The unofficial 2nd EU referundum taking place today 23rd May 2019

How does it work though joelsnan?

So say we leave on 31 Oct without a deal. What then?

"So what happens if we crash out? Not what you might think.

The immediate consequence is indeed that we fall back on the infamous “WTO terms.” Championed by Leavers, for most economic forecasters (including the government’s) the damage would be immense. Severing links with our largest trading partner would throw the economic system into disarray. Cross-border trade flows would grind to a halt. Sensible Brexiteers concede that it would at the very least be disruptive.

But it would also be unsustainable. And that word is key. For the truth is that the situation could not—and would not—continue. It would not be allowed to.

The reality is that businesses need to trade and goods need to travel. A major economy like Britain needs an overarching deal with its largest trading partner. Forty-five per cent of our exports go to the continent. A government might threaten “no-deal” but no administration could sit on its hands while the system really imploded. The human and electoral consequences would be too great.

We would be looking at a dramatic U-turn. How would it work? In the days after a no-deal departure, the machinery of Westminster would be in convulsions. The government would look on appalled as any remaining reputation for economic competence disintegrates. The newspaper front pages of empty shelves and chaos at Dover will herald doom at the ballot box. The Tory Party and the political class as a whole will start to get very worried indeed.

And that is when self-preservation will kick in. The chaotic reality is precisely what will force MPs to leap to the rescue. They will form groups—cross-party if necessary—and legislate at lightning speed. Within days—weeks, at the most—Britain will be back at the negotiating table.

What happens then? The Chief EU Negotiator Michel Barnier has made clear the price for any orderly agreement is acceptance of the withdrawal deal and the controversial Northern Ireland backstop. This time Westminster will be in no position to refuse.

And what if a new prime minister takes over, promising to implement no-deal on a more permanent basis? No Tory figure could command sufficient support. You would need a majority in parliament that our current sorry crop can only dream of.

This is the reality of no-deal. It is not an end-state but the start of a process. That process will be one of capitulation."

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/what-everyone-has-missed-about-a-no-deal-brexit

varian
Do you sell your services on Blackpool pier?
You have an uncanny ability to know what would happen post Brexit, that is providing it its doom laden. Polish your glass ball and see what could be awaiting us.

Hello joelsnan can you tell me what happens on WTO rules?

You are telling varian she is wrong, so perhaps you could enlighten me?

I wonder if any leaver can let me know what I must expect with a no deal Brexit?

You must all know because you all voted for it, so please can you tell me.

Whitewavemark2
It would work just the same as any trading alliance. There are hundreds of countries outside the 27 of the EU, majority are trading quite comfortably and aligning to like minded countries. Many happy to allow specific free trading agreements. Many we already trade with however we are currently constricted by EU trading terms and tarrifs. The EU is concerned that if/when we leave that we will negotiate more favourable terms with our current non EU trading partners potentially invoking a trade war which, because each other EU country is tied to the group trading directives leaves them in a v difficult position of not being able to react quickly enough and without 26 other nations agreement.

Whitewavemarkmark2
Conversely I wonder if any Remainer will in all certainty let me know what benefit remaining in the EU will mean to me and those who follow.
You must know because you all voted for it, I will be happy to know.

"The claim: The UK trades with "the rest of the world" (non-EU countries) under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.

The EU and the UK have said they want to reach an agreement on future trade, but leading Brexiteers say failing to reach a deal would not be disastrous. They have said the UK could revert to rules set by the WTO, and have claimed that's how we currently trade with the rest of the world.

"It is perfectly fine for the UK to leave and trade with [the EU] as we trade with the rest of the world at the moment, under world trade rules," said MP John Redwood on 19 October.

"Even if we leave [the EU] without a deal, we still get most favoured nation status under WTO rules, which is how we trade with the rest of the world," said Bernard Jenkin MP on 17 January.

Reality Check verdict: This is wrong. With regard to tariffs, the UK trades with 24 countries and territories under WTO rules alone. With 68 others it has, as part of the EU, free trade agreements, either fully or partly in place, which all enable trade on better terms."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41859691

GracesGran trying to belittle another poster again, nasty is as nasty posts comes to mind says a lot about you.

'Justification for voting for any party isn’t required, it is between the voter and the ballot box'. That doesn't make sense to me either. Surely most of us would be quite happen to explain our reasoning for voting one way or another? But I don't understand how anyone can vote for someone like Widdecombe because they agree with her Brexit stance knowing that she seems to be against most things that make our society such a decent one .

lemon as some leavers seem to think we remainers are not very bright please would you remind me of what you said 3 years ago as I can't remember any facts. I can remember 'unelected leaders', 'drunk leaders', 'straight bananas' etc but I am sure some of you have genuine reasons worth repeating.

I have never said that about you so please don't include me in that reference.

I know there is a lot of information on the internet but my question is about why you and others on here have made that choice. Tbh there is far too much on the internet to wade through the dross and work out which is true and which isn't. I would much prefer to hear it from someone of a similar age to me with, hopefully, similar values about the future for our GC.

Surely it would take less time to inform me and others than to keep giving reasons why you can't do so? I only ask for the really important things not every reason.

varian if we leave with no deal it won't be easy to do deals with any country as they will negotiate in the knowledge that we have nothing to bargain with, that we are desperate. Let's not forget the 70+ countries we have deals with as part of the EU which will all have to be renegotiated.

Joelsnan Mon 27-May-19 14:31:39 can you not see that sarcastic comments like that harm your cause? I know you are not alone but it gives fuel to the fire against you.

Joelsnan again in answer to your question please see above to varian. Also:

It is common sense that a little country like UK won't have the vast buying power of a large organisation like the EU. Our corner shop can't compete with Tesco etc.

We have freedom to travel easily within the EU whilst retaining our own borders.

Wherever we are in the world we can go to any EU country's embassy for help if we need it.

Workers from the EU are net contributors to the UK economy and we value the taxes they pay.

Workers from the EU come and do seasonal work which our own people will not do meaning that we get to eat seasonal crops which would otherwise go to waste. It also means reducing food miles.

We can have health treatment under the same terms as whatever EU country we are in (I think its all of them).

The pound has dropped significantly due to the vote and it is predicted that it will drop further making imports more expensive.

We have already seen companies leaving the UK and/or setting up businesses in the EU because of the Brexit vote.

I'm not sure but have a feeling that there will be a lack of trust in the UK after all this if we leave.

I think that should be enough for now. Happy to discuss if anyone disagrees.

Without an agreement Joelsnan, on future trading relations — particularly some kind of free trade agreement — trade between the UK and the EU will be based purely on WTO terms. There is a difference between terms and rules.

The duties and controls will this impose on trade between the UK and the EU will impacts mainly on agriculture and industries that depend on products which repeatedly cross between the UK and the rest of the EU, such as components to make cars (who we are already frightening away) or ingredients for processing food.

On top of that, the UK would lose the benefit of free trade agreements it now has with countries such as South Korea and Canada as a member of the EU. We would have to start again and negotiate with them. Who do you think they will give the best deals to? A large body like the EU or little old GB? That's why we joined the EU in the first place.

With more British imports and exports would facing tariffs it would means UK services, which can currently access the whole of the EU’s single market (i.e. currently, the 28 member states plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway) relatively freely, would only be allowed the much more restricted access of the EU and UK’s commitments in the WTO. Trading only on WTO terms is the default position, but in fact, no country does it. This is why, as Whitewaves article explains, "It is not an end-state but the start of a process."

And how do you think those negotiations will go? particularly if we have refused to pay our bills as some suggest we should. Do you think we would be welcomed with open arms and deals be offered that are advantageous to us? That's another pig I see flying over.

Membership of WTO depends on the other members agreeing to another country joining - a couple of countries have said they will object to U.K. joining - have no idea where that will leave us then - out in the cold?

Well put GGMk3

Welsh from frying pan into fire I suspect

Crystal balls a plenty amongst grans it seems.

Facts though are different. Wasn’t it 10 000 job losses on a vote to leave and we have virtually full employment. Economy doing well!!!

No one knows what leaving or remaining will bring because it’s all pure speculation and no one knows

Nonnie
Just about everything you said was available to us prior to us joining the common market.
We always did travel relatively freely throughout Europe and much of the world.
Anyone can ask for help from any Embassy if they are in ned.
Workers always did come and do seasonal work, just as many students from UK used to fruit pick in Europe.
I think you will find the health agreement is not open as you would imagine. We have the EHIC, but still advised to take travel health insurance. If tou live in the country you can get the same treatment but most times this involves shome co-pay.
The pound responds to world issues not specifically EU.
We lost many of our manufacturing industries to Eastern Europe prior to any Brexit vote and due to indiret attractive subsidies and cheap labour.
The only way we would not succeed would be a continuation of the pessismism, apathy and dummy throwing by some.

If I was the EU though I would not even begin to enter into any agreement with the UK until they agreed to the expat issue, the EU workers, the NI issue and got back the money owed.

joelsnan I’m not sure that is right about the EHIC. My DiL fell and broke her ankle in Spain this year. One operation 6 pins and two plates, 4 days later she left hospital with advise and pills.

No payment and kind and professional service. What an excellent system.

Nonnie
You brought up the subject of bananas. When you have the time read up on how the eu, the worlds largest importer of bananas screws some of the poorest countries in the world on price.
Just 2 little facts on the value of a banana.
The worker takes 7%
The retailer takes 41%
The worst culprit is Tescos.
You also might want to look up the trade agreements with Africa.
How can it be right that Germany makes more profit on coffee imports than the county that produces it?

joelsnan one of the most valuable institutions in the EU as far as the individual businessman is concerned is the ECJ.

Any business is entitled to go to the ECJ for a ruling if he feels that he has a grievance against another trader for whatever reason. He is not dependent on his government being willing to act on his behalf.

It is a very democratic and fair process, and all businesses have willingly signed up to it.

Compare this to the WTO judicial process.

The individual and business of all size do not have access to the WTO judicial system. This means that if a business comes up against unfair trading practices, he then has to try and persuade his government to take this grievance to WTO court. This is a complex, expensive and political litigation, which governments tend to choose not to pursue. Only a very tiny amount are brought to the WTO
Secondly as these claims are only brought against states, other businesses will not benefit from any rulings, unlike the ECJ rulings.
Complaints can only be brought against other states, not against WTO rulings.
Appeals are widely used with frequent success in the ECJ
The resolution system has no real bite, so compensation for past loss through incorrect tariffs does not exist. Unlike the ECJ which can rule monetary compensation.
Any state can in effect ignore any ruling by the WTO.
Trump springs to mind here.

The EU acts on behalf of all its businesses in WTO judiciary system, and being a large economic block has a good deal of clout.

So that makes it ok for Johnson to make up EU rules about straight bananas does it?

That’s one real and valuable benefit.

So I’ve outlined 2

EHIC
ECJ

I can outline some more if you want.

The free trade agreements we have through the negotiations of the EU are very interesting and show in particular how much the U.K. has benefited.

Joelsnan I think you were selective about which of my points you picked up on.

No, we used to need a passport to travel through the EU, we don't now so save all the queuing.

The proposal is that to come to work in the EU one will have to have a job paying £30k or more so the seasonal workers won't be able to come. I think it is a very long time since our youngsters picked food in the EU but they won't have a right to do so if we leave,

Yes anyone can go to any embassy but will they get help? EU embassies are required to help. I can think of many embassies I wouldn't want to ask for help. I've actually been to the Iranian one and know how they treat women.

We will lose the EHIC which means we will have to pay the full cost instead of what the locals pay. That will mean the cost of travel insurance will go up.

The £ responds to world issues but responded directly to the 2016 vote and has lost 20%, that was no coincidence.

Whatever the reason we lost jobs prior to the vote we have lost a lot more as a result of the vote and it will get worse. I was only talking about things to do with Brexit not what happened before the vote as that would not appear to be relevant.

Your last comment does not deserve a response.

petra yes, straight bananas! Don't know how you managed to mix it up with what you wrote! What has any of that to do with leaving the EU?