Dave Alan tweeting about the transition deal
1. Transition, a quick thread.
There is no article 50 and 1/2 in the TEU dealing with transition.
There is no article hidden in the Treaties like Platform 9and 3/4.
2 so what would the legal basis be in the EU Treaties for a transition period - of the U.K. keeping the aquis, without, well, being an EU member?
3.the transition arrangement may be based on Article 50, even though there is no specific mention of “transition”
It must be in the agreement mentioned in Article 50 (2) and (3).
4.How long can such a withdrawal arrangement last? They cannot be indefinite or else they would be beyond the legal limit of Article 50.
So must be time limited.
5.The EU seems to think that Article 50 cannot bear the weight of transition beyond 18 months to 2 years.
If so that is a very hard legal limit.
6.But if the U.K. is thinking of a 5-6 year transition period, that will be outside the scope of Article 50.
7 so a long transition period may not be possible under Article 50
8 so it seems the only possibility would be to extend the Article 50 period, which as Dunt says would be politically difficult.
9 Mogg argues (rightly imo) that extending Article 50 will reduce the U.K. to a vassal state of the EU
10we have a crunch coming up that will be impossible to fudge.