Summary of Professor Micael Dougan on EU law and the imminent referendum

3 topics which are prominent in this campaign.

1 Sovereignty
Britain is a sovereign state, making its own laws. Westminster is the paramount law-making authority of the country.
The EU is not a sovereign state. The only powers it has are those it has been given under treaties. If UK courts sometimes put EU law before UK law it is because the Uk parliament has told them to.
Sovereignty is not the issue, it is shorthand for power and influence. In joining ANY organisation, there is a trade-off between influence and obligations. In leaving an organisation, you give up your power to influence it. Leaving the EU would mean giving up all power to influence it, or share in its influence in the world - which is immense.

2 Us v them
We are not tiny and insignificant and swamped by a juggernaut. We are in the Big Three - UK, France, Germany - and have a big say in political, economic and diplomatic matters, influencing agendas, alliances, and compromises. The 28 members discuss things, and decisions are taken mostly by consensus, when details have been ironed out by negotiation.

Good work

3 -"No evidence"-
There is stacks of evidence. For example, the "Balance of Competence Review" between 2012 and 2014, the largest ever survey of how member states are affected. One of the largest projects ever undertaken by the Civil Servants of this country, involving 2300 written documents, 100s of stakeholder reports, a lopt of public meetings. and running to 32 reports, taking up a whole library shelf, on the single market, emi- and immi- gration, trade, asylum, energy etc etc. The conclusion in every section is "What is the problem?".

(LInks to all the 32 reports can be followed at www.gov.uk/guidance/review-of-the-balance-of-competences
Here are some of the reports
Single market
Free movement of persons
Asylum and non-EU migration
trade and investment
And no, I have not yet read these reports, because I did not know until I watched the video that they existed.)

BRAVO ET MERCI X

It is not that there is no evidence, it is that our media would rather give us highly coloured soundbites than read and digest a report and give us a proper account of it. Also there is no newsworthiness in "It is all going rather well"

Don't feel ignored as we are watching the great debate

He doesn't think the EU is perfect, and it is the job of people like him to criticise, analyse policies, look at competences, and see whether it is doing what it promised, in the interests of member states.

That is not to question its very existence, or to make things up as they go along. He finds many of the claims of the leave campaign to be at best seriously deluded, at worst dishonest.

*The immediate future* if we leave
No-one has a clue. anyone who says they have detailed knowledge of what will happen is seriously deluded.

Howevever, basic constitutional principles in the UK and EU, and international trading law gives some idea.

1 Internally
A comprehensive review of the UK legal system after 40 years to disentangle UK and EU law. Would have to be quick, and there is no way parliament could manage it, so it would have to be delegated (and would keep him in business for years) Parliament would have to make policy decisions on whole fields of law. Jeremy Corbyn was right when he said it would be a fast, short, sharp review. Whole swathes of legislation on workers, consumers, the environment, would be deeply affected.

2 Constitutional makeup of the UK

Far-reaching constitutional change.
Strong possibility of second Scottish referendum.
Could be consequences in N. I. where he absence of a border is part of the peace process.

3 Externally
The 2 years often quoted is NOT to reformulate relationship with EU, it is to make our divorce settlement. This is completely separate legally, procedurally and institutionally. This 2 years is to settle things like what to do with the 3 million EU nationals living working and studying in the Uk and the 2 million UK nationals living working and studying in the EU - what will be their position regarding residency, employment, social security etc.

Future relations form a separate challege, which will take at least 10 years, based on similar experiences. For instance the Swiss started in 1972 and are still at it, having negotiated over 100 separate treaties.

Still here

4 The single market
Dominating external issues are trade relations, on which both sides of this campaign are poorly informed.
The Single Market is the most advanced trade agreement on the planet. It sets out to tackle regulatory barriers - detailed barriers to trade between countries, caused by difference in the laws of each country on how items must comply with all kinds of regulations. The SM overcomes these barriers. Manufacture something to suit one country, you can sell it in all. A unique achievement.

To retain this if we left, we would have to go the Norwegian route - do everything the EU says, have no inpit in the rules, and still pay a whopping membership fee for the privilege. It is even unlikely the deal would be offered, as it is conditional on accepting the free movement of persons. so "leave" means "Goodbye single Market"

Other alternatives - do as Swiss, Mexicans, South Koreans have done - base a narrower relationship on a bilateral agreement - or go through ordinary rules of World Trade Organisation.

No automatic rights within EU for businesses - all economists agree that the trade environment will become signifacantly less favourable.

Well done Elegran.

5 The rest of the world
Beyond all doubt, all of the UK's trade agreements will terminate if we leave the EU, because they were all made in connection with the EU. We will be back to square one. We will not be free to trade anywhere.

The Uk probably does not have the diplomatic or Civil Service capacity to negotiate more than one or two agreements at the same time, let alone 60 or 70.

And we don't have an awful lot to offer, as we are already a very open economy. What we do now is to bargain away our trade with Italy, Spain, Portugal, Rumania etc to get access to other people's markets. If we are not part of the single Market, we won't have that to bargain with.

Other countries will not enter into bilateral agreements until they know what our trading relationship with the EU will be, and until they know their own position with the EU. so they will wait. That is the official position with America, China and India to say the least.

Finally, he says that the EU is free of problems, but it is easier to do a good job on the inside than on the outside.

Thanks Elegran

Please may I get my supper now and go to bed? My head is spinning.

You may.
Thanks for all that, Elegran.

Oh God. Am I supposed to read all that now?

Just read the last one at 22:31:47 jings

You might find it easier to watch the video with your pj's on and a mug in your hand.

The timescale for getting back on a trading footing with the EU countries and the rest of the world seems to be:-

Two years to get divorced from the EU.

Then ten years at least to do all the renegotiating of our trading with the EU, which can't start until we have completely left.

Then God knows how long to renegotiate our trading terms with the rest of the world, once they know what our trading relationship is with the EU. (That is the official position of America, China and India, to name but a few)

Total at least fifteen years before we are trading normally again, probably more. I won't still be around then to cheer, I'll be 92 by then.

I salute you Elegran - I watched that video a few days ago and think you've done a great job of summarising it. [doffs hat]