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Snap election - could TM have seriously miscalculated?

(142 Posts)
MawBroon Sun 28-May-17 07:33:39

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/who-will-win-general-election-2017-latest-polls-odds-tracker/

Everybody (including the government) has seemed seemed to assume the Tories were on track for a landslide victory but current opinion polls suggest Labour is closing the gap. Support for Jeremy Corbyn is increasing especially among women and the projections suggest he will do better than Miliband.
Now, it could be one of several things
Fear of the consequences of a massive Tory majority
Distrust of May in the Brexit negotiations (and they will go ahead I assume )
I think hopes of a U turn there are misguided and in any case the resulting uncertainty and confusion would be catastrophic for the economy. The damage has been done there.
Maybe women don't like a "bloody difficult woman"
Or is it the twinkly eyes and the beard?

Jalima1108 Tue 30-May-17 20:09:21

I think Corbyn will go if Labour loses but I think it could be a struggle to get rid of him - he may not go willingly. The worrying thing is who would succeed him? If McDonnell then I think Labour could be seen to be unelectable for a long period.

daphnedill Tue 30-May-17 20:20:27

Polls are consistently showing that the turning point in voter intention is about 35. In five years' time, the 35 year olds will be 40, so their support will be critical. Will they still support Labour? I sense that the consensus is moving towards the left, so they might. People are certainly thinking that there is an alternative to neo-liberalism and "austerity". Much depends on the outcome of Brexit negotiations and how they affect people's lives.

GracesGranMK2 Tue 30-May-17 20:42:16

You really are one of life's lovely people aren't you Roses.

MargaretX Tue 30-May-17 21:59:53

What on earth is all this about. No one knows who will resign even that person who resigns doesn't yet know himself or her self yet.

They are doing well but there are more things about the Labour party which will prevent people voting for them Diane Abbot is one and some of his promises are really more like dreams of a perfect society, which won't happen in our life time.

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 22:07:14

What about May being a laughing stock in Europe?

ninny Tue 30-May-17 22:17:15

MargaretX that's the first time I have ever agreed with one of your posts.

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 22:55:49

Don't worry, Margaret, I've agreed with lots of your posts.

Luckylegs9 Wed 31-May-17 07:15:39

Nothing will get rid of Corbyn as he has proved, even Labour didn't want him, but he hung on, like Diane Abott, who else would employ them, seriously,, so what choice does he have,he could sign on I suppose, he the worst possible person for Labour. The need fresh blood, people that know what they are talking about and can relate to people. The country is crying out forceful opposition, but some of his loyal followers don't think of the bigger picture, just supporting this ridiculous unpatriotic man ad his little friends.

daphnedill Wed 31-May-17 07:18:08

Why would Corbyn need to sign on? He's of pensionable age.

daphnedill Wed 31-May-17 07:24:04

GracesGran It must be "Lovely Wednesday". They seem to be coming out ion force.hmm

I amnot a Labour Party member and I won't be voting Labour in the GE (partly because my constituency doesn't have a serious Labour candidate), but I think Corbyn has been impressive over the last few weeks and May's performance has been abysmal. She's the one who doesn't appear to know what she's talking about and can't relate to real people.

Don't forget that the majority of 18-35 year olds support Labour. The country is heading for serious divisions, despite what May likes to tell us we should all be thinking.

daphnedill Wed 31-May-17 07:24:19

*in force"

durhamjen Wed 31-May-17 08:18:06

"Labour need fresh blood."
I always thought it was the tories who were vampires, feeding off the blood of the poor and the weak.
DWP kills people nowadays.

Ginny42 Wed 31-May-17 08:29:25

I don't really get why an increased majority would have enabled her to negotiate a better Brexit deal. If it was to deal with her own MP's, could it not have been done behind closed doors?

However, thank goodness she did call a snap election as it has given the Labour Party the chance they were waiting for and so far, Diane Abbott excepted, they have barely fluffed a line. OK Jeremy should have had the costings for child care at his finger tips, but at least they are costed in their manifesto, which the Tories in their arrogance have not done. Jeremy is responding logically and articulately and not merely parotting sound bites which are now wearing very thin and becoming extremely boring.

I could feel sorry for TM, but I'm not. She's out of her depth and she's flagging. She was laughed at during the Paxman 'debate'. She was floundering and she knew it. We all knew it.

whitewave Wed 31-May-17 08:30:45

May is incompetent and weak

durhamjen Wed 31-May-17 09:26:24

I bet you don't read this in many of the Tory papers, either.

evolvepolitics.com/data-terrorism-always-goes-tories-national-security-threat/

Tories are a threat to security, not Labour.
May voted for the bombing of Libya.

daphnedill Wed 31-May-17 11:01:10

The strange thing is that TM has hardly mentioned Brexit at all during the campaign, despite claiming that it was to strengthen her hand with the EU that she called the election.

durhamjen Sun 04-Jun-17 09:49:19

For anyone concerned about housing affordability for their children and grandchildren, or even them having somewhere to live, here is a comparison of housing policy in the manifestos.

www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2017/may/31/housing-manifestos-conservatives-labour-lib-dems-homes

whitewave Sun 04-Jun-17 09:55:37

daph I think that shows the success of the opposition to run the agenda.

She assumed incorrectly that she could manage the whole thing.

She isn't much good at it.

durhamjen Sun 04-Jun-17 10:10:22

I've noticed that polls in Wales state that 46% are going to vote Labour, compared with 35% Tory.
I do hope so.

London it's 50% Labour - 33% Con.

Anniebach Sun 04-Jun-17 10:23:03

Wales is a country, London a city and please , even though you are English do fund respect for other countries in the UK. In Wales it is Welsh Labour who are fighting this election ,

The election fliers - Tory's have May , Welsh Labour have Carwyn

OurKid1 Sun 04-Jun-17 10:27:38

I canvass for the LibDems and the feeling from voters is increasingly that the Tories are getting far too confident of winning for their own good. Arrogance is not a good trait in a politician and that is beginning to be realised. I think (hope) Theresa May may be in for a shock. I think she will still win, but with a greatly reduced majority and, hopefully, increased LibDem representation in Parliament. I am sick of this two-way political system we have and the tit-for-tat arguing which we see on television.

durhamjen Sun 04-Jun-17 11:47:43

Haven't seen any election flyers for Tories here. The Labour ones have the woman who is standing. The Libdem one has the candidate, too. Haven't seen any others other than the newspaper wraparound which only mentions May.
I wouldn't know if the Tory is male or female.

Is every Labour supporter in Wales going to vote for Carwyn Jones?
Are those elected going to decide to stay away from Westminster in protest at Corbyn being the leader?
Or are they going to sit in a corner and sulk and not vote to support Corbyn on anything?
Is that the sort of childish behaviour you think will be good for democracy, Annie?

I can't recall not having respect for Wales. Some of my family live there and vote there. Perhaps you need a bit more respect for the UK voters.

Anniebach Sun 04-Jun-17 11:54:54

Unlike you .jen who know all, I have no idea what every Welsh voter will vote firm I do know Carwyn launched the election campaign, I do read his emails and am in contact with both labour MP's and Assembly members , best you Google voxpox for an answer

whitewave Sun 04-Jun-17 11:56:38

My Tory candidate believes in the power of prayer to cure the LGBT community.

grin

rosesarered Sun 04-Jun-17 11:58:52

That will be Brighton then?