This independent report published by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) makes the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) methodology and the reasons for the change in policy very clear.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccination-in-2025-and-spring-2026-jcvi-advice/jcvi-statement-on-covid-19-vaccination-in-2025-and-spring-2026#advice-on-vaccination-in-autumn-2025-and-spring-2026
What follows are extracts and I would urge people to read the whole document.
Over the last 4 years, population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 has been increasing due to a combination of naturally acquired immunity following recovery from infection and vaccine-derived immunity. The combination is termed ‘hybrid immunity’.
COVID-19 vaccines have limited to no effectiveness against infection, COVID-19 is relatively common and may manifest as a mild illness for most individuals. Consequently, many people who are hospitalised or who die during a period when SARS-CoV-2 is circulating in the community may have a concurrent SARS-CoV-2 infection that may not be the primary cause of their serious illness.
Data on hospital admissions in the UK is consistent with the clinical risk being highest in those aged 80 years and older.
Epidemiological analyses continue to indicate multiple, small waves throughout the year, with no firm evidence of seasonality. The Respiratory DataMart sentinel system indicated that SARS-CoV-2 peak positivity was lower than the peaks of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and rhinovirus in winter season 2023 to 2024.
Hospital admission rates were lower overall in the 2023 to 2024 season than previous years, with flatter peaks of hospitalisations over longer time periods, continuing the declining trend seen since 2020 as population immunity has increased.
A similar pattern was seen in intensive care unit and high dependency unit admission rates, with very low baseline rates of COVID-19 and no obvious sharp peaks in admission. This is in contrast to influenza admissions data, which signals a large seasonal peak in the winter that declines to near zero for the rest of the year.
Currently, the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the UK does not display strong seasonal features; waves of infection are present throughout the year. There is, however, still merit in a seasonal offer of COVID-19 vaccines to reduce the risk of co-infection with other winter viruses to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on NHS services during winter.
The use of cost-effectiveness is a key pillar in the consideration of immunisation programmes, ensuring that the substantial investments in the programmes are a good use of public money, and that those funds would not be better spent on other healthcare interventions. This has led to a more refined approach to the targeting of the COVID-19 immunisation programme, with a focus on individuals where there is good evidence of a high risk of hospitalisation and/or mortality.
JCVI has no role in the procurement or delivery of COVID-19 vaccines or any other vaccine.The exact price paid for vaccines used in future programmes will be dependent on the procurement process run by the UK Health Security Agency and these commercially confidential prices will not be made available to JCVI. The deployment costs of the programme per person are also variable, with the minimum cost being the relevant item of service fee (for example £10.04). Given these variables, the actual size of a cost-effective programme may be slightly smaller or larger than this advice specifies. DHSC should aim to deliver a programme which is cost-effective, as determined by the latest modelling results from the University of Warwick and based on the price of the vaccine and the cost of delivery.
Using an example cost of £25 for the combined cost of vaccine product and delivery, JCVI advises COVID-19 vaccination of:
• all those aged 75 years and over
• all residents in a care home for older adults
• all individuals aged 6 months and over who are immunosuppressed
In accordance with the modelling undertaken by the University of Warwick, in the situation of a lower-than-example cost JCVI advises extending the universal offer to include people aged 70 to 74 years.
If pharmarcies are charging £100, that suggests the cost per vaccination unit is £90.
There are around 3.5 million people in the UK age 70-74 so it would cost 350 million to vaccinate them all. The cost of paying the WFP to all pensioner households is around 3 billion. I doubt the decision was anything to do with that unless a heating allowance is deemed a healthcare intervention which it isn’t. It’s deemed a pension supplement.
It’s more likely money saved has been put into increasing the uptake of the flu and pneumonia jab, infections that are more likely to lead to a hospital admission.
Like all cost measures, there’s a cut off point that leaves a demographic feeling aggrieved. If the 70-74 age group was included, people 65-69 would feel aggrieved just as pensioners last year on the cliff edge of means-tested benefits were aggrieved about the WFP.
In summary, Covid is with us year round. There’s no winter peak. Vaccination won’t stop someone from catching it. Acquired hybrid immunity built up over the last five years will mean if someone does catch it, they are unlikely to be very ill. If someone is under 80 with no underlying health condition(s), the chances of being hospitalised and dying from Covid is now slim. Vaccinating people age 75 and over allows a margin for that.