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Snap election - could TM have seriously miscalculated?

(142 Posts)
MawBroon Sun 28-May-17 07:33:39

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/who-will-win-general-election-2017-latest-polls-odds-tracker/

Everybody (including the government) has seemed seemed to assume the Tories were on track for a landslide victory but current opinion polls suggest Labour is closing the gap. Support for Jeremy Corbyn is increasing especially among women and the projections suggest he will do better than Miliband.
Now, it could be one of several things
Fear of the consequences of a massive Tory majority
Distrust of May in the Brexit negotiations (and they will go ahead I assume )
I think hopes of a U turn there are misguided and in any case the resulting uncertainty and confusion would be catastrophic for the economy. The damage has been done there.
Maybe women don't like a "bloody difficult woman"
Or is it the twinkly eyes and the beard?

Luckylegs9 Mon 29-May-17 06:37:40

I think it was wrong to call an election, as it looks as if the Corbyn and Abbot bumbles will win. If only to up benefits. People want quick fixes. Everything has to be paid for, but never mind they will borrow us out of the mire,leave someone else to pick up the bill later.
It doesn't matter much to me now, except the banality of it all, the repeating of mistakes. I care about my grandchildren, the only place Is New Zealand, every European Country is now in trouble, no work and jobs for youngsters because of free movement. Too many people chasing so little. So I will cast my vote, then possibly sell the house and do back to back cruises until it's all gone and I can come back and go into a care home, where I shall possibly exit quickly because of the standard of care.

paddyann Mon 29-May-17 01:10:04

well the tories are only on 22% of the vote here so if Laboour voters are indeed flocking back to them instead of voting tory as advised by Ms Dugdale the Labour leader (lol) they have no hope here ..or are the postal votes being tampered with as we speak...Ruth knew the results BEFORE they were even counted at the Scottish referendum !!

durhamjen Sun 28-May-17 22:17:51

Why would you expect us to know?
Like GracesGran says, you don't even need to vote; she only called the election because she was so sure of "myself, me and I"..

Jane10 Sun 28-May-17 22:16:33

I would never not vote!

GracesGranMK2 Sun 28-May-17 22:05:02

She's going to win anyway Jane so you don't even need to bother voting.

Jane10 Sun 28-May-17 21:47:08

Is there a similar post code checker to see how to help a Tory? Just asking. wink

durhamjen Sun 28-May-17 19:22:07

GracesGran, I used that postcode checker last week when my grandson was here. We looked at every constituency that we had ever lived. Only one should we vote for LibDem to stop a Tory, and that was Winchester. I wasn't at all surprised at that.

GracesGranMK2 Sun 28-May-17 18:57:16

True, Riverwalk.

Jane10 Sun 28-May-17 18:13:08

Viewing figures are pretty low for them.

rosesarered Sun 28-May-17 17:55:54

Am not sure of the value of tv debates anyway, so I don't blame either May or Corbyn for not taking part.So easy for somebody glib to do well, but also easy for things to go wrong, a bolshie audience member, a memory lapse, a slight trip on the way out! We did manage without them a few years ago after all.

whitewave Sun 28-May-17 13:35:53

What an utter shambles it all is.

Riverwalk Sun 28-May-17 13:33:43

The one due on 31 May GG. Not quite right to say that neither were ever going to appear - Corbyn said he will take part if TM does.

In the game of politics you debate against those of equal position, but Corbyn could earn extra points by appearing, if only to show that TM bottled it!

GracesGranMK2 Sun 28-May-17 13:08:07

Oh no, just seen a comment on it. Neither May or Corbyn were ever going to appear on that programme I don't think and I gather the Labour representative has not been announced yet.

GracesGranMK2 Sun 28-May-17 13:03:42

Do you mean the one following the other "Any Questions" Riverwalk?

Riverwalk Sun 28-May-17 12:07:04

TM has dropped out of the Leaders' TV debate - sending Amber Rudd instead. hmm

GracesGranMK2 Sun 28-May-17 11:54:02

Coffee - good idea. Far too many politics programmes on a Sunday!

whitewave Sun 28-May-17 11:07:13

Sorry I'll re read what I've said. I'm having a coffee break at the moment from the garden.

GracesGranMK2 Sun 28-May-17 11:04:00

I'm not sure either Jalima. When we write quickly to get our point across we can all make it a bit less clear than we intended (well, I can do that and I write a half-speed unless I dictategrin then it's the machines fault) so perhaps WW could let us know.

whitewave Sun 28-May-17 11:02:36

I think one of the issues -amongst many - that Mays fellow Tories are undoubtedly grumbling about behind closed doors is the fact that the Tory party has morphed into the May party.

There has only been one instance since she called the election when she has appeared with one of her ministers and that was Hammond, in which she conspicuously refused to rely to the question as to whether she had confidence in him.

Every time she opens her mouth she begins it with I, myself or me. Where is her party in all this? She appeared to want to keep what was at one time likely to be a big victory all to herself.

There is no doubt that Mays brand is becoming more toxic as the weeks go by. The conduct of the campaign has been very poor and the party faithful are becoming edgy.

GracesGranMK2 Sun 28-May-17 10:59:26

I think your graph shows an overall picture Daphne but I do think we should be careful to make any taxation and/or benefits work to the individual not the 'typical' which I assume is average or mean(?). That figure in each group could be reached by many different compositions of income within the group.

daphnedill Sun 28-May-17 10:57:51

I would say "some" not "many" from the pensioners I know. wink

Jalima1108 Sun 28-May-17 10:55:00

Well, I thought she meant that the majority of pensioners have the attitude of 'I'm all right Jack' but I could be wrong. If so, sorry ww

I think many pensioners are very comfortably off but not all are and they do seem to be the generation which works hard for charity and appreciates the difficulties that many people encounter in their lives.

daphnedill Sun 28-May-17 10:52:40

Of course not every young family is on the breadline, nor are all pensioners wealthy. However, this chart shows that the median pensioner income after housing costs is above the working-age equivalent.

GracesGranMK2 Sun 28-May-17 10:51:04

Could you have misread what Whitewave was saying Jalima? (or could I?) I thought she was describing that as the Conservative view.

Alima Sun 28-May-17 10:42:58

In answer to your question MawBroon, I do so hope not. The mere thought of the alternative is enough to bring on a panic attack.