Unintended consequences of brexit

Cunco I think the immigration departments failure as with many government departments is their reliance now on technology with inflexible algorithms and lack of personal logic.
Too much reliance is placed on the 'computer' saying yes or no.
We have larger populations that need employing and yet are implementing AI more and more with outcomes such as Inge Lickington.

varian Wed 23-May-18 20:01:33
"If they really wanted shot of immigrants born in other EU countries, they could have targeted Gisela Stuart, enthusiastic brexiteer, instead of people like Inga Lockington."

Gisela Stuart status is that of a naturalized British Citizens. Inga Lockington, resides in Britain on her EU status and has not taken steps to naturalised citizenship, until now.

Britain is likely to have spent about £2bn on preparations for Brexit by the time it leaves the EU in March 2019, with six core Whitehall departments creating around 10,000 extra roles to cope with the challenge.

In a detailed assessment of Whitehall’s Brexit spending, the Institute for Government, a think-tank, estimated that by the time Article 50 expires a year from now, the six core Brexit ministries alone will have spent at least £1.3bn on policy work.

But it said that once spending by other departments is included, total costs could reach £2bn by then. It added that much of this would fund the increase in staff numbers needed to drive the Brexit process.

www.ft.com/content/5a47caec-2614-11e8-b27e-cc62a39d57a0

This cost is of course only the tip of the iceberg. It does not include the cost to business or the public.

A NEW poll released today has rung an economic death knell for Project Fear, with only a minority of Britons surveyed concerned about negative consequences for the country's economy.
By JOEY MILLAR
PUBLISHED: 00:00, Thu, May 24, 2018 | UPDATED: 07:05, Thu, May 24, 2018
But with EISA’s poll revealing confidence in the future, Mrs May can point towards an increasingly supportive public - especially regarding issues repeatedly raised by arch-Remainers in their Project Fear campaign.
The so-called Brexodus - a huge wave of highly-skilled British workers fleeing the UK for Europe - appears particularly unlikely.
www.express.co.uk/news/politics/964240/brexit-news-economy-single-market-customs-union-brexit-poll

The Brexit bounce making a mockery of George Osborne’s Project Fear
Ross Clark
We are now just two months away from the second anniversary of the Brexit vote and therefore in a position to judge the apocalyptic forecast made by the Treasury in May 2016 in the run-up to the vote. In a paper signed off by George Osborne, which neither the former chancellor nor anyone else who has made a grim prognosis for Britain’s departure from the EU should be allowed to forget, the finest minds in the Treasury came up with two scenarios for the aftermath of a vote to leave the EU. In the ‘shock’ scenario, GDP would be 3.6 per cent lower after two years (compared with if the country had voted to remain), the pound would fall by 12 per cent and unemployment would rise by 520,000. In the ‘severe shock’ scenario GDP would be six per cent lower, the pound would fall by 15 per cent and unemployment would rise by 820,000. But even this could prove to be optimistic, the authors claimed, adding:
“There are significant downside risks which imply that the impact could be even larger”.

How are we getting on? A slew of data released this morning shows just how wide of the mark these predictions were. As for GDP, it is now 3.3 per cent higher than it was this time two years ago. I appreciate that the Treasury’s forecast for shrinkage of 3.6 to 6.0 per cent was relative to what GDP would have been had we voted to remain – something we cannot possibly know. Nevertheless, for the Treasury forecast to have been correct the economy would have had to grow by between 6.9 per cent and 9.3 per cent in the two years following a remain vote – something which is highly improbable as it would have way outstripped economic growth in recent times.

As for the predictions for the pound, the Treasury didn’t actually give a reference currency for its prediction of a fall, but let’s take the dollar. The pound did fall sharply after the referendum but has since staged a strong recovery, especially this year when it has grown by eight per cent against the dollar. On 23 June 2016, while the country was voting, the pound peaked at $1.49. This morning it was at 1.437, which is 3.5 per cent lower. Referendum day saw a spike in the pound, however. Two years ago today the dollar was actually a little lower against the pound than it is today. Against the Euro there has been a decline in the pound. On 23 June 2016, it was 1.31 Euros, compared with 1.157 Euros this morning – a fall of 11.6 per cent. As against the dollar, however, there was a spike on 23 June 2016 (possibly when the result was expected to go the other way). Over exactly two years the decline has been 9.5 per cent.

On unemployment, the gulf between the Treasury’s forecast and the actual out-turn has been astonishing. In June 2016, the unemployment rate was 4.9 per cent, and the number of people in work 31.7 million. Figures released today show the unemployment rate at 4.2 per cent – the lowest since 1975. The employment rate, at 75.4 per cent is the highest ever recorded. The number of people in work is 32.26 million – over half a million more than in June 2016. So much for job losses.

Some Remainers continue to bleat that the referendum was ‘stolen’ by a Leave campaign which told lies and misused data. Yet again the Today programme covered the Cambridge Analytica story this morning. But isn’t it a far bigger scandal how the Treasury sought to bounce the country into a Remain vote by publishing (just before the official campaign began and government departments had to fall silent) an apocalyptic prediction which has proved so unfounded? George Osborne set up the Office for Budgetary Responsibility supposedly to take the Treasury out of the role of economic prediction. But then, when it suited him, used its full muscle to pump out what increasingly looks like a piece of campaigning propaganda. But for some reason this story hasn’t yet reached the Guardian, the BBC, the FT – and least of all the Evening Standard.
blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/04/the-brexit-bounce-making-a-mockery-of-george-osbornes-project-fear/

Why post this rubbish on more than one thread? It does not make it true.

Fake news is disseminated by repeating lies many times.

The fact is that since the EU referendum the economic performance of the UK has sadly lagged behind all of the other EU countries. That is a fact, not fake news.

Varian it is posted on this thread because it was appropriate to do so.

And the other thread Ally. ? Are you going to spam all the Brexit threads ?

Maizie I haven' thought it approprite to the conversation on this thread so no.

Nothing to do with Brexit (hmmm)

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/25/uk-economy-posts-worst-quarterly-gdp-figures-for-five-years

UK economy posts worst quarterly GDP figures for five years
Growth slumps to 0.1%

E27 growth increasing, so far immune to this strange phenomenon affecting the UK

Thanks for that Geri I knew I had seen something to the effect we were not doing quite so well but couldn’t find it.

Let’s just hope that some fairy leaps out of the Brexit bag and makes it all OK for everybody

Britain faces further isolation after Brexit if it doesn’t adjust its citizens’ attitude towards learning foreign languages, a panel of experts has warned, with Britons becoming increasingly “linguaphobic” in the wake of the EU referendum.

Speaking at the Hay literary festival on Friday, a panel including Cardiff University professor Claire Gorrara and linguist Teresa Tinsley, said that Britons had too long relied on a false belief that English was the world’s lingua franca. Only 6% of the global population are native English speakers, with 75% of the world unable to speak English at all. But three-quarters of UK residents can only speak English.

The Guardian view on languages and the British: Brexit and an Anglosphere prison

“That English is somehow the norm is a complete misapprehension of the facts, but this notion that everyone is speaking English is persistent and believed by many in the UK,” said Gorrara, warning that economic opportunities and bridge-building with the rest of the world was at risk after Brexit if Britons did not become less “linguaphobic” and learn more languages.

Deficient language skills in the UK cost 3.5% of GDP, according to 2014 research by Cardiff Business School for UK Trade and Investment.

www.theguardian.com/books/2018/may/28/british-linguaphobia-has-deepened-since-brexit-vote-say-experts

Britain risks missing a vital deadline for establishing full post-Brexit nuclear safeguards, according to Government documents obtained by Sky News.

Late delivery of an IT system and difficulty recruiting qualified inspectors are blamed in the leaked reports.

There are five "high level risks" Britain needs to address before Brexit, identified by the UK's Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR).

They were all categorised as "red" on a red, amber, green alert scale in an internal "Risk Register".

news.sky.com/story/red-warnings-for-uks-post-brexit-nuclear-safeguards-11374097

Varian it has always been thus.
Since The US are English speakers and the UK and (mainly)
Canada, and Australia and NZ amongst others, the English language as a common language ( of business if nothing else) has always dominated.

One of the horrible consequences of the EU referendum has been the divisive effect, with groups of friends and family still entrenched in the "Leave" or "Remain" camp.

In spite of the fact that fabricating stories about the EU had led to him being sacked as a Times journalist, Boris Johnson apparently dithered about which side to back, eventually opting for Leave, not out of conviction but because he thought it would give him the best chance of a shot at the Tory Leadership. His father and sister are strong supporters of Remain.

Boris Johnson's father has called for the Brexit referendum to be "re-run" in the event "perfectly obvious" Russian interference in the vote is proven. Stanley Johnson, a former European Commission employee and ex-MEP, accused Moscow of meddling in the 2016 vote, during which his son spearheaded the Leave campaign. Unlike the foreign secretary, Mr Johnson senior backed Remain at the EU referendum.

news.sky.com/story/boris-johnsons-dad-wants-brexit-re-run-over-obvious-russia-meddling-11390068

Clearly the report of the Johnson family is being used as an example, to portray a family divided by the referendum's "divisive" effect, which has been described as "a horrible consequence in homes or neighbourhoods". My view is that outside the "London bubble" this is simply not as horrible as portrayed in my experience.

Putting things into proportion, remain or leave might have caused debate within families, and some light hearted taunting, a few heated debates, but nothing more than that on the whole. As yet I have not heard of Brexit being cited in any divorce cases, nor have I seen neighbours fighting in the streets. The great British tradition of Pub debates have been going on all over the Country yet no affray's have been cited using Brexit as the reason.

The fact that we are Brexiting, is, in the world outside of the 'London bubble' largely let's get on with it, be we remain or leave voters , either in one family, or a neighbourhood. We are simply sick of hearing that we are a Nation divided is what I am hearing. We, out here in the Country now want to get on with leaving Europe. We are sick of being quoted by those who know nothing about our daily lives that we are consumed with and by the Referendum, we have had a General Election since then based on a pro Brexit mandate from the major party's. MP's are in Parliament based on those pro Brexit mandate's. Our expectation is that they carry out that mandate. The consequences of not doing so will "bite" at the next General Election.

The whole concept of a Nation of voting citizens at war with each other on a daily basis, over a remain or leave vote is just not the case. The media mainly TV and activist media would like to create this image, however it simply is not true.

The lets get on with it is largely the attitude and more representative of the world outside of far left activism, zealots of remain or leave. The family at war, and country divided scenario is false. The propaganda of this false representation of the people of this country, is largely I would suggest, confined to those within the "London bubble", for whom that false image has some political currency.

Just to add some balance to the Johnson story of a family divided. What exactly is wrong with any family in their position of political prominence having different views! What is wrong is the exaggerated exploitation of the political actions of this family, for sensationalism and to support a particular slant on a certain political view. Isn't it great that, like any other family, the Johnson all made their own decision, they all agreed to differ on remain or leave, and like the rest of us probably still have family lunch together every Sunday.

This is what civilised people do agree to disagree without animosity, violence or retribution. No one is better at it than the people(s) of this Great Britain. We (most of us) excel at agreeing to disagree, and enjoy the debate, the argument as well. However let's not forget that our priorities are our every day lives, our work, kids, homes, health this is the real world. Let's keep things in proportion.

Varian I've re-read your OP, and saw the reference to Airbus.
The wings for Airbus planes have been made in the UK for some years, at Brough, and Broughton. Maybe elsewhere.
Then begins the long journey to Toulouse, near where we lived. We once got stuck behind a massive transporter carrying a wing. Now usually moved during the night.
What's going to happen to all those employees employed in that business?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-east-wales-15275906

ps for goodness sake Allygran - haven't you got the message? No-one can be bothered to read your posts.
Flooding.

I think at one time Fennel they moved the wings by road and also by canal but I saw recently that they now use a specially made aircraft which goes to Toulouse. Many people don’t seem to worry as to what will happen to all the workers when the work moves onto mainland Europe -I find it very worrying as the effect will ripple out to many areas of life and think of the effect on the families of these skilled workers - maybe they will be able to move with the jobs.

Ball not person!

The ball & every person are intrinsically entwined .

That just is not the case Bridgeit. One ball one person. Very singular. Can never be plural.

Rude is such an old fashion word, I could give it a more modern term but that would be rude so I won't. People who are simply unable to address the issue attack the person. The lowest level of argument and debate.

Airbus
"There should be "no negative impact" in Wales after an announcement that 3,700 jobs are at risk across Airbus in Europe over the next five years, the company has insisted.
It follows poor sales for its large double-decker airliner, the A380, and its military plane, the A400M.
Airbus said the Broughton wing plant in Flintshire, which employs 6,000, would be able to avoid compulsory job losses.
Workers could instead be redeployed on other projects.
This includes the backlog it has on orders of its smaller commercial planes.
•Airbus warns of impact on 3,700 jobs
•Why the A380 never really took off
•Airbus may stockpile parts after Brexit
•1,000th A330 plane celebrations
It also pointed out that natural movement of workers over the next five years, including retirement, would allow them to absorb job losses as a result of the announcement.
Uncertainty still remains over what relationship there will be between the UK and the EU after Brexit and how that will impact on the aerospace industry.
The Unite union also said the announcement did not imply job losses at Broughton.
A union spokesman said it would be more likely that shift patterns may change to cope with demand.
There has also been a recent large order for A380s, which will involve the Broughton plant, which makes the majority of Airbus's wings."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-east-wales-43317514

none of us are able to comment about any subject without our opinions having being formed by our experiences , lifestyles ,education , circumstances etc. We are all a sum of our parts.
Even a robot’s capabilities are reliant on the source & input of its programmer .

Allygran1 ,I think Fennel was trying to kindly point out that sometimes your posts although very informative & knowledgeable they are sometimes to long for this type of forum, it can slow up or stop the flow of opinions.