people asking what's the point of getting the vaccine if it doesn't work against Omicron, so contributing to that perception is not fair.

Disclaimer again: I'm not an expert on this and I don't have any specialist knowledge. I just don't like scaring people.

growstuff

Urmstongran

It’s not gaslighting growstuff it’s an observation and an opinion.

Yes, it is. You're suggesting people are going to be frightened of their own shadows. It's the equivalent of school kid goading, when a child is called "chicken" for not wanting to risk running across a busy road.

Ridiculous interpretation of Urmstongrans words.

I know several people who have stopped listening/watching news items because they have become extremely frightened to the extent that they will not leave their own homes.