The EU - we are on the home straight folks!

I watched that programme last night GandTea but came no nearer a conclusion.

I don't think replacing migrant workers with returning Brits would be anything but lose/lose. At least the migrants contribute to the economy, returning Brits would just clog up the NHS etc even more.

And put up house prices.

I see the Brexiters are busy forming a new government and making policy.

Retuerning Brits would be mainly older people, of retirement age and with all sorts of health issues which would indeed put a lot of pressure on the NHS (like OH and I) - and who would not be able or indeed willing to do the jobs the migrants do.

Many would have lost all in the venture, as houses in Spain or rural France are worth very little, if they can sell at all- and come back empty handed, needing all sorts of financial and social support too.

The first part relates to us 2, the second not, thank goodness- and we are very lucky to have a holiday apartment int he UK we could move straight back in, if we had to.

Here in Switzerland most of the British expats are either in IT, banking, teachers or doctors. So I can't imagine the IT and bankers picking fruit and veg- and there is NO way the teachers or doctors would ever go back to work in the UK - with poor salaries, much longer hours and responsibilites and much lower pensions- they make this clear all the time.

Anyone watch Giles Brandreth on HIGNFY? Loved his comments about no-one really knowing anything and likening it to the decision on the ERM. "We didn't know beforehand what would happen, we didn't know what was happening when it was going through and afterwards we still didn't know what had happened." Just about sums up this referendum as well.

DH tells me that a bookmaker was on the Radio yesterday saying that the odds on us leaving the EU are 11/1 on ! I'm not sure I have that right but what he meant was that there is loads of money being bet on us leaving.

Bookies odds reflect the behaviour of the betting public which may not be exactly a representative cross section.
Well Mr Brandreth I think the unknowns are more on one side than the other.
Remain - business as usual
Leave - absolutely terrifying lack of crystal ball. All we do know is that vast majority of the world's independent economists and economic forecasting bodies are saying we will at best have a mini-recession.
And we are in such robust financial health already as a nation.

Something that I picked up yesterday that had not occurred to me: We all know that we are a single market in the EU so no trade barriers with other EU countries. However the EU negotiates trade deals with other countries as a single entity. Once a deal has been struck, we in the UK have access to that deal. As the EU is the biggest economic unit on the planet, EU negotiators have considerable clout in these negotiations (everyone wants to sell to the EU market). If we leave, we will lose out on all the preferential deals that have been struck in the past, and (as Obama rightly pointed out) we will be at the back of the queue as our inexperienced civil servants start their first tentative negotiations from scratch, with both EU ad non EU countries. The EU has been negotiating with Canada, for example for 8 years now and has just struck a deal soon to be implemented. ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/
So other EU countries would be happily benefiting from a preferential deal with Canada and we would be 9-10 years behind them.

I have to say we are getting seriously concerned now and on tenderhooks, for the UK and our children and grandchildren- but also personally as if it goest through it will very seriously affect us personally

Since the latest poll, the £ has already started to plummet!

I'm a complete fool, just looked in my diary and have seen that I have booked to go away Monday 20th through to Saturday 25th. I ask myself how the 23rd didn't resonate with me when I made the booking, husband says he takes 50% of the blame because I checked the dates with him at the time and said "yes that sounds ok" What a pair of idiots Have just looked on government website and according to that we can apply for postal votes up until 8 June. Applications for these are in the post so hope that we get our postal vote asap.

Oh dear I have this awful feeling it is going the way of the election.
I worry for my daughters job - she gets research funding from the EU.
I worry about my sons job - the environment agency will be toast. Goodness knows what will happen to flood management and all the expertise built up over the years.
I worry about my cousins daughter who is being funded by the EU in a Swedish University.
I worry about the economy and the almost inevitable worsening - it is already slowing down.
I worry about the lessening of our human rights
There is so much to worry about.

I AM CHEESED OFF!

I see the Brexiters are busy forming a new government and making policy. I am glad I am not the only one who noticed that whitewave. What a cheek. They are not in government and may never be in government and whoever is in government may do something entirely different.

I am getting angrier and angrier that this vast waste of money and time ever happened. We voted these guys in to take these decisions and DC has used it - and us - to try and keep power to himself while the other half of the conservative party are using it and us to try and grab power.

Instead of getting out there and giving us a strong voice within the EU MPs behave as if they are running the local council and need to get re-elected to that.

My postal vote arrived this morning so I will get it off asap and then try not to waste any more of my time on the idiots who have got us into the position.

There is such scaremongering about the immigrants. The Brexit camp now seemed to have stopped talking anything but this and is causing such worry everywhere. It is worrying that so many of the UK population just go with what these people are saying than find anything out for themselves - i can only think that they are reading just the misleading paper headlines and are not watching any serious TV reporting on the situation.

Not giving an opinion one way or the other, but in the words of Dad's Army "Don't panic, Mr Mainwaring"
June 24 will dawn whatever and 25 and even IF the vote is to leave NOTHING will change in the immediate future. I would be interested to know what lies in store for the UK if we remain. DC didn't negotiate a ha'porth of beans in his much-hyped discussions.
You could of course prefer the other well known Dad's Army catchphrase "We're all DOOMED!" , but I think not.

I think you will find that things will change quickly if we exit, the stock markets are already dropping, getting very twitchy.

Alea would love to know what facts you are basing your 'nothing will change' comment on???

As GandTea, the £ is already falling fast and the UK based stock exchange. Hold on to your knicker elastics I say

What make you think you will be able to afford elastic ?

We know that nothing will happen in the immediate future if we stay in. If however we vote to go out, it is not a question of being all doomed, but a rational choice. We haven't got a crystal ball and as this has never been done before it is very difficult to predict.If the doom merchants do indeed prove to be right, then what an appalling future.
It is like throwing the baby out with the bath water.
Control the free movement of people and lose the benefits of the single market.
Take back our apparent loss of sovereignty, and lose workers protection, environmental protection and human rights
Be free to trade with the rest of the world - lose the benefit of being part of the largest economic block in the world
Set up an Australian points system, and lose the cooperation with the EU over the refugee problem.
Stop paying our membership fee to the club and lose the influence and right to veto any conditions they impose on those who wish to trade with them.
And on and on.

I have a postal vote so that I do not have to mix with the plebs at the polling station dj, well you did ask

As far as I can see, if we come out the things we don't want to change will change - our influence, the stockmarkets, our incomes and the value of our pensions and the things some do want to change will not change. We will need just as many immigrants and just as many will want to emigrate - oh but they won't easily be able to will they. The xenophobes will still be outraged - especially those living in areas with few immigrants and this government will use its power to make the poor poorer and not provide for the services a modern government should be providing and they will continue to blame everyone and his dog but not their own politics.

In the immediate future was what I sad GJ.
Were it to be the case, we would be looking at a lengthy process of discussion, negotiation, new trade agreements etc.
These things do not happen overnight.

harrigran

With boats of people arriving in the UK has anyone any idea what we will do if having exited the EU this becomes a regular occurrence. Our EU ex-partners aren't going to help us out. Will we have to set up camps on the southern coast to house these people? And what will the cost be? I've yet to hear any Brexiters actually say how they will deal with any illegal immigrants, just that they will close the borders. They don't seem to realise quite how much coastline that involves.