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Are we nearly there?

(149 Posts)
Urmstongran Tue 19-Feb-19 19:47:44

It appears there is a sense of cautious optimism among UK officials in Brussels that a breakthrough over the Irish backstop just might be on the horizon.

Theresa May will be arriving tomorrow to hold talks with Jean-Claude Juncker on the Brexit state of play. And Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General, is also due to present new "technical details" on clarification to the backstop, in a move geared at reassuring MPs that it will be temporary.

The nature of those technical details is shrouded in secrecy. But UK sources in Brussels say that, politically speaking, the details may be immaterial.

Instead, the key requirement is that Mr Cox feels comfortable returning to Westminster and telling MPs that he no longer has reservations about the backstop.

suzied Wed 20-Feb-19 11:40:19

We were told we would have great deal - that we would be better off- that everything would be the same plus we'd have lots more money for public services and we wouldn't have all those furriners. Let's face it. It's a complete mess. those crowing about no deal should be prepared to pay for it. My only consolation is I'm getting an Irish passport along with hundreds of thousands of others, so I can always go there or any EU country when the country goes down the pan. But I shouldn't have to be thinking like this.

Urmstongran Wed 20-Feb-19 11:40:34

Not if you re-read my OP varian
Mind you with how the numbers are stacking up against TM now in the HoC she might find it difficult to get any deal through on a meaningful vote.
This situation changes so quickly!

varian Wed 20-Feb-19 11:42:31

I agree with you UG- there is absolutely nothing predictable about UK politics right now.

Urmstongran Wed 20-Feb-19 11:43:49

Will you really go though suzied?
A lot of people say it.
Bob Geldof, Jamie Oliver, Kate Beckinsale ... ?

winterwhite Wed 20-Feb-19 11:49:15

Goodness me, why should this be a thread just for one point of view? The OP stated her opinion; others are entitled to state theirs - or hope her prediction is wrong. There is no reason for others to drive her out.

Myself I fear the OP may be right, and deplore the party that has brought about this situation and now seems to be rejoicing at the prospect of what will be a far cry from what was promised by the Leave campaign.

gillyjp Wed 20-Feb-19 11:51:10

Well I for one voted for Brexit and with all the ballyhoo for the last couple of years I did ponder occasionally whether I had made the right decision. However with all the disrespect that the powers that be in the EU have shown Theresa May when she's had face to face meetings with them and finally, that insulting comment from Tusk about a 'special place in hell' I really don't want our country to be associated with those sort of people or that sort of insulting behaviour or mind set. The mind set of 'Our way or the highway'. Junker with all his self importance and attitude of unmerited self entitlement and superiority. There's surely a better alternative than that quite frankly for our country. They (The EU) will, in time, be the loser and they know it....

suzied Wed 20-Feb-19 11:56:58

I'm not in the Bob Geldof league but yes, I'd happily live in Italy, France or Ireland as I have lived in the first two and have relatives in all 3 countries. I don't want to relinquish my freedom to do this, hence my application for the Irish passport.

NemosMum Wed 20-Feb-19 12:02:33

Varian, why on earth would you think that the Labour and Tory quitters will be able to stop Brexit? By what means? They will likely vote down TM's Withdrawal Agreement in the "meaningful vote" which means we will leave without a deal on 29th. March, or they will vote for TM's Withdrawal Agreement (unlikely). Since Labour, the Lib Dems, the Scots Nat's and the DUP will vote it down, the Bill will probably be defeated. Either way, we will be leaving a deeply undemocratic, dysfunctional, bullying and doomed pseudo superstate on 29th March. That's a win for me! Our economy is amazingly resilient, the predictions of the gloom-mongers have been wrong, and it will begin to pick up more speed as soon as the result is known. Just this week, the EU has quietly agreed to passport money transfers through the City of London (and vice versa) in the event of a No Deal. We have air transport and port agreements, we can rely on WTO rules of exchange which are actually better than the tariffs the EU insists we charge the rest of the world. We will become a sovereign nation again. It's all happening smile

Urmstongran Wed 20-Feb-19 12:12:54

You misunderstood my posts winterwhite
I have not intended to drive anybody out!

I just thought a couple of threads posted here were more appropriate on Anniebach’s thread about MP’s leaving their parties.

I’m more than happy to hear what dissenters of my OP think.

maryhoffman37 Wed 20-Feb-19 12:16:13

Cox would have said it was OK before if he hadn't been dragged to the dispatch box to disclose his full advice.

varian Wed 20-Feb-19 12:16:39

If that doom-laden scenario was allowed to go ahead it would only be a win for Putin and a tiny number of tax dodging billionaires, the British people would be the losers.

Urmstongran Wed 20-Feb-19 12:36:54

Good point maryhoffman

123coco Wed 20-Feb-19 13:06:37

Urmstongran . Sounds like it’s something you are looking forward to. Groan. It’s a process not an event and it’s been analysed as being more complex than the first moon landing. Were we told this ? Of course not, like all the other lies. Cant believe the level of naivety or denial on here!

Peardrop50 Wed 20-Feb-19 13:37:24

I certainly hope that we are nearly there. Certainty is now the most important thing. I agree wholeheartedly with everything said by NemosMum. Let's get on with it now.

Urmstongran Wed 20-Feb-19 13:41:08

I realise this 123coco
I do like to think I have a degree of intelligence and that I’m not naive nor in denial.
And yes I am looking forward to 29 March - so on that we shall have to agree to disagree!

Sillyoldfool Wed 20-Feb-19 13:46:44

Nemosmum I totally agree with you on all your points.

Brigidsdaughter Wed 20-Feb-19 14:47:16

Anyone, whether in or out, who allows another manned border control in NI, should be asked to work on it to see how safe they feel

varian Wed 20-Feb-19 14:47:40

I like your username sillyoldfool

quizqueen Wed 20-Feb-19 15:24:56

We leave with no deal, regardless, as countries cannot negotiate a deal while they are still in the EU.
The difference is May's deals offers a transitional period where 'Free' Trade continues for a period of about two years with strings attached, of course - the 39 billion pound bill the EU requires just to talk to them about future trading relations, continuing to follow all their rules and regulations and being controlled by their courts and the 'made up' problem of the Irish back stop. The EU forgets it has an eastern border with non-EU countries; there is no Turkish/Albanian etc. backstop. Goods are just checked in advance electronically or at the border. Leaving with no deal means we are free to negotiate trade deals straight away rather than having to wait until the end of the transitional period to sign them, continued trouble with fishing boundaries, we save the divorce money and become a free nation once again in every respect.
I prefer to walk away with no deal as I think the transitional period is just a ruse to keep us in the EU forever and a day. Officials from Japan are already saying a trade deal with them will be better than the one they have with the EU ......because we are more reasonable, I suppose. Liam Fox has already signed future deal agreements with many countries which have free trade arrangements with the EU like New Zealand and Israel so we don't need to go through a transitional stage as other countries are keen to talk to us. The EU will be as difficult as ever during the transitional stage because they are so worried that other countries will want to leave when they see our success so they will want to stay in charge of the trade negotiations, which is bad news for us.

varian Wed 20-Feb-19 15:33:15

A leading human rights lawyer has warned a no-deal Brexit would be be illegal because of the “real and immediate risk to life”.

Jonathan Cooper, who was awarded an OBE for his work in 2007, says the government would be knowingly putting the British public in danger if the UK crashes out of the EU without an agreement.

Citing threats ranging from a shortage of medicines to a breakdown in law and order, he argues the result will be unlawful under the Human Rights Act and the international human rights treaty obligations.

“As a matter of human rights law, as well as the common law, the UK Government cannot deliberately expose people to policies that risk a loss of life,” he argues in an article for The Independent.

“The fact that a no-deal Brexit will mean deaths that would not have occurred otherwise, demands that the UK Government cannot contemplate no deal. A no-deal Brexit would breach the UK’s own human rights laws “The Government knows that there is a real and immediate risk to life by pursuing no deal. As a matter of the UK’s constitutional framework, no deal is simply off the table. No deal breaks the law.”

Mr Cooper, a member of Doughty Street Chambers, says that litigation to stop a no-deal Brexit will be “inevitable” and cases may end up before the European Court of Human Rights.

“The prospect of British cancer patients standing before the European Court simply pleading to stay alive and to put a no-deal Brexit on hold will be the ultimate indignity for Theresa May’s Brexit strategy,” he adds.

“Worse still for the prime minister is that, in the event of no deal, investigations into the loss of life under these circumstances will be carried out in public and responsibility for deaths will be attributed.”

He also claims that the UK could be held to account at the UN and before the European Court of Human Rights – even if an act of parliament was passed mandating a no-deal Brexit. Human rights laws would not prevent Brexit, but they do require a human rights-compliant Brexit,” he writes.

suzied Wed 20-Feb-19 15:42:17

We aren't going to get a better deal than the one we have already - I think Liam Fox has signed 4 trade deals with the likes of the Faroe Islands. Japan isn't interested in the UK now ...Nissan, Toshiba, Sony, Honda anyone? those who support a no deal must have so much faith in our demonstrably incapable government and political system which is falling apart by the minute, to act effectively in our countries' interests, when they have proved themselves to be self serving and incompetent. The only benefit will be to the 1% super rich as we will be come a haven for tax avoidance and money laundering, which is what was wanted all along. Of course it was never about trade , it was about hatred of others, small mindedness and selfishness.

Smileless2012 Wed 20-Feb-19 16:32:43

Scare mongering again varian. "Citing threats" sums up the article you've referred too. "The prospect of British cancer patients standing before the European Court simply pleading to stay alive"angry.

This is his opinion, unsubstantiated and IMO dangerous. If there is any truth in this article then MP's should vote through TM's deal to ensure there isn't a no deal brexit.

There may well be a breakdown in law and order if the votes of more than 17 million are disregarded and we don't leave the EU.

varian Wed 20-Feb-19 16:36:19

That sounds like a threat, as shouted by the thugs who attacked the police outside Parliament. MPs should never vote through any measure which would harm their constituents and must not give in to threats of violence from right-wing bullies or anyone else.

Smileless2012 Wed 20-Feb-19 16:43:34

The 'threat' you are referring too appeared in the article you have quoted from and provided a link too varian.

Let's get real, there will be plenty of MP's who wont vote through TM's deal because of their own party politics and to further their own careers.

Imagine you were currently fighting cancer and read the article you've posted here. Are some remainers so desperate that they're prepared to put the fear of God into others just to get their own way?

Jayemwhite Wed 20-Feb-19 16:44:39

Here, here Naniejel! All this talk of a 'people's vote' makes me cross! I'm a person, I voted, my vote counted & now I expect the result to be honoured. Is it truly democracy when we have to keep voting till we get the 'right' answer, like kids doing sums?