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Snap election - could TM have seriously miscalculated?

(142 Posts)
MawBroon Sun 28-May-17 07:33:39

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/who-will-win-general-election-2017-latest-polls-odds-tracker/

Everybody (including the government) has seemed seemed to assume the Tories were on track for a landslide victory but current opinion polls suggest Labour is closing the gap. Support for Jeremy Corbyn is increasing especially among women and the projections suggest he will do better than Miliband.
Now, it could be one of several things
Fear of the consequences of a massive Tory majority
Distrust of May in the Brexit negotiations (and they will go ahead I assume )
I think hopes of a U turn there are misguided and in any case the resulting uncertainty and confusion would be catastrophic for the economy. The damage has been done there.
Maybe women don't like a "bloody difficult woman"
Or is it the twinkly eyes and the beard?

Nezumi65 Mon 29-May-17 22:24:33

I'm no Tory, but the thing that has surprised me most about this campaign is how out of touch with her own supporters TM is. I don't expect her to understand, or care about, the lives of groups such as the disabled (see past few years of Tory policy) - but I expected her to understand what her own supporters want. Which isn't to hand over their assets to the government when they die. Personally I can think many policies the Tories have introduced that have been worse - but I would never vote Tory - so I don't expect to agree with their policies. But talk about not understanding the concerns of your supporter base. And fox hunting?? Hunters were always going to vote Tory anyway - all she's done is alienated some more moderate or urban Tories.

She only listens to a very small group of advisors. She seems an absolute liability. If Corbyn was supported by the press he would be storming.

Personally I'd like a hung parliament, all the swivel eyed loons (whether raving left or right) to wind their necks in and electoral reform to take place so I can actually start to vote for who I want to (am in a key marginal so have to vote Labour - making that easier on myself by vote swapping). I'm a fan of cross Party decision making and moderation - I think TM (& maybe to a lesser extent Corbyn) highlight the problems of the current system - where the country's policy & direction can be driven by the extremists within a Party.

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 19:19:40

It was on. I didn't watch. I was printing out a list of questions for Paxman to ask her tonight, and see how many he does ask her.
Definitely not going to watch Neil and Nuttall.

varian Mon 29-May-17 19:17:34

I have just forced myself to watch a party political broadcast by the Theresa May party. I feel physically sick.

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 15:18:14

Simon Wren-Lewis thinks Mayhem seriously miscalculated, and that she's nowhere near as strong and stable as her supporters think she is. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to read his blog.

voxpoliticalonline.com/2017/05/29/the-more-we-see-of-theresa-may-the-less-she-seems-like-a-leader/

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 15:13:20

anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/why-do-mainstream-press-let-tories-get.html

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 15:08:09

Oh, and it's the seat where the tory MP swore at a Scottish schoolgirl. Not a good advert for strong and stable.

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 15:05:50

The seat of Wells was held by the tories for 86 years before Tessa Munt took it in 2010. In 2015 it was taken back by the tories. It could easily be the libdems again this time. I sincerely hope so.

whitewave Mon 29-May-17 15:05:13

She has never been liked and almost got the leadership by default as looking back after the referendum, and the debacle over the leadership bids, they hadn't really got their act together and so for lack of a reasonable candidate etc.

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 15:01:12

I can't see her lasting until 2012 whether the tories win or not, whitewave. She's too damaged now.

whitewave Mon 29-May-17 14:58:23

I am still wondering why Neil asked May if she intended to see the whole term out. It isn't a question one normally asks. It is all leaving loads of unanswered questions.

Jalima1108 Mon 29-May-17 14:55:28

djen with respect, the interview is with a couple of disgruntled farmers and someone who has moved from the city to a smallholding and b&b so not really representative of the agricultural area of the West and South-West - although I would not be surprised at a return to the Liberal Democrats in those areas..

Lib Dems have always been strong in the West and Tessa Munt was a popular and hardworking MP.

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 14:42:38

Another election in two years time?

whitewave Mon 29-May-17 14:33:35

I think that most people would agree that May has bungled so much of this election.

What worries me is that we are expecting her to reside over the Brexit process. Doesn't bode well, given her clear level of incompetence to date.

However, given the fact that the Tories have landed us in this God awful mess I am inclined to think that they are welcome to it. Nor sure why any other party should be expected to pick up the fallout. It will become crystal clear, despite their scrabbling to hide it, their incompetence and ignorance as the whole sorry business unfolds.

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 11:57:55

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/28/uncertainty-politics-u-turns-polls

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 11:41:51

energydesk.greenpeace.org/2017/05/28/brexit-uk-eu-climate-change-energy-efficiency/

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 11:40:41

Hopefully even more votes lost for Mayhem.

www.independent.co.uk/environment/theresa-may-donald-trump-mole-eu-europe-climate-change-greenpeace-leaked-documents-a7761236.html

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 11:23:48

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/28/somerset-fed-up-farmers-are-ditching-the-tories

Even Somerset farmers have had enough of the Tory government.

GracesGranMK2 Mon 29-May-17 11:16:24

And so say many of us BlueBelle.

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 09:27:13

Not a cockroach, though. Too Kafkaesque. You never know which one of them it might be,
I've often thought Hunt would make a good travelling salesman.

BlueBelle Mon 29-May-17 09:23:13

I d vote for a terantula if it got rid of the May and the Tory government

GracesGranMK2 Mon 29-May-17 08:36:35

I'm sorry Luckygirl - does it say there is not choice? I think there is another site which may be more helpful. Perhaps someone will remember it. I will wrack my brains.

Luckygirl Mon 29-May-17 08:10:20

GracesGranMK2 - I have been following that site for a while and it tells me that it is not possible to know whether I should vote Labour or LibDem in order to oust the Tory - I knew that already!!! - that is exactly my problem! grin

Welshwife Mon 29-May-17 07:58:30

What about the 580BILLION the Tory Govt have borrowed and still given everyone a life of austerity???

Rigby46 Mon 29-May-17 07:41:18

Yes, she did miscalculate. I'm sure she'll win but maybe not with the landslide she expected. But whatever, I think that calling the election has damaged her - it was based on a false premise and she has not exactly covered herself in glory during her self-centred campaign. She is going to have to pull some very large rabbits out of the Brexit hat in the next couple of years to survive.

Anya Mon 29-May-17 07:19:27

That's a wonderful idea Luckylegs what a great way to get free care and you can become one of the undeserving poor too!