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Snap election - could TM have seriously miscalculated?

(142 Posts)
MawBroon Sun 28-May-17 07:33:39

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/who-will-win-general-election-2017-latest-polls-odds-tracker/

Everybody (including the government) has seemed seemed to assume the Tories were on track for a landslide victory but current opinion polls suggest Labour is closing the gap. Support for Jeremy Corbyn is increasing especially among women and the projections suggest he will do better than Miliband.
Now, it could be one of several things
Fear of the consequences of a massive Tory majority
Distrust of May in the Brexit negotiations (and they will go ahead I assume )
I think hopes of a U turn there are misguided and in any case the resulting uncertainty and confusion would be catastrophic for the economy. The damage has been done there.
Maybe women don't like a "bloody difficult woman"
Or is it the twinkly eyes and the beard?

petra Tue 30-May-17 17:45:07

I don't think TM should resign if she looses as ( I think ) people will be voting against her policies, not her. But ( I think) Corbyn should resign as it's him that people are voting against. And no, I'm not voting Tory.

Luckylegs9 Tue 30-May-17 16:49:34

The honest answer to the original question, is, unfortunately, yes.

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 16:47:51

" The Tory manifesto is almost completely uncosted. It is like a parody of what the Conservatives say Labour manifestos are like. Then, at its heart, was a catastrophic misjudgement on the dementia tax. This will have partly been the result of tight time constraints - albeit ones she has only herself to blame for. But it is also indicative of how May works. The party has no role. Not even Cabinet has a role. Otherwise relatively interesting political figures like Amber Rudd, David Davis and Philip Hammond have been turned into puppets of the leader's will. Only May and her two advisers have any role. You can sense the absence of all the people she fired, in a mad and arrogant rush, when she first became prime minister. All decisions are made in Downing Street. No-one else is consulted.

This type of control freakery has driven other prime ministers round the bend, the most recent being Gordon Brown. It is ineffective in terms of management, but it also creates bad policy on its own terms. It seems Nick Timothy, one of May's two chiefs of staff, inserted the dementia tax policy at the last minute without briefing Cabinet. And what happened then? A series of utterly predictable reactions from the press, from the parliamentary party and from core Tory voters. It was exactly the kind of repercussion you would expect if you had stress-tested the policy behind closed doors.That's why ideas get batted around before publication - to spot the weak points. May has sealed herself in her own echo chamber, with all the functional consequences which follow from that."

From www.politics.co.uk

That's why Mayhem should resign if she loses.

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 16:06:08

Why does Mayhem keep saying that she is going to build a stronger fairer government for all?
Everyone else knows she hasn't and she isn't.

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 16:04:38

Sorry, good enough.

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 16:04:16

And read the labour government thread again. Angelab's response not godd enough for you?

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 16:02:28

You haven't answered my question, roses.
What has Corbyn done to make you dislike him so much?

rosesarered Tue 30-May-17 15:40:27

Because the question plainly won't be answered on that thread.There is nothing against the rules on GN in asking the same question on multiple threads angelab

angelab Tue 30-May-17 15:27:56

roses see my post on 'A labour government thread'. Why are you asking this question in 2 places?

rosesarered Tue 30-May-17 15:25:10

Yes, if May loses she should resign.There, not so difficult to answer is it, so should Corbyn resign?

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 15:20:51

By the way, whitewave was talking about charities now, not after the referendum. Do you think they should be stopped from mentioning politics between now and the election, even though part of their raison d'etre is political?

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 15:18:54

I think I've answered it. It isn't what Corbyn has promised; it's a collective manifesto. The tory one is all about Mayhem.

What if May loses? Should she resign?

rosesarered Tue 30-May-17 15:15:24

My question is a serious one durhamjen ( why not answer it?)
I would like to know what Labour voters think should happen if after all the things that Corbyn has promised in the manifesto do not lead to a victory in the GE.
Do they want him to continue for another five years, or would they hope he would resign immediately?

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 15:09:26

You don't like Corbyn, do you, roses?
What has he done to make you feel like that?

rosesarered Tue 30-May-17 14:54:37

ww T May says there will be a green paper on the fuel allowance and the social care package and that appropriate charities will be consulted, so it would appear that charities will have a voice in this.
I agree Merlot that angering the older voter is a mistake, and the better thing to have done was to guarantee these things until 2020 ( as was promised by Cameron.)They well may be the right things to do, but if you want a larger majority in Parliament then this isn't the way to go about it.
I have put ( on another thread) the musings that if Labour lose this GE, when they have put forward a manifesto promising all things to all men, and a real crowd pleaser it is too, then what will happen to Labour?Will Corbyn resign?
If the Conservatives win after a lacklustre campaign and a hard manifesto, then Corbyn is the reason himself ( that is turning voters off) and losing votes.
What woukd be the point of Corbyn sticking around for five years?

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 12:06:17

It's not just that, whitewave. They could even fine charities for doing so for the year before an election.
It was the law that, when fixed term parliaments came in, charities were not allowed to say anything remotely political in the run up to an election.
Shelter, etc., could also be fined for what they've printed over the last year.
Obviously it would be ridiculous, and show up this government if they tried it on.

daphnedill Tue 30-May-17 11:52:47

If she did do it to woo the younger generation, it seriously has backfired.

All the polls are showing that 18-35 year olds support Labour. Unfortunately for them, they're a much smaller group than over 65s, the majority of whom support the Conservatives.

Jalima1108 Tue 30-May-17 11:04:11

we need a Time Machine.

angelab Tue 30-May-17 11:03:18

Sorry not to have read this thread all the way through, so this point may already have been made: I feel TM has made the same mistake as DC with the referendum, so sure she was going to get a huge majority that she just sat back and took it all for granted. Hopefully this will come back to bite her.

Jalima1108 Tue 30-May-17 10:47:21

merlotgran I agree, and TM probably did this in an attempt to woo the younger generation but in such an obscure way that it has backfired.

whitewave Tue 30-May-17 10:46:21

I didn't realise that the Tories have tied the hands of Charities like Help the Aged.

They are by law prevented from giving out information during the election. So they are very worried about things like the winter fuel allowance and potential deaths along of course with the Social Care issue but can't say anything about it.

merlotgran Tue 30-May-17 10:10:04

Risking the wrath of pensioners is a serious miscalculation IMO. They're the ones who bother to vote and for whom transport is laid on if they have problems getting to the polling station. Many of them choose to vote the way they have always voted but worries about losing the WFA, triple lock pensions etc., even if it doesn't persuade them to vote labour might just be their reason to stay at home and not vote at all.

TM might not get the majority she's banking on.

Luckygirl Tue 30-May-17 09:50:18

In view of the fact that TM's openly admitted purpose in holding this election was to boost her majority so that she could go into the Brexit negotiations with a strong hand, then yes I think she has miscalculated. If the polls are to be believed then she will go in with a weaker hand.

That's what you get for arrogantly pre-empting the result of a GE - Brits don't like being taken for granted and told what to do.

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 09:22:43

Mayhem has seriously miscalculated with putting this man in charge of anything.

click.mail.theguardian.com/?qs=e9a38f9892fe53ebb632e8950d7c9cc60504c9fd6c31cb479763eda3bba65ccf463aad7f71b10148f68246a8d4c112bb

Who do you want to negotiate our exit from the EU, Johnson or Starmer?

Nezumi65 Mon 29-May-17 22:34:08

Oh and while I might not want Corbyn negotiating Brexit I would be happy for Keir Starmer to do so. Keir or Boris??? Hmmm - not much competition.