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Article 50

(860 Posts)
Mair Thu 26-Jan-17 14:36:09

Well its been announced that Jeremy Corbyn is applying a three line whip to his MPs to make them support the triggering of article 50.

I admire Jeremy for this, it's an act of leadership, and it could save Labours bacon in the many Northern Brexit seats that they hold, so in that sense I am not entirely pleased because it will weaken UKIPs chances. It will also weaken Paul Nuttalls chances in Stoke.

What do the Bremain Labour supporters on GN feel about this?

durhamjen Fri 10-Feb-17 00:18:50

She probably got it from the Daily Mail.

www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/feb/08/wikipedia-bans-daily-mail-as-unreliable-source-for-website

Mair Fri 10-Feb-17 01:57:57

Well I had never heard of the fact she was giving - it is a very interesting one and wondered about the source of the info

I have come across many sources over th last decade, much of it anecdotal, butt if you want some stats take a look here:

Oxford University's Migration Observatory

how many EU migrants are not originally from Europe. They found that 141,000 people, 7% of those who came to the UK under EU rules were born outside the continent. Somalis are one of the biggest such groups, with an estimated 20,000 coming to the UK from the Netherlands alone. Studies show that between one third and a half of the entire Dutch Somali community has moved to the UK
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jan/28/british-dream-europe-african-citizens

Given that the Netherlands has been one of the largest receivers of Somali refugees thats a lot of the Somalis here. ManY Swedish Somalis have moved too.

Mair Fri 10-Feb-17 02:05:29

DJ reveals her prejudices - again

"She probably got it from the Daily Mail"

You couldnt be more wrong!.grin

JessM Fri 10-Feb-17 07:03:16

Have to say I have assessed thousands of job applications from immigrants. There was certainly no pattern of people coming from third world countries with EU passports. Very rare indeed.

durhamjen Fri 10-Feb-17 09:21:39

Exactly, Jess.
You said, Mair, that they came in using EU passports.
Can you please point out where in that link it says that?

durhamjen Fri 10-Feb-17 09:23:01

By the way, anyone coming to Britain has to pass through Europe unless they are rich enough to fly here. That link is from 2013 and the stats start 2001. Anything more up-to-date?

Mair Fri 10-Feb-17 09:36:11

"Have to say I have assessed thousands of job applications from immigrants. There was certainly no pattern of people coming from third world countries with EU passports. Very rare indeed.

I hardly think job applications (whatever sector you worked in) would necessarily accurately reflect the percentage of EU immigrants born outside the EU, nor would you have been monitoring that and consequenttly would have no recall of it if it had.hmm

I would prefer the evidence from the Oxford Migration Obssrvatory that 7% of EU immigrants were born outside the EU. Especially as it is backed by a wealth of looser anecdotal evidence of large numbers of third country nationals with an EU passport.

Mair Fri 10-Feb-17 09:48:43

Many of the large numbers of Brazilians in London most of who arrived post millenium for example got here thanks to Portuguese or Spanish passports (Spain has given three amnesties to illegals many of whom came from Portugal).

Read this supporting article.

"Brazilians can blag a Portuguese passport on the flimsiest of ancestral grounds, so many thousands of them who drift into London are technically classed as EU citizens, and are therefore barely acknowledged statistically".
www.spectator.co.uk/2014/09/rich-boys-from-brazil/

As well as Brazilians we have Africans from France Belgium and Italy, Iraqis and Somalis from Sweden and Netherlands, Maghrebis and West Indians from France, to name the major groups.

Welshwife Fri 10-Feb-17 10:33:14

The Colonial past of many European countries is the reason for people having EU passports - many Indians have British passports -- all to do with the Raj etc. These people are free to travel and settle anywhere in the EU.
Do the statistics show how many are second or third generation EU citizens?

Joelsnan Fri 10-Feb-17 15:34:32

Did anyone watch the BBC2 programme last night, 9:00pm...After Brexit: The Battle for Europe. Katy's Adler who is the EU correspondent travelled around Europe speaking to politicians and the everyday Joe's on their perception of the EU and where it heading. A very interesting programme which gives a wider perspective to the Brexit arguments.
Worth a watch.

Welshwife Fri 10-Feb-17 15:47:11

I have seen comments from people who live in the places she went to - I did not see the programme - and all of them said it was not a true reflection and it was very biased.

durhamjen Fri 10-Feb-17 15:54:40

What do you think, Mair, to all the thousands of UK citizens who are applying for EU citizenship?

petra Fri 10-Feb-17 17:01:47

joelsnan I watched it and thought it showed exactly what people are thinking. I think the eu should be very worried about the 5 star movement in Italy.
I've been reading about the alliance between the 4 eastern block countries and it looks like they're on our side Re brexit.
Some of the comments from the eu leaders were very interesting: they know they're in trouble.

durhamjen Fri 10-Feb-17 17:03:35

This is an interesting report on what MPs think of Brexit.

ukandeu.ac.uk/profound-divisions-among-mps-over-brexit-survey-reveals/

It's amazing how many Tories wanted to remain.

nigglynellie Fri 10-Feb-17 17:13:05

But ordinary people didn't!

petra Fri 10-Feb-17 17:41:48

Very good *niggly smile

Jalima Fri 10-Feb-17 17:45:16

Which proves just how out of touch they were with their constituents.

Our Tory MP wanted to exit but the constituents voted to remain. There were calls for his resignation.

petra Fri 10-Feb-17 17:45:39

What surprised me with the brexit programme, was, that it was the BBC that aired it.
It was only a couple of years ago that they could talk about immigration.

durhamjen Fri 10-Feb-17 18:32:33

Which is why I said it was interesting. Lots of Tory MPs must have had real conflicts in the vote on Wednesday.

This is an article about the small impact that immigration has had on the UK, collecting lots of information from different sources.

data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/home-affairs-committee/immigration/written/45077.pdf

They find that a 1% increase in migrant population results in a 2% increase in GDP.

Joelsnan Fri 10-Feb-17 18:53:35

Durhamjen
The mentioned 2% increase in GDP if offset by the cost of residency in the UK would probably show a negative benefit. The additional housing, education, health, social benefits and other services,plus the need to import food and goods adding to more waste and sewage must be factored in.
If all of the immigrants were within the high income brackets these costs would eventually be mitigated through income tax payments, however a vast majority are in the mid to low income brackets where there is often little or no tax paid and high benefit received. Ideally immigrants should have an overall positive impact both to the economy and to the workplace with specialist skills that are not met by the indigenous population.

JessM Fri 10-Feb-17 19:08:26

Most economists agree that immigrants and immigration have a positive impact on the economy.
(Just as most MPs have a better understanding of the EU than the average in their constituency.)
Japan's economy is shrinking because they are not admitting immigrants.
fortune.com/2014/11/20/japan-immigration-economy/
America's vast economy based on ... guess what... immigrants.

durhamjen Fri 10-Feb-17 19:23:15

Sorry, Joelsnan, but evidence shows that even low income migrants have a positive effect on the economy and on society as a whole.

Migrants do not receive benefits.
We import 90% of our fruit and 50% of our vegetables. I doubt whether migrants affect to that extent.
Do you have any proof for your assertions?

Joelsnan Fri 10-Feb-17 19:32:23

JessM re the economists positive view of immigration, it depends on the data input to achieve the results, my argument is yes the economy may benefit but is this offst by the cost incurred by hosting the immigrants, it would be interesting to know if the cost of a standard family has ever been quantified does anyone know?

durhamjen Fri 10-Feb-17 19:38:45

The link I gave was evidence given to the home affairs parliamentary committee. Jonathan Portes looked at all the studies from 1999 to 2015 or 6.
He said that many people were surprised at the findings, as they expected there to be a negative effect, because that's what the media told them.

MawBroon Fri 10-Feb-17 19:43:56

Mair has been uncharacteristically reticent both on this thread and the refugee topic today. .
I suppose it is conceivable she may have chosen to have a little "time out"? hmm