Well That’s Christmas Cancelled For Us

MayBeMaw

^What he failed to take into account is that such a worrying number would be balanced by around 600 Covid discharges each day. According to my source, the current seven-day average for Covid hospital discharges is 623 per day compared with average admissions of 780^
So that might have been 600 beds freed up for elective surgery/cancer treatment/fracture clinic care or any other illness. No?

No, I don’t think so Maw. I took it to illustrate that approx 700 are admitted (as Neil Ferguson said) but he failed to mention that 600 are coming OUT. so yes, admissions for Covid would be going up but by 100 a day (approximately) not 700 exponentially.

I will leave this here - Matt from the Telegraph this morning.
Highlights the problems faced by the hospitality industry engineered by our ‘self imposed’ lockdown. Bars, pub and restaurants ARE open! Some people are now so scared they won’t touch them with a barge pole.

58% of people over 60 have a long-term condition, such as coronary heart disease, COPD, diabetes or cancer, which makes a person more susceptible to severe effects from Covid.

www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/time-think-differently/trends-disease-and-disability-long-term-conditions-multi-morbidity

For a start, 36% of people between 65 and 74 are obese. A further 39% are overweight.

researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN03336/SN03336.pdf

Obesity is a risk factor in its right, in addition to the health conditions its causes.

M0nica

Do most people over 60 have underlying conditions? High blood pressure, under control and statins are unlikely to cause much problem.

Really? Says who?

Yes the same has happened to us. We and our son were to travel to our eldest daughter, partner and baby, where we were to be joined by our youngest daughter and partner. Our eldest daughter and partner both tested positive this morning so that’s our Xmas scuppered ?

What he failed to take into account is that such a worrying number would be balanced by around 600 Covid discharges each day. According to my source, the current seven-day average for Covid hospital discharges is 623 per day compared with average admissions of 780
So that might have been 600 beds freed up for elective surgery/cancer treatment/fracture clinic care or any other illness. No?

I'm not a fan of Boris Johnson, but have to admit I think he's got it right - just about - at the moment.

Of course, it does leave people - and businesses - in limbo land, but to shut everything down now just days away from Christmas would cause... how shall I phrase this... a certain amount of revolt / resistance from quite a large and volatile section of the public. If Facebook is anything to go by.

The last thing we need at the moment is the emergency services tied up with riots up and down the country. The 'anti' contingent are quite determined that they are not going to be "controlled" or told what to do by a government many of them feel alienated from. Of course, there are some very 'mouthy' people on FB and some of it is hot air. Nevertheless, I think the 'movement' is growing and I believe Johnson is very aware of that and its implications.

I think it will rest on the number of admissions in hospital over the next hours / days and I'm sure the PM is aware that there is a tipping point at which the NHS will simply not be able to cope. Leaving politics aside, I believe that will be the yardstick. If we reach this tipping point - where there are simply not enough beds nor staff to cope, the prospect of people possibly lining hospital corridors with nowhere to lie down, or even sit; ambulances lined up outside unable to offload their patients; doctors and nurses unable to deal with the numbers because there's too many and not enough of them, is possibly keeping him awake at night. Talk about a rock and a hard place... I think he knows he's going to be damned if he does and equally damned if he doesn't.

He's probably got one eye on the ever-changing (it seems) scientific data and the other on the NHS.

If only people would be sensible, consider others... well, you know the rest...

I heard a minister on the radio this morning - can't remember who - say that he had faith in "the British public being sensible and doing the right thing to protect themselves and others". I'm afraid I don't share his faith, and if he'd take a peek at FB, he'd understand why such faith might be misplaced. There's an awful lot of people who believe the government are trying to control them for nefarious purposes, poison them with vaccines in order to eliminate them - or even plant some kind of device in the vaccine and anti-viral pill to 'track' them, or impair their functioning ability, or use them as guinea pigs. I thought such people were a very small minority but, again, if FB is anything to go by... well, there's an awful lot of them. To me, they are more dangerous than the virus which, of course, their antics will only help to spread it.

Anyway... just me thinking out loud. I'm off to do some clearing up and last-minute stuff to be ready for the arrival of my son tomorrow. Hope everyone has a peaceful and relaxing night.

D-e-e-p breath... flippin' heck, this is a long comment - forgive me, I'm a touch-typist, so it just flows. And I've had a wee drink.

Drakeford
He's usually quite sensible.

Urmstongran

?

On another note re Drakeford ...

“Welsh face ‘outrageous’ £60 fine for going into the office... but they can still go to the pub
Labour administration in Wales has effectively made going to work a crime, introducing penalty for anyone unnecessarily travelling to office”

In the newspapers tonight.

Thank goodness I've retired!!

So what happens if you live in Wales but work in England as thousands do?

Parsley 3 thank you x

?

On another note re Drakeford ...

“Welsh face ‘outrageous’ £60 fine for going into the office... but they can still go to the pub
Labour administration in Wales has effectively made going to work a crime, introducing penalty for anyone unnecessarily travelling to office”

In the newspapers tonight.

Urmstongran

? ?

I'm a bit like that, too!

Sorry to hear Beautybumble. Plenty of drinks, hot, cold, soup and ice cream if you don’t fancy eating. And paracetamol to make you feel more human. Can you get online shopping or anybody to shop for you? Get well soon x

The problem is we have already learnt the hard way that's it is better to be safe than sorry when it comes to covid.

Yes the numbers matter on known strains but all the time it's running rampant the way it is more mutations are possible

Daisymae

Cases are probably down as schools are out, some have finished work pre Christmas, net result is that there is an awful lot less testing going on. Lest tests, less cases reported. Does not really indicate that it's slowing.

It’s not cases that are the main concern, it’s hospital admissions and deaths.

For what it’s worth, I think Boris has called it right tonight and Sturgeon & Drakeford have jumped the gun.

Thank you Dickens.
When I saw you’d quoted my post my first thought was “oh god what have I got wrong/ who have I upset/annoyed this time?”.

I’m becoming paranoid.
?

Urmstongran

Cases seem to be levelling over the past seven days. Schools have finished for their Christmas break = Less mixing.

Some are beginning to think the UK omicron has peaked.

This I thought was interesting in the Telegraph today, written by Allison Pearson:

“Let me give you one example of the way that our scientist overlords operate.

On December 10, Professor Neil Ferguson pointed out that Covid hospital admissions were about 700 a day.

What he failed to take into account is that such a worrying number would be balanced by around 600 Covid discharges each day. According to my source, the current seven-day average for Covid hospital discharges is 623 per day compared with average admissions of 780.

While both metrics have, indeed, increased, hospital bed occupancy has stayed roughly the same.”

A sense of perspective is, I think, coming over the horizon. The worst cases of the SAGE team have never happened. Get your boosters. Be aware but not panicked.

Good post Urmstongran

I agree wholeheartedly - be aware but not panicked.

That is exactly how I'm trying to deal with this (I'm in the extremely vulnerable category).

'Panic' is physiologically damaging anyway...

... and b-r-e-a-t-h-e

Cases are probably down as schools are out, some have finished work pre Christmas, net result is that there is an awful lot less testing going on. Lest tests, less cases reported. Does not really indicate that it's slowing.

Cases seem to be levelling over the past seven days. Schools have finished for their Christmas break = Less mixing.

Some are beginning to think the UK omicron has peaked.

This I thought was interesting in the Telegraph today, written by Allison Pearson:

“Let me give you one example of the way that our scientist overlords operate.

On December 10, Professor Neil Ferguson pointed out that Covid hospital admissions were about 700 a day.

What he failed to take into account is that such a worrying number would be balanced by around 600 Covid discharges each day. According to my source, the current seven-day average for Covid hospital discharges is 623 per day compared with average admissions of 780.

While both metrics have, indeed, increased, hospital bed occupancy has stayed roughly the same.”

A sense of perspective is, I think, coming over the horizon. The worst cases of the SAGE team have never happened. Get your boosters. Be aware but not panicked.

beautybumble

I've now got covid and I'm here alone. I'm sleeping a lot and watching stuff on youtube. No-one's called today which is usual they all have their own lives. So keeping fingers crossed to get over this soon. Try to enjoy what you do have.

I hope there's someone to check in on you - if only over the 'phone?

Rest, it seems, is the only option. But make sure you keep hydrated- hydration also plays a part in regulating body temperature.

Can't be very nice being ill and alone at Christmas. I hope you feel better soon.

Hundreds of thousands of people will
Have tested positive this week and will have to cancel their Christmas. Thousands of contacts will be asymptomatic and infect those they mix with. Expect numbers to soar post Christmas.

Do most people over 60 have underlying conditions? High blood pressure, under control and statins are unlikely to cause much problem.

This is, surely, the worst possible time to take a risk? Hospital staff are off sick, operations postponed due to a shortage of ICU beds - and it's the peak time of year for illness.

Those who decide that celebrating Christmas is, somehow, more important than saving lives are just irresponsible.

Oh dear, get better soon, beautybumble
Do you have plenty of stocks in, including paracetamol and soft drinks?

I've now got covid and I'm here alone. I'm sleeping a lot and watching stuff on youtube. No-one's called today which is usual they all have their own lives. So keeping fingers crossed to get over this soon. Try to enjoy what you do have.