Unintended consequences of brexit

Yes, I agree Welshwife, sometimes but not all of the time.

Dr Philip Lee has resigned as Justice Minister ahead of the crunch vote in the House of Commons on the Lords Amendments to the Brexit Bill. Dr Lee said his main objection to Government policy was over the “wish to limit Parliament’s role in contributing to the final outcome” and signalled he would rebel on the issue in the Commons later. He also called for the Government’s final proposals to be put to the public in a second referendum.

“When the Government is able to set out an achievable, clearly defined path, one that has been properly considered, whose implications have been foreseen, and that is rooted in reality and evidence, not dreams and dogma, it should go to the people, once again, to seek their confirmation,” he wrote. “Our Parliament should be able to direct our Government to change course in our interests. “In all conscience, I cannot support the Government’s decision to oppose this amendment because doing so breaches such fundamental principles of human rights and Parliamentary sovereignty.

“A vote between bad and worse is not a meaningful vote. And I cannot bring myself to vote for it in the bastion of liberty, freedom and human rights that is our Parliament.”

www.itv.com/news/2018-06-12/prime-minister-hit-by-dramatic-resignation-as-mps-debate-brexit/

Brexit means the UK will risk losing or reducing its access to the European Arrest Warrant and the ability to share both criminal records & biometric data with our neighbouring allies. It’s vital that Sajid Javid ensures the security of sensitive data during negotiations.

twitter.com/thomasbrake/status/1006873317578498049

Today in our local paper.
David O'Brian, chief commercial officer of Ryanair said:
"We are pleased to add Southend airport to our uk base network"
They have signed a 5yr agreement, extendable to 10.
13 routes to 8 European countries.
Ryanair obviously believes the planes will stil be flying after March 29 2019 yippee, I can now fly to Corfu from my local airport.

Because their head office is in an EU country still.

welshwife
You use the word still
Why would Ryanair ever consider moving from Dublin?
Obviously O' Leary didn't swallow project fear.

Don’t get too excited- Ryanair still hates Brexit - Bloomberg “When a company invests overseas, the move is usually accompanied by declarations of enthusiasm about the host nation’s economy.
Not so at Ryanair Holdings Plc. The Irish carrier revealed Wednesday that it will open a 14th U.K. airport base next April, days after the country is due to quit the European Union, while stressing that the plan in no way amounts to a reassessment of its dire warnings about the likely impact of Brexit.
“Don’t confuse this great news as some form of vote of confidence in the future of U.K. aviation,” Chief Commercial Officer David O’Brien said at a briefing in London. It’s a “vote of confidence in Southend airport.”

Has it been sorted about the Open Skies etc yet? If so I must have missed it. It will be interesting to see how it works out because O’Leary was very worried about flights being able to fly in and out of U.K. Perhaps he has found a loophole.
British Airways may well need to do something about their apparent ownership and head office to continue operating after Brexit. They will not ‘still’ be in the EU unless they move or the rules change.

Of course Ireland will still be in the EU, so Irish companies will be OK, which is why Jacob Rees-Mogg's investment company has just opened an office in Dublin,.

Jacob Rees Mogg heads up an investment fund which invests $9Bn in countries other than the UK. He has stated he does so because he has a 'duty to his fund's investors to maximise returns'. After Brexit he, and thousands of UK 'patriots' like him will continue to have a duty to invest so as to maximise return on behalf of their subscribers. They will still not invest in the neglected regions of Britain. Brexit will improve nothing for its voters.

Thousands set to lose jobs in Rolls Royce, mostly UK employees at Derby and Bristol. RR have bases in France and Germany which will pick up the work.

I did not see that about France and Germany - I understood it was mainly office staff and it was for streamlining purposes. That does put a slightly different complexion on things if correct.

Dr Sarah Woolaston, Tory MP, chairman of the Health Select Committee of the House of Commons has reacted to Theresa May's announcement of more money for the NHS (3.5% over five years) as a "brexit dividend", by tweeting:-

"The Brexit dividend tosh was expected but treats the public as fools. Sad to see Govt slide to populist arguments rather than evidence on such an important issue. This will make it harder to have a rational debate about the ‘who & how’ of funding & sharing this fairly."

twitter.com/sarahwollaston?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Although I have never voted Conservative, I used to think Theresa May was a decent politician, indeed I was rooting for her in 2016 (but mainly on the basis that she was not Andrea Leadsom). I now realise that I was wrong. The Guardian was right, She is inherently dishonest.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/17/theresa-may-brexit-pledges-deluded-dishonest-article-50

I do hope that no-one believes that the money for the NHS is a 'Brexit dividend.

Any money coming to the NHS in the next five years will have to come from increased borrowing or taxation.

This is because the net £9bn-a-year we pay into the EU every year has already been earmarked up to the year 2022 at the very least.

It's going to be used to pay Britain's £39bn Brexit divorce bill and maintain farm subsidies for British farmers amongst other things.

There isn't spare money lying around to be put into the NHS.

And, aside from all of that, there is unlikely to even be a "Brexit dividend".

As Paul Johnson of the Institute of Fiscal Studies pointed out, the government has already accepted analysis from the fiscal watchdog that Brexit will weaken public finances by £15bn a year.

news.sky.com/story/chancellor-philip-hammond-faces-perfect-storm-over-brexit-dividend-for-nhs-11407764

This barefaced lying by Theresa May is outrageous

Well people who believed the red bus lie will no doubt be reassured by May that this is the magical Brexit money. The reality is it’s money that has been taken away from the NHS and less of it is being given back. She did hint that the money will have to come from taxation but didn’t elaborate obv. We will still be paying to EU till 2023, paying for Brexit costs almost as much, plus paying all the farmers , poorer regions etc their Eu money will leave us even more in deficit. You don’t have to be an economist to work that one out. I’ve nothing against paying higher taxes for the NHS, but May should be honest about it.

May has spoken of the Brexit dividend as if money only went one way, from the UK to the EU.
She has also previously said she will cover all the subsidies and grants we get from the EU to our poorer regions.
Somehow I don't think she could pass maths GCSE, or even the 11+

Households could be left up to £1,000 a year worse off because of Brexit trade barriers, a report will suggest. Global consultancy firm Oliver Wyman will say that under the most negative scenario of high import tariffs and high regulatory barriers the cost to the economy could total £27bn.

Business profits for supermarkets and restaurants could be wiped out because of supply chain disruption. A rise in costs would likely be passed on to consumers, the report will argue.

The analysis, to be published next week and seen by the BBC, will make clear that even under the most favourable scenario of no tariffs and few regulatory barriers, there are likely to be increased "red tape" costs.

It will suggest that increased paperwork and delays for customs checks are likely to increase household costs by 1% a year, or £250 per household. The total cost to the economy would be £6.8bn.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44511829

May has said today the extra money will come from taxation but hasn't elaborated (i.e. made up her mind) what form of tax this will be. Maybe it should be an extra tax on people who voted Brexit. They'd all be happy to pay I'm sure.
btw - is it just me or did May look unwell on Andrew Marr yesterday?

The Brexit Dividend for the NHS might actually be the forced privatisation of the NHS.
IF we crashed out of EU without a deal we would have to trade under WTO rules. That means NO government subsidies allowed. The NHS would have to be sold off.
Crashing out with no deal is very unlikely, but it is still a possible outcome.

I'd vote for that suzied. The Leavers should pay the cost.

If the potential disaster that is brexit actually happens, nothing could ever compensate our children and grandchildren for their loss - they would become citizens of a much diminished second rate country, scraping around to be noticed by the EU, US, China, India and the rest of the world.

Do you think Mostlyharmless that these dire consequences might ever be explained to the readers of The Sun, Daily Mail and Express?

I agree Varian the whole Brexit thing is so complicated there should never have been a Referendum.
Did you see the clip from “Love Island” where some girls were struggling to understand Brexit? Those girls were all in their twenties, so should have received all the Brexit/Remain information two years ago and might even have voted!

Well who does really understand international trading rules?

Not me. Far too complex.

Not the Government either it seems as they have been trying to set up trade negotiations when you’re not allowed until you leave EU.

I'm not saying I understand all these rules mostlyharmless but I'll give it my best shot.

There are rules for trade within the EU - dealing with standardisation, complience etc. These have bbe formulated over 40+ years and we took part in deciding them with our EU partners. If we want to trade with the EU in future we must abide by these rules but will not have any say in making the rules.

Then there are rules about EU countries trading with other countries. There are treaties which have been negotiated over many years.

If we leave the EU and still want to trade with other countries we cannot benefit from the treaties in place. We would have to start from scratch and attempt to negotiate terms which are (if we are lucky) just as good. Both of these situations would involve huge costs for the UK, a vast increase in form filling and beurocracy and the need to employ trade experts, negotiators and lawyers which we do not have and if we find them, they will coist us a fortune.

The WTO rules seem even more complicated if we crash out with “No Deal”.