The EU - we are on the home straight folks!

"UK research suggests that immigration has a small impact on average wages of existing workers but more significant effects for certain groups: low-wage workers lose while medium and high-paid workers gain.
The wage effects of immigration are likely to be greatest for resident workers who are migrants themselves.
Research does not find a significant impact of overall immigration on unemployment in the UK, but the evidence suggests that immigration from outside the EU could have a negative impact on the employment of UK-born workers, especially during an economic downturn."

From this fullfact article.

fullfact.org/immigration/immigration-and-jobs-labour-market-effects-immigration/

Interesting to note that the biggest effect on wages is for workers who are immigrants themselves, not the indigenous population.

@Gracesgran

I agree with you that immigration causes problems in some quite small areas. However, leaving the EU wouldn't necessarily change that. EU immigrants tend to come to the UK for work, so they will naturally go to areas where there is work which suits them. There are relatively few EU immigrants on Mersayside, because unemployment is high. There is a high number of low-skilled immigrants in the East of England, because there is an abundance of farm work with few people wanting to do it. There are many immigrants in places such as Cambridge, because there are vacancies for high-skilled scientific, technological and medical staff...and so it goes on.

If we do leave the EU, Cambridge and the East of England will really suffer. People aren't suddenly going to want to do low paid farm work and the UK just doesn't have the high skilled people needed in Cambridge. Wealthier areas are going to struggle to find people to do work such as caring, cleaning and catering.

If businesses find that labour costs are too high in the UK, they will move abroad to places where costs are lower or they will go bankrupt, which means there won't be any jobs. This is what has already happened to much of British manufacturing and has nothing to do with the EU.

If anybody missed John Major on Andrew Marr, this is a clip of the main part of what he said:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36454732

John Major is one of the few Conservative politicians I have any time for, especially since he's left the Commons. He's one of the few politicians (of any party) who has a genuine claim to be a 'common man' and I think he speaks honestly, even though I don't always agree with his opinions. He doesn't have any time for the new 'personalities' in the Conservative Party. In this case, he's not giving opinions, but facts.

Jen I am afraid facts like that will not change people's minds. I have found the most xenophobic when it comes to immigration are people, in my case of the older, white, male variety, who have few immigrants in their area. If people living in an area where they feel wages have been held down by migrants those running the "in" campaign would have to show that any disadvantage comes from the policies of the government - they are not going to do that are they?

daphne I agree with you that leaving will not solved the perceived problems but I do think we need to understand why people feel as they do.

Unfortunately you are probably right, Gracesgran.
I have just read today that the Brexit vote is ahead by three points now, because of their focus on immigration over the last two weeks.

Whitewave, this is an article that supports your views on environmental issues.

northeastlabour.eu/local-euro-mp-takes-plunge-bathing-water-quality
I bet it was cold!

www.globaljustice.org.uk/resources/migrant-crisis-or-poverty-crisis

Unfortunately those wanting Brexit will not realise that the problem is poverty, not immigration.

Just been reading an article about migrants landing on the beaches of East Anglia. Because of cuts to the border forces, there are no patrols in East Anglia. The officers have to come from Hull.
Whoever voted for this government voted for this, but obviously they do not realise it.

It was said on the news last week France has twenty border controls vessels, we have one - in the channel

@Gracesgran

Once again I agree with you and I do try to understand why people think as they do. The trouble is that if you try to explain facts, you then get accused of 'talking down' to people. People's long held views are very hard to change, especially when the core reason of those views isn't totally rational.

I agree with you that the most xenophobic are likely to be those living in areas of low immigration and who are, therefore, least likely to be affected. Ironic, isn't it?

www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016/06/05/on-experts/

On Gove's ideas.

Unfortunately it appears that UKIP leader Farage has been proved right. Xenophobia and racism is what is going to win it. The Brexiters have joined forces with this ultra right wing ideology. Of course post referendum they will back tract as fast as possible, but they ought to feel ashamed of themselves. The same excuses are being wheeled out that have been used over the past century. It is tacky and utterly unpleasant.

They have lost the economic argument and this is the result.

@durhamjen

You're right. It's downright stupidity to cut resources to border control. On another thread, people have mentioned Albanians in South Essex. Some of them are illegal immigrants (especially the criminal ones) and have been smuggled in by gangs operating on the East coast. Albania isn't even in the EU, so leaving would make no difference to their smuggling.

The fact is that these people, Albanian, Turkish or whatever, are criminals and we need law enforcement agencies to deal with them. For the most part they've muscled in on crime which was already being perpetuated by 'indigenous' Brits. Police forces and border control have had their resources slashed. It really is about time taxes were raised (and collected) to pay for the services the country needs.

Leaving the EU wouldn't improve the situation. What the country needs is BETTER cooperation and information sharing, not worse.

I haven't seen Farage on TV for a while - keeping a low profile - but I think he is being interviewed by Andrew Neil towards the end on the week - Hilary Benn kicks it off on Monday

@whitewave

I agree. It has always been about xenophobia, despite the denial of so many. It's a crying shame, because younger people (the ones who will have to live with the decision for much longer) tend to be less xenophobic and racist than the more elderly.

Ultra right ideology and 'forgotten' working class are a dangerous combination. That's why historians are so much against leaving the EU.

PS. Please note I didn't actually invoke Godwin's Law.

ukandeu.ac.uk/fact-figures/
Lots of questions answered on here.

One on immigration and leaving the EU.
ukandeu.ac.uk/fact-figures/would-leaving-the-eu-reduce-migration-to-the-uk/

Gracesgran, there are a few more reports like this on this website.

ukandeu.ac.uk/research-papers/uk-regions-the-european-union-and-manufacturing-exports/

Some very interesting research papers.

Thanks Jen.

I find this a convincing article about why Corbyn is now in the remain camp.

ukandeu.ac.uk/the-labour-party-and-european-integration-since-1989/

Looks like Sadiq Khan could be facing Boris Johnson in the final debate. Because Cameron copped out.

I can understand why he doesn't want direct blue on blue and I am sure, from his point of view, it is the right decision but the distraction from something even more important than the Conservative party is not helping people decide.

The problem is not that he has decided he will not debate with Boris, but that he will not debate at all. The next time he is on TV he is on his own, too, taking questions from the audience. He and Gove are going to be questioned on separate occasions. He's obviously frightened of having a head to head again, but in that case, why use him at all?
In fact Remain might be better if it wasn't seen as the split faction to Gove and Johnson, therefore both he and Osborne should back off.
What's wrong is that Cameron is deciding the terms in all these debates.

"The NHS would be as safe as a pet hamster in the presence of a hungry python if Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Iain Duncan Smith rose to power following Brexit, Sir John Major has said.

In an extraordinary attack on his fellow Conservatives, Major produced a withering assessment of leading members of Vote Leave, calling their campaign deceitful, untrue, depressing, awful and “verging on the squalid”. "

Did you see John Major on Marr's show?

Gove wants to privatise the NHS.
Johnson wants to charge people for using it.
IDS wants an insurance based system.

Just realised, daphne, you put it higher up the thread. Sorry.
But it is worth repeating.

John Major always gives a measured comment on the issues of the day (when asked). I think he was quite a wise PM because he did not make too many sudden changes to the way the country is run. These were very strong words from him.
My view on immigration is that it will carry on at the level the economy requires. Some businesses will suffer because it will be much harder for them to fill vacancies and use labour in a flexible manner (in horticulture for instance).
Other less scrupulous businesses will be shipping in staff from emerging economies like India and Indonesia and exploiting them. A post-exit tory government would be perfectly happy with that, and indeed, encourage it.

He must feel he can say things current Conservatives can't but the hamster etc., did make me smile.

If he thinks they are going to be so right wing ...