Comparison of deaths from Covid to other reasons

OK, once more with feeling.

The story perpetuated by the "its nearly always unvaccinated people who go to hospital" myth implies that....pretty much only unvaccinated people go to hospital.

So when they stats come out and they show that there are more vaccinated people than unvaccinated in hospital, vaccine hesitant people think that the vaccine doesn't work. That they've been told lies about the vaccine. So they think, well I'm not having that, its a waste of time.

Whereas, if people understand that the law of large numbers means that some unfortunate people will succumb to breakthrough infections, and that because of that there will always be people in hospital who are fully vaccinated, they understand what is really going on. If 100% of us were vaccinated, there would still be breakthrough infections with serious illness and everybody in hospital would be vaccinated.

Hetty58

Alegrias1, it all depends upon which figures you believe, or find, doesn't it? Then, there's different meanings/interpretations with statistics. For instance, 'vaccinated' can mean one dose, two, three and/or booster. If only 25 million have had boosters, few are fully vaccinated.

Oh FGS. I give up.

Believe what you like.

foxie48, you can't follow it - neither can I - because it makes no logical sense

That's the trouble with probabilities. They are not always as intuitive as you think they are going to be, and sometimes the logic they describe is difficult to follow.

Doesn't mean they're wrong though. Just difficult for some to understand.

Alegrias the point of my post was that over the five days that my daughter was looking after covid patients, NONE of them have been vaccinated and despite being relatively young, on Friday they nearly "lost" some patients. I am not saying they had been partially or incompletely vaccinated, they had NOT been vaccinated. I asked daughter if she thought they might want to be vaccinated now and she said some wouldn't be around to get a second chance! Treatment for covid is much better now, the majority of patients who go into hospital are relatively short stay and don't end up in ICU but if they go into an ICU, they are very sick and if they get intubated (which is what daughter was doing) they are extremely sick. Your reply sounded rather patronising!

I am not doubting what your daughter says, not at all.

I'm pointing out that "being in hospital" is not the same as "being in ICU".

And getting it right is important. So when it's said that most people in hospital are unvaccinated, that's just wrong. Plain wrong.

The Government should be honest and upfront with facts and keep it simple.
It seems the majority of people in ICU have NOT been vacinated. There are still a large number of vacinated people still being admited to hospital.

Wish that I could believe what we are being told.
"Omicron is doubling every two days", But the figure published don't confirm that.
Over the last few days, upto and including the evening of Sunday 19th the figures published by the BBC were, in thousands: 58, 78, 83, 90 and 88.
That makes the worst increase per day about 34%. BAD but not the 41% needed per day to double every two days.
The other days have been less than 10%.
Do politicians ever know what they are talking about, or tell the truth?

Reported cases include Delta and Omicron. So the Omicron cases could be doubling that fast but the overall rate is reduced because of the lower doubling rate of Delta.

Oh, and reported cases are normally lower at the weekends.

My granddaughter is a nurse on a Covid ward. She says most of those in there are unvaccinated. I chose to believe her, why would she lie?

Puzzled

Wish that I could believe what we are being told.
"Omicron is doubling every two days", But the figure published don't confirm that.
Over the last few days, upto and including the evening of Sunday 19th the figures published by the BBC were, in thousands: 58, 78, 83, 90 and 88.
That makes the worst increase per day about 34%. BAD but not the 41% needed per day to double every two days.
The other days have been less than 10%.
Do politicians ever know what they are talking about, or tell the truth?

Omicron is doubling every two days", But the figure published don't confirm that.
Over the last few days, upto and including the evening of Sunday 19th the figures published by the BBC were, in thousands: 58, 78, 83, 90 and 88.
That makes the worst increase per day about 34%.

No, I think you are misunderstanding the maths.

Omicron might well be doubling every two days (I don't have the figures to hand so it may or may not be true but I believe it probably is).

However, there are still other variants around which are included in the total figures.
The 34%? increase includes those too.

I hope you see what I mean, someone else may explain it better.

Alegrias1

Reported cases include Delta and Omicron. So the Omicron cases could be doubling that fast but the overall rate is reduced because of the lower doubling rate of Delta.

X post
Yours is much more succinct!

nanna8

My granddaughter is a nurse on a Covid ward. She says most of those in there are unvaccinated. I chose to believe her, why would she lie?

You're in Australia. I haven't said anything about Australia.

Why don't people want to believe the actual truth, but rather the anecdotal stories of their no-doubt hard working family members?

Most people in hospital are vaccinated. C'est tout.

Wasn’t it just a week ago (max2) that TWO cases in the U.K. made the headlines?

Surely the point is that being fully vaccinated makes you less likely to end up in a bed in ICU and therefore much less likely to die. Of course, fully vaccinated people can still catch covid and can still need hospital treatment, I think most people know that. For anyone wanting some stats to convince them, this is from the Full facts website.
"The latest data from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) covers admissions in the months of May, June and July 2021. Page 45 of its report from 3 December shows that about 73% of intensive care unit (ICU) admissions with Covid involved unvaccinated people (2.6% of whom had received one dose of a vaccine less than two weeks before testing positive). About 20% were fully vaccinated."
However, in one large hospital in the SW last week, every covid patient in ICU were unvaccinated, some were in their 40's and they were very sick. C'est tout!

foxie48, nobody's arguing with you.

Except the people who keep saying that most people in hospital are unvaccinated. Which isn't the case.

Most people in ICU are unvaccinated.

foxie48

Alegrias the point of my post was that over the five days that my daughter was looking after covid patients, NONE of them have been vaccinated and despite being relatively young, on Friday they nearly "lost" some patients. I am not saying they had been partially or incompletely vaccinated, they had NOT been vaccinated. I asked daughter if she thought they might want to be vaccinated now and she said some wouldn't be around to get a second chance! Treatment for covid is much better now, the majority of patients who go into hospital are relatively short stay and don't end up in ICU but if they go into an ICU, they are very sick and if they get intubated (which is what daughter was doing) they are extremely sick. Your reply sounded rather patronising!

Whatever the case, vaccinated or not, it seems like a confidentiality clause may have been broken. Whatever happened to not discussing patients outside work time. Used to be a disciplinary offence.

Ohh, good point Lincslass!

I had a letter this morning from the NHS requesting me to have a second vaccination. It states that it won't be an AZ one as in my first which had bad side-effects, so something, nearly a year later, has told them that the AZ vaccine wasn't suitable for all. A bit late for those who died ?

Whether I take this up is debateable as it's left to me where I go for this jab as there's no set place as was with the first. I can even go to my surgery.
I can't see me going this side of Christmas in case it backfires on me as it causes a double whammy such as a disturbance in my system which in turns brings on an A/F episode which invariably requires a few hours in resus. I can't win.

Hospital is the last place I'd want to be as for sure Covid will be lurking like it was in 2019 !

Alegrias1

Ohh, good point Lincslass!

No names, hospital not identified, and a general comment. If it breaks any code so does this comment, reported by the BBC!
Dr Ewen Cameron, of Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, said: "About 80% of patients we've seen over the last few months in general wards and critical care have been unvaccinated."

For information

www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/e7be23e7-695f-ec11-9139-00505601089b

foxie48

Alegrias1

Ohh, good point Lincslass!

No names, hospital not identified, and a general comment. If it breaks any code so does this comment, reported by the BBC!
Dr Ewen Cameron, of Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, said: "About 80% of patients we've seen over the last few months in general wards and critical care have been unvaccinated."

I can't see how it can be a breach of patient confidentiality.

Both our heads of ICU have been on TV often discussing the situation in detail. One ICU made a film in the Unit which was widely broadcast at the start of the pandemic.

foxie48

Alegrias1

Ohh, good point Lincslass!

No names, hospital not identified, and a general comment. If it breaks any code so does this comment, reported by the BBC!
Dr Ewen Cameron, of Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, said: "About 80% of patients we've seen over the last few months in general wards and critical care have been unvaccinated."

I'm a South Westerner, as opposed to a Sou'wester, and we spread over 8 counties I believe and have many hospitals. We aren't some little tin pot backwater. I really can't see any breach of confidentiality!

Oh for goodness sake.

Nobody named, we don't know which hospital it is. Perhaps you're all happy with your doctors telling their mums that their patients are going to die.

The doctors I know wouldn't even socialise in a place where they might meet a patient. But clearly talking to the BBC and your mum is OK with the latest generation. Must just be me then.