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Snap election - could TM have seriously miscalculated?

(142 Posts)
MawBroon Sun 28-May-17 07:33:39

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/who-will-win-general-election-2017-latest-polls-odds-tracker/

Everybody (including the government) has seemed seemed to assume the Tories were on track for a landslide victory but current opinion polls suggest Labour is closing the gap. Support for Jeremy Corbyn is increasing especially among women and the projections suggest he will do better than Miliband.
Now, it could be one of several things
Fear of the consequences of a massive Tory majority
Distrust of May in the Brexit negotiations (and they will go ahead I assume )
I think hopes of a U turn there are misguided and in any case the resulting uncertainty and confusion would be catastrophic for the economy. The damage has been done there.
Maybe women don't like a "bloody difficult woman"
Or is it the twinkly eyes and the beard?

durhamjen Sun 04-Jun-17 16:32:24

Yes, that's what I thought, GracesGran.
I hope their students take notice.

GracesGranMK2 Sun 04-Jun-17 16:27:17

Interesting list of signatures Jen.

durhamjen Sun 04-Jun-17 16:16:49

Brilliant timing.

www.theguardian.com/news/2017/jun/03/the-big-issue-labour-manifesto-what-economy-needs

Anniebach Sun 04-Jun-17 13:15:05

Didn't say you did the polls Jen,n I never bother checking them, I did object to you comparing a country with a city and suggested you compare two cities

durhamjen Sun 04-Jun-17 13:01:06

Someone got it right.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2017/jun/04/theresa-may-slithers-through-the-political-jungle

daphnedill Sun 04-Jun-17 12:50:06

The polls are all over the place, ranging from 12 point to 1 point lead for the Conservatives. In the end, it depends on seats and the number of tactical votes. The number of 18-24 year olds who actually vote could also make a difference.

durhamjen Sun 04-Jun-17 12:22:58

Interesting polls about number of seats by yougov.
Tories will not have majority, but with Northern Ireland or SNP could form a government.
I wonder what will happen then.

daphnedill Sun 04-Jun-17 12:18:54

Some people could start an argument in an empty room.

daphnedill Sun 04-Jun-17 12:17:20

One person's view of the situation in Wales:

www.newstatesman.com/long-reads

Anniebach Sun 04-Jun-17 12:16:47

Disappoint me? Good grief why would I disappointed over anything which is of no interest to me .jen.?

durhamjen Sun 04-Jun-17 12:16:19

I didn't do the polls, Annie. I am sure you can find what you want if you look.

Anniebach Sun 04-Jun-17 12:14:26

But not England and Wales, and why not Cardiff and London? Both are capital cities

durhamjen Sun 04-Jun-17 12:12:24

Oh, and some of my family were born in Wales and have really Welsh names. Sorry about that. I know it will disappoint you.

durhamjen Sun 04-Jun-17 12:10:46

Did I compare Wales and London?
Thought not.
I was just saying that LABOUR ARE GOING TO WIN IN BOTH LONDON AND WALES.

That, to me, is a reason to rejoice. You do whatever you like, Annie. Sackcloth and ashes?

Anniebach Sun 04-Jun-17 12:02:09

And Jen, perhaps you need to speak to your family who have moved to Wales, they may help you understand there is a difference between a country and just one English city

rosesarered Sun 04-Jun-17 12:01:05

Ourkid I'm afraid it's not looking at all good for the Lib Dems.

rosesarered Sun 04-Jun-17 11:58:52

That will be Brighton then?

whitewave Sun 04-Jun-17 11:56:38

My Tory candidate believes in the power of prayer to cure the LGBT community.

grin

Anniebach Sun 04-Jun-17 11:54:54

Unlike you .jen who know all, I have no idea what every Welsh voter will vote firm I do know Carwyn launched the election campaign, I do read his emails and am in contact with both labour MP's and Assembly members , best you Google voxpox for an answer

durhamjen Sun 04-Jun-17 11:47:43

Haven't seen any election flyers for Tories here. The Labour ones have the woman who is standing. The Libdem one has the candidate, too. Haven't seen any others other than the newspaper wraparound which only mentions May.
I wouldn't know if the Tory is male or female.

Is every Labour supporter in Wales going to vote for Carwyn Jones?
Are those elected going to decide to stay away from Westminster in protest at Corbyn being the leader?
Or are they going to sit in a corner and sulk and not vote to support Corbyn on anything?
Is that the sort of childish behaviour you think will be good for democracy, Annie?

I can't recall not having respect for Wales. Some of my family live there and vote there. Perhaps you need a bit more respect for the UK voters.

OurKid1 Sun 04-Jun-17 10:27:38

I canvass for the LibDems and the feeling from voters is increasingly that the Tories are getting far too confident of winning for their own good. Arrogance is not a good trait in a politician and that is beginning to be realised. I think (hope) Theresa May may be in for a shock. I think she will still win, but with a greatly reduced majority and, hopefully, increased LibDem representation in Parliament. I am sick of this two-way political system we have and the tit-for-tat arguing which we see on television.

Anniebach Sun 04-Jun-17 10:23:03

Wales is a country, London a city and please , even though you are English do fund respect for other countries in the UK. In Wales it is Welsh Labour who are fighting this election ,

The election fliers - Tory's have May , Welsh Labour have Carwyn

durhamjen Sun 04-Jun-17 10:10:22

I've noticed that polls in Wales state that 46% are going to vote Labour, compared with 35% Tory.
I do hope so.

London it's 50% Labour - 33% Con.

whitewave Sun 04-Jun-17 09:55:37

daph I think that shows the success of the opposition to run the agenda.

She assumed incorrectly that she could manage the whole thing.

She isn't much good at it.

durhamjen Sun 04-Jun-17 09:49:19

For anyone concerned about housing affordability for their children and grandchildren, or even them having somewhere to live, here is a comparison of housing policy in the manifestos.

www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2017/may/31/housing-manifestos-conservatives-labour-lib-dems-homes