Unintended consequences of brexit

Honda have also warned that their ‘just-in-time’ production would be hit if UK leaves the EU customs union - that means that if they stayed in the UK they could find that their production schedules, like so many other things in a post-brexit Britain, would be out of control.

I am amazed that so many posters on both sides of the leave/remain debate are so sure they are correct about the intricacies & out comes of Brexit. No one knows for sure it’s all supposition, guesswork , a wing & a prayer. The reality will be revealed & judged by future historians , we don’t know how it will pan out so let’s stop pretending or worse believing that Britain will be reborn as a major influence & trading nation on the world stage . It’s going to be along hard slog, any benefits will be along time coming . Imo the vote should not have been taken without real knowledge & real choices , perhaps the vote should have been two teared, the first in principle & the second when more actual facts were available.

From today’s news - The car industry has warned Theresa May there is “no Brexit dividend” for the business, with 860,000 jobs being put at risk unless the government “rethinks” its red lines in negotiations.
BMW will shut UK sites if customs delays clog supply post-Brexit
In the starkest warning yet from a single business sector, the car lobby has told the government that it needs “as a minimum” to remain in the customs union and a deal that delivers “single market benefits”.
“There is no Brexit dividend for our industry,” Michael Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, said.

That's the view I'm coming round to Bridgeit.
"The reality will be revealed & judged by future historians . "
Except I'm fairly sure that those who have been entrusted with the negotiations are not very competent.
We on Gransnet could have done much better.

" We on Gransnet could have done much better."

Hells bells

I agree that the government have made a pig's ear of brexit, but I'm not sure that even the combined efforts of GNetters could ever have achieved a good result. There are too many conundrums, too many insoluble problems.

The whole brexit project was ill-conceived, based on asking people for a simple answer to an extremely complicated question, with no safeguards against a marginal result based on some people believing a pack of lies.

David Lammy on Twitter:
@DavidLammy
We can't all move our businesses to Ireland like Rees-Mogg. We can't all get French citizenship like Nigel Lawson. We can't all live off our EU pension like Farage. British people will suffer from this shambles & be forced to bear the brunt of hard Brexit

Labour has criticised the arch-Eurosceptic MP John Redwood for “talking down Britain” after he recently wrote a column of financial advice in which he recommended investors “look further afield” because of the state of the UK economy.

In the piece for the Financial Times, the Conservative MP – who has a £180,000 second job as chief global strategist for Charles Stanley – said the European Central Bank was promoting faster growth when the UK was seeing a squeeze on credit.

“Mario Draghi, ECB president, is now doing whatever it takes, not just to rescue the euro but to promote a much-needed economic recovery,” he wrote. He also compared the US and Japan’s approach favourably to the UK’s.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/13/labour-accuses-john-redwood-of-talking-britain-down

We on Gransnet could have done much better

Arguing until the cows come home POGS
(about more than the farmers' subsidies)

Had the referendum result been the other way round, almost certainly remain would have been perfectly happy with the narrow result and the way the referendum was conducted!! As a leaver, I would have accepted that result gracefully. It's a pity the losing side can't do the same!

So Nissan is getting wobbly about Brexit?

Car manufacturing giant Nissan is putting its investment plans in the UK on hold until there is more certainty over Brexit, according to reports.

The company's chairman and chief executive, Carlos Goshn, is said to have announced the Japanese firm is deferring all long-term business decisions while it remains "in the dark" about Britain's future relationship with the EU.

www.sunderlandecho.com/news/business/nissan-halts-investment-plans-while-it-remains-in-the-dark-over-brexit-plans-according-to-reports-1-9225210

It gives me no joy to say that Sunderland could be getting what it unthinkingly voted for.

As a leaver, I would have accepted that result gracefully. It's a pity the losing side can't do the same!

As a 'leaver' a Remain vote would have made no difference at all to your life, nellie. The reverse isn't true.

Farage would not have let it be were the result 52/48 to remain and he said he would have just carried on campaigning.

The Remain voters knew exactly what they voted for - our EU membership to continue. Leave voters did not know whether we would be in or out of the single market or customs union or what kind of deal might emerge or whether we could leave without a deal, let alone understand the implications of these scenarios. We still don't know.

I voted leave so that my grandchildren will not, like Greece, Italy, Hungary and others have to live under the authoritarian, bully boys in Brussels. I voted leave so that my 11 year old grandson will never have to do time in a European army, I voted leave so that this country would not be tied to the closed shop that is the EU. I voted leave to prevent this country being financially bled dry by the EU and those on its gravytrain including our own politicians, especially the last Labour government. There's a world beyond the EU and we (and others) should be allowed to go there without having to first get permission from our overlords. In other words, the Common Market with you was great, but we don't want to be run by you on a day to day basis. No it won't affect me, but it will affect them, and I have absolutely no doubt that one day the will thank me.

We did know that we would be out of the market and the customs union. This was made quite clear in that pamphlet sent round to each household prior to the referendum.

'single' market! Oh for an edit button, GN PLEASE!!

All The Times Brexiters Promised We Wouldn't Leave The Single Market

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/open-britain-video-single-market-nigel-farage-anna-soubry_uk_582ce0a0e4b09025ba310fce

Great post Nigglynellie.

Thanks Allygran1? It is truly how I feel!

What the EU had in store for us in the future greatly worried me.

To think that the Leavers had the nerve to label the Remain campaign 'Project Fear'!

Once again, there have been two votes one the referendum (advisory) to leave the EU. We then supported that majority referendum decision with a second majority vote at a General Election, when both main party's stood for election on a Brexit platform. The Government standing on a hard Brexit platform. Hard Brexit means no customs union no single market. There will be no doubt a reasonable transition period as one would expect, both for our benefit and that of the EU. However, we should be prepared for a cut off, if no reasonable transition agreements can be negotiated.

Remaining in either the customs union or the single market will mean that we do not leave the EU. The EU will not allow any deal that means we stay in the customs union or the single market without free movement, nor I hope are we asking to do that. So, that means no customs union or single market either by negotiation or through the back door as a member of EFTA, which would be the worst of all scenario's: none of the benefits of being out of the EU and no seat at the table.

Hard Brexit, is just Brexit, we leave the customs union and the single market, taking back control of our laws, borders and being able to deal freely at will, with the rest of the World, as well as individual Country's in the EEA if EU tariffs are not detrimental to trading. All business's will already be looking at their trade agreements, and the Government has been arranging trade missions all over the world for business's.

The Bank of England is preparing for a no customs union or single market deal in my view. Yesterday announcing that the Banks are ready and have been subjected to a "test" of strength on a complete world wide markets collapse, not attached to Brexit at all. The reasoning behind the test being, if the Banks could withstand that scenario, then anything that might happen to the markets on Brexit without customs union and single market deals, would be easily withstood by the Banks, therefore the £ would be supported and Business would be protected. The Bank of England is content that they (the Banking system and trading systems) are able to move securely and with confidence into leaving the EU, even in the scenario of a cut off. Which means no customs union, no single market, no freedom of movement, and no transition period.

I find it hard to understand how it is possible for anyone to not realise, that being in the EU means being in the customs union and the single market with freedom of movement.
Leaving the EU at the basic and most obvious level, therefore must mean that we will not be in the customs union or the single market and there will be no freedom of movement. For anyone to say that people who voted leave did not know this really is mind boggling. Apart from (as other posters have said) the leaflet's at both referendum and General Election, along with the many debates and news coverage, one would have to have been on a visit to Mars not to have understood what leaving the EU at that core level of customs union, single market and freedom of movement meant.

The EU Withdrawal Bill has now received the Royal ascent. Laws will start to be transferred back into sovereign power. Some EU laws will be kept, other's will not, or be amended. This has started to happen now, I imagine.

Excellent post Allygran1, and absolutely spot on.

Nigglynellie, your view of the future is one I share. This Brexit is not about now, or the past, it is just as you say so well, about the future. It is setting in motion my view a more secure and forward looking UK able to support the generations of the twenty first century.

The EU was a system of it's time, that time has past. The reasons for it's formation lost in time in another century.

The central political policy of the EU of "Ever closer union", it seems at all cost's, has done nothing other than create extreme reaction across the EEA with the resulting, polarisation of political party's to the extreme's, the very thing that the EU was formed to prevent. These extremes created by deprivation, unemployment and social unrest that is ignored by the EU, and left to the domain of the "domestic policy", so in fact, they create the problems, of single currency austerity, economic failure, dependence on hand out's from the EU although, in fact just recycling the member country's fee's dress-up as EU grants, and projects. The three main Country's being asked for most of the cash, being Germany, France and of course the UK. This worked when there were 7 Country's or 9 Country's, now there are 27 . In all of the EU, EEA country's there are burdens brought about through freedom of movement, through over population of large cities, creating high unemployment, social deprivation, housing shortage, poor education.

In Germany and to some extent France, through freedom of movement as EU members, there are Ghetto's of EU legal migrants, breeding grounds for disenfranchised EU citizens, who feel that they are not treated as others in Germany. They feel their education, social support, and housing is inadequate.

There are two ways to go in the twenty first century, one is free trade, sovereign power, giving the ability to act quickly to market attacks on the currency, and trading cycle ups and downs. Or being tied in, to the EU which is clearly, overburdened, overmanaged, and creating extremist political reactions against the EU: their masters the un elected EU, across the EEA.

There is something about an organisation that is intent on creating sameness, homogenising peoples, races, cultures, that must be questioned, or do we walk blindly into being absorbed.

We think it is important to preserve languages that are under threat of being lost on one hand, yet on the other we belong to an organisation who's stated policy is to make us all the same. There might even one day be one language, if the EU is allowed it's way, or did that one bite the dust! Esperanto was it called?

The future for every citizen of this Country and their descendants into the twenty first century will benefit from our disconnect from an ever more controlling unelected "Government": the EU.

Those we choose to Govern us in the future by democratic elections, will have the entire freedom we give them to make the Citizens of the UK, truly world citizens of the twenty first century.

The EU is looking back, we are looking forward.