I found the article interesting. People look back at history and it all seems so obvious why things happened. However, at the time, people didn't realise what was happening, eg. The English Civil War, the French Reign of Terror, Nazi Germany, the Middle East Crisis. However, some people were aware what was happening and did try to warn others, but they were dismissed as doom-mongerers.
The catalyst for WW1 happened in Sarajevo, but it wouldn't have led to war, if the conditions hadn't been right. It might not be possible to stop the catalysts, but the conditions can be controlled. I remember watching an interview with Paddy Ashdown (about 2010), when he said that Ukraine was likely to be the touch paper for trouble in Europe. The other people in the discussion almost laughed at him, but I think he was right.
I really hope future historians don't look back at our era and discuss the reasons why some (yet unknown) catastrophe happened.