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If there was another EU referendum...

(1001 Posts)
Pollaidh Tue 03-Jul-18 18:13:46

Would those who voted Leave still do so? And why? I am genuinely trying to look outside my Remain bubble, but the logic of Leave still continues to elude me. I am asking Gransnet because apparently older people were most likely to vote to Leave.

nigglynellie Wed 25-Jul-18 15:37:49

Presumably the Swedes did this prior to their referendum so had already made up their minds prior to the referendum, so why have it as whatever the result, it was a foregone conclusion whichever way it went!!! What purpose did it serve except to alienate the population!!
You're right there was no preparation for a brexit vote, even when it became clear that this result was on the cards, just arrogance that it would never happen, followed by project fear when it seemed as if it might, and hightailing it to the hills when it did!! Not good not good at all!

mostlyharmless Wed 25-Jul-18 16:09:45

I can’t understand why some people are still claiming that the 2017 General Election result meant the electorate confirmed their referendum vote for Brexit.
Brexit wasn’t a major issue in the GE anyway.
We have a first past the post parliamentary system and the May Conservative Government did not receive the endorsement it expected, losing seats and leaving the Government with a smaller majority, effectively creating a minority Government (until they bought DUP support).
Not a ringing endorsement for the Tory version of Brexit.

Joelsnan Wed 25-Jul-18 16:18:20

mostlyharmless
Both dominant parties fought the election on a Brexit manfesto. Neither of them fought on a Remain manifesto. Advisory or not the acknowledged the will of the majority who voted and prepared their manifestos on delivering. Plus, the majority MP's voted to enact Article50.

Allygran1 Wed 25-Jul-18 16:19:11

Greta thanks for the information and details on the Swedish analysis system. Let's stick to what we know about the two systems and then we will get to the accusations in the next post. The population of Sweden is 9,982,709 0.13 % whilst the UK is 66,573,504 21%. The two systems cannot be compared you are not comparing like with like.

mostlyharmless Wed 25-Jul-18 16:30:43

Labour manifesto 2017 mentions of Brexit

Accept the EU referendum result and "build a close new relationship with the EU" prioritising jobs and and workers' rights
Guarantee the rights of EU nationals living in the UK and work to "secure reciprocal rights" for UK citizens elsewhere in the EU
A "meaningful" role for Parliament throughout Brexit negotiations
Scrap Conservatives' Brexit White Paper and replace with "fresh negotiating priorities" with strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the single market and customs union
Reject no deal as a viable option and if needs be negotiate transitional arrangements "to avoid a cliff-edge for the UK economy"
Keep EU-derived laws on workers' rights, equality, consumer rights and environmental protections
Maintain UK's leading research role by seeking to stay part of Horizon 2020 and its successor programmes
Seek to maintain membership of European organisations which offer benefits to the UK such as Euratom and the European Medicines Agency
Will not allow Brexit to be used as an excuse to undercut UK farmers and flood Britain's food chain with cheap and inferior produce

Labour’s manifesto was obviously very lukewarm about Brexit. Not really an endorsement for Brexit. A Customs Union, with benefits of the single market. Good Friday agreement to be integral.
I agree only Libdems and Greens were openly anti Brexit.

Allygran1 Wed 25-Jul-18 16:53:14

Now to the accusation:

Greta said: The decision to leave the EU was an extremely important one for our country. You also say: Do you not think that the British people deserved to be given facts?

This goes without saying Greta and if you go onto the Parliamentary websites you will see just how seriously and how many fact’s are available as anyone would expect of their Parliamentary system there are many briefing papers covering all departments and all EU agreement areas. Just research it. It’s all there. Also every newspaper, all TV programmes did analysis after analysis during the build up to the Referendum, as did the Remain and Leave campaigns.

Greta Where was our analysis of the consequences of leaving the EU?
In the event of a Leave vote, a country can withdraw from the EU two years after notifying the European Council of its intention to leave. However, leaving would still involve "complex and probably lengthy negotiations", a Parliamentary briefing paper concluded. Talks would be held on the future of the UK's relationship with the EU, including whether it could still have access to the single market. Resolving all this could take some time.
The Briefing paper researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/RP13-42

Greta said: Surely, lies and slogans on buses don't count as an analysis.
The words on the bus actually said “We send the EU £350 million a week. Let’s fund our NHS instead.” Now you can argue if you want that this is a promise to spend £350 million extra every week on the NHS, but it didn’t actually say that, did it?

Greta said: Do you not think that the British people deserved to be given facts?
This is the Department for exiting the European-Union site:
www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-exiting-the-european-union
Lots of ‘facts’ on here. Also you will find lots of ‘facts’ on the EU Brexit site, what an eye opener, it is clear that they will never let us go....we are tied in every which way. Hard Brexit is being forced upon us by the EU. Although they are happy to give free trade no strings no money agreement to Japan, they are not willing to give that to the UK.

Greta said: The EU referendum was badly prepared. The events that lead to the Referendum speak for themselves and are far from 'badly prepared' Greta they started in 2013:

2013: Cameron pledges to hold EU referendum
David Cameron declared that the Britons must "have their say" on Europe as he pledged an in/out referendum if the Conservatives won the 2015 election.
The Tories won the election in May 2015, paving the way for the EU referendum.

2017 and beyond briefing paper
In the event of a Leave vote, a country can withdraw from the EU two years after notifying the European Council of its intention to leave. However, leaving would still involve "complex and probably lengthy negotiations", a Parliamentary briefing paper concluded. Talks would be held on the future of the UK's relationship with the EU, including whether it could still have access to the single market. Resolving all this could take some time. David Cameron has promised to step down as Conservative leader before the next general election in 2020, meaning that - whatever the outcome of the referendum - this period is likely to be dominated by the race to succeed him. The UK government had been keen to get its EU negotiations wrapped up. Mr Cameron could have a referendum - having promised one by the end of 2017

The European Union Referendum Bill was unveiled in the Queen's Speech. This is the UK legislation required to allow the referendum to take place. It has now cleared Parliament and become law, after the government twice saw off attempts in the House of Lords to lower the proposed voting age in the in-out poll to 16. At the same time as the bill made its parliamentary journey, Mr Cameron was seeking approval from other EU leaders for the reforms he wants to achieve before the referendum can take place.
June 25-26 - European Council meeting
The first EU summit after David Cameron won an unexpected majority in the UK general election. The summit ended up being dominated by the migrant crisis and Greek debt crisis. But Mr Cameron used the meeting - made up of all the EU's heads of state - to formally set out his aims. Speaking after it, he said he was delighted the process of "reform and renegotiation" of the UK's membership of the EU was "properly under way".
September 1 - Brussels task force
A new group charged with handling issues relating to the EU referendum began its work. Headed by British official Jonathan Faull, it reports to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.
December 17-18 - EU summit in Brussels
Some thought this would be the summit that Mr Cameron sealed the deal with his EU counterparts, but that turned out to be a bit premature. Instead EU leaders had their first "frank" discussions about the UK requests including Mr Cameron's attempts to convince sceptical EU leaders to accept his plans to limit benefits for migrants - one of the key sticking points in the renegotiations. European Council President Donald Tusk said the discussions should "pave the way" for a deal by February.

2016 January 5 - Ministers free to campaign on either side
David Cameron says Conservative ministers will be able to campaign to leave the EU while remaining in the government. However, he says this suspension of the normal rules of collective ministerial responsibility will only apply once agreement on a deal with the rest of the EU is reached.
February 2 - Draft renegotiation package published
A landmark moment as the European Council publishes a draft blueprint for the proposed changes to the UK's membership of the EU. The document includes a so-called emergency brake on the payment of in-work benefits and powers for the UK Parliament to join with other countries to block EU regulations. David Cameron says the detail needs to be ironed out but the settlement is the best he could have achieved from a "standing start" and is worth "fighting for". Home Secretary Theresa May says the package offers the "basis for a deal" but many Tory colleagues disagree, saying the PM failed to get nearly all the objectives he originally set out in his 2013 Bloomberg speech.
February 3 - David Cameron set out plans to Parliament
Defending the package in the House of Commons, the prime minister insists it will see powers returned to the UK Parliament in a string of areas and will leave Britain "better and stronger". But the Mayor of London Boris Johnson, who Out campaigners are looking to join their side, says that the PM is making "the best of a bad job" and more guarantees are needed over enhanced sovereignty.
February 18-19 - Cameron gets a deal at EU summit
After round-the-clock negotiations in Brussels, David Cameron gets the 27 other EU member states to sign up to a package of reforms. He does not get everything he wanted - he has to water down some of the welfare curbs at the insistence of Eastern European members - but he does get an exemption from "ever closer union" and the four year ban on in-work benefits for new arrivals. He claims the deal tackles the British public's "frustrations" with the EU and ensures the country will never be part of an EU "superstate" - but critics say it does nothing to tackle high levels of immigration and take powers back from Brussels.
February 20 - Referendum date is announced
David Cameron says the UK's in/out referendum will be held on 23 June this year - as widely predicted. If he had not got a deal on 18-19 February he would have had to to return to Brussels at the end of February for a special summit or wait until the next scheduled gathering at the start of March.
His cabinet colleagues start to come out in favour or against Britain's membership as the rival campaigns kick into top gear.
Monday, February 22 - Commons debate
David Cameron makes a statement to Parliament, allowing MPs to debate the deal he has reached in Brussels and the choice facing the British people in the referendum.
March/April - Referendum preparations
Secondary legislation is due to be laid before Parliament paving the way for a referendum. The Electoral Commission will designate the official Leave and
campaigns, which will get access to public funds, a £7m spending limit and TV broadcasts.

23 June - EU referendum polling day
Britain goes to the polls to answer the question: "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"


www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33141819

Allygran1 Wed 25-Jul-18 16:58:50

Whilst the Conservative Party in the GE lost seats, they increased their share of the vote by 40% ish (not sure of the figure look it up) the biggest share of the vote since 1980's.
So as a popularist vote it was outstanding, and endorsed the referendum vote to Brexit, since the mandate was heavily Pro Brexit, and promising to fulfil the Referendum advisory vote of the people.

mostlyharmless Wed 25-Jul-18 17:43:19

Have you got evidence for that amazing 40% increase in the Conservative vote allyg.
How come the Tories lost so many seats and ended up losing their majority if they had a 40% increase in votes? Doesn’t make sense to me!

Allygran1 Wed 25-Jul-18 17:43:31

There is another view of Mostly's interpretation of the Labour Manifesto for the 2017 GE, that is that it was a manifesto promising a Hard Brexit .

I do not subscribe to the New Statesman on line so I cannot cut and paste (Don’t all cheer as one)! However the gist of the article is that 70% of Labour MP’s represent constituencies that voted to leave the EU and up to five million more Labour voters supported leave in majority remain area's it is estimated. When the EU Withdrawal Bill cleared the House of Commons Labour formally ordered MP’s to vote against the Bill at the Third reading. This slap in the face to the electorate of 70% of Labour MP’s is unforgivable and may come back to haunt the Labour Party of Jeremy Corbyn who stood at the GE on a Hard Brexit manifesto by promising to leave the EU by “accepting the result” and that “the freedom of Movement will end when we leave the European Union” The New Statesman say this is hard Brexit “ by definition for freedom of movement to end, we will have to leave the single market, since as the EU’s chief negotiator has observed, the four freedoms are indivisible”. This is being confirmed by the blocking of negotiations that will not allow a division or watering down of any of the four freedoms in order to access the single market.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/01/it-s-time-accept-labour-manifesto-you-voted-promised-hard-brexit

Allygran1 Wed 25-Jul-18 17:45:38

Just preparing the evening meal, so if you give me a couple of hours I will find it for you. It might not be 40% somewhere in the back of my mind 44% keeps coming up. But I will check later.

Greta Wed 25-Jul-18 18:16:46

Allygran, I do not believe that the average man on the street was given easily accessible impartial information about the consequences of a leave vote before the referendum. Joe Bloggs is not political. He does not sit and read parliamentary briefings, statements on Gov.uk websites etc. He votes with his heart. If we, as you suggest, were so well prepared, how come there are so many voters who still say they don't understand what is going on?

crystaltipps Wed 25-Jul-18 18:34:06

That’s all history - what’s important now is why it is proving to be such a mess. Hardly anyone thinks the government are doing a good job. We all now know we are going to be worse off, there is talk ( by government ministers not project fear) of stockpiling, and that any benefits won’ t be evident for at least 50 years. Seems that blindly following an ideology has become more important than doing what is best for the country.

mostlyharmless Wed 25-Jul-18 18:38:19

Rubbish allyg. Don't throw statistics around if you can’t substantiate them.

mostlyharmless Wed 25-Jul-18 18:40:34

If you’re so sure about there being huge support for Brexit why don’t you support a People’s Vote so we can check if there is still such support?
What have Leave supporters got to fear with a People’s Vote?

Alexa Wed 25-Jul-18 18:44:26

Crystaltipps, very good summary.

petra Wed 25-Jul-18 18:48:11

If John Mc Farlane, chairman of Barclays Bank, states that the city will prosper once we leave the eu, that's good enough for me.
I think we can agree that he knows a thing or two about money grin

Allygran1 Wed 25-Jul-18 20:03:42

Mostlyharmless

Did local elections prefigure the 2017 General Election?
It is difficult to estimate the support political parties get across Great Britain in any given set of local elections because not all local authorities hold elections at the same time. The electoral cycle means that local elections are held in different places and not all councillors are elected at the same time. Because of this, we rely on Rallings and Thrasher’s National Equivalent share of the vote (NEV). NEV uses local election results to estimate how major parties would have performed if elections had taken place throughout Great Britain.

Con NEV estimate: 39%; Con GE2017 share: 43%; Lab NEV: 28%; Lab GE 2017: 41%

Based on the 2017 local election results, in the event of a General Election the Conservatives would have received 39% of the votes in Great Britain and Labour 28% of the votes. However, in reality the Conservatives increased their vote share in Great Britain to 43.3% from 37.7% at the 2015 General Election. Labour’s vote share in Great Britain was 41%, a 9.8 percentage point increase on 2015 and its highest level since 2001.

Liberal Democrat NEV was 18%, 4 percentage points higher than in 2016. The actual Lib Dem vote share in Great Britain was 7.6%, less than half the estimated vote share. Although NEV indicated a decline in UKIP vote share (4%, down from 12% in 2016), its vote share actually declined from 12% in 2015 to 1.8% in 2017.

varian Wed 25-Jul-18 20:10:20

The Independent has launched its Final Say campaign to demand that the electorate is given a referendum on the final Brexit deal.

We are incredibly grateful for the positive responses that have been sent to us and expressed on social media.

Here is your chance to join the campaign to have your voice heard on our future relationship with the EU by signing our petition here.

www.independent.co.uk/voices/final-say-brexit-referendum-independent-petition-deal-a8463166.html

lemongrove Wed 25-Jul-18 20:21:10

Posters ask for clarity/ facts/ links etc but when * Allygran*
Posts them on here, some ignore them, because they don’t fit with their own thoughts.Very strange.

lemongrove Wed 25-Jul-18 20:23:17

Petra I saw on the news that Barclays are committed to new buildings ( huge ones) in the North ( I think) I was rushing out at the time, but they obviously have faith in the UK.

varian Wed 25-Jul-18 20:24:09

Barclays have just closed our local bank.

Jalima1108 Wed 25-Jul-18 20:26:42

Not sure that we have faith in the banks though, lemongrove!!

Jalima1108 Wed 25-Jul-18 20:27:00

ps and that has nothing to do with Brexit.

lemongrove Wed 25-Jul-18 20:35:15

All banks are slimming down and closing many local branches, it’s all to do with the rise of internet banking.

Jalima grin yes, I do prefer to tuck my cash under the mattress.

Jalima1108 Wed 25-Jul-18 20:36:54

I have a large whisky bottle full of pennies, must be worth a fortune, at least £10 now.

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