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Preparing for No Deal

(195 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Wed 12-Jun-19 17:39:03

Well it seems that this is firmly back on the table, which will thrill some and horrify others.

What does no deal mean though?

It means leaving on the 31 October and beginning at ground zero. We will immediately enter WTO rules in all our trading activities throughout the world which means we will have to comply with our WTO schedule listing the tariffs with which we must comply.
We have said that we wouldn’t charge tariffs on most goods coming from the EU, but I am unclear how we could apply that rule to just the EU as surely we must comply with the most favoured nation, which means we must apply the same standards to every country?
However, our businesses who export will have tariffs imposed on their products making them less competitive than other businesses who trade under various trade agreements. Many farmers are expected to go out of business and where possible other businesses will move to the EU. We are seeing this process already.
The EU will of course immediately set up checks at the border.

Urmstongran Fri 14-Jun-19 09:19:18

I will save that post Whitewavemark2 and it’ll be interesting this time next year to compare your dire predictions with the reality!

We shall see.
?

GrannyGravy13 Fri 14-Jun-19 09:19:26

I can never forgive or forget those who voted for Tony Blair.

WMD sending our brave servicemen/women into a totally needless war!!!

I am reliant on medication WW.
Our business imports from inside and outside the EU, we have had 3 yrs to put in place a plan of action.

Difficult yes, achievable yes!!

GrannyGravy13 Fri 14-Jun-19 09:21:49

Mrs T would have been more circumspect about signing us up
to more cumbersome treaties.

Also if the referendum was run under her government we would be out by now and a prosperous nation!!!

MaizieD Fri 14-Jun-19 09:32:34

Mrs T would never have allowed a referendum. Not in a million years.

It's utterly pointless to speculate on what would have happened if she had.

FWIW, I think she'd have seen off UKIP and the ERG group, no bother....

Whitewavemark2 Fri 14-Jun-19 10:00:21

ug I shall be the first to apologise and be eternally grateful that our country is thriving.

fc yes

Whitewavemark2 Fri 14-Jun-19 10:02:53

Thatcher devised the single market it was her baby. She would never have left, as she was so committed and recognised the value of to the type of trade zone we have enjoyed for the past 40 years.

I can’t believe I’m talking up Thatcher, whatever is the world coming to?????

Granny23 Fri 14-Jun-19 10:15:28

Whilst I think that a No Deal Brexit will be disastrous for the UK and I would not wish it on anyone, the other side of the coin is that it would undoubtedly lead to a YES vote in a second Scottish Independence referendum. This would leave RUK without tariff free access to the food, including fish, prime beef, ect. produced in Scotland and the excess of oil, wind, wave and hydro power which currently flows effortlessly across the border. Meanwhile Scotland will prosper, still in the EU with tariff free access to the huge EU markets and an influx of Finance houses who will relocate their Headquarters from London to Edinburgh.

I expect there will be an influx of remainers from South of the Border, and exiled Scots, who will be welcomed warmly because one thing Scotland is short of is population.

Elvive Fri 14-Jun-19 10:16:17

Our brave servicemen and women do as they are told, I think?
Blair got it wrong ( or so it seems)

Whitewavemark2 Fri 14-Jun-19 10:18:38

granny23

It occurs to me that if you win your independence and stay in the EU, yet more borders will be put up. ?

Granny23 Fri 14-Jun-19 11:25:21

WW2 Yes it would mean another border for RUK, but one less border (the EU one) for Scotland.

Urmstongran Fri 14-Jun-19 12:36:58

Yet what has been largely overlooked – because it runs counter to the preferred narrative – is that Varadkar himself has started backtracking.

He gave an interview to Bloomberg where he essentially agreed that a soft border was possible even in the event of No Deal!

He made almost exactly the same points that various members of the ERG had been stating for several months.

Yet when ERG members said it they were howled down as either ignorant of the situation or thoughtless as to the delicacy of peace in Northern Ireland.

GrannyGravy13 Fri 14-Jun-19 13:12:17

Urmstongran there is also a video on twitter from someone from EU (sorry I have got brainfog and cannot remember his name) saying that it is definitely possible to have a "soft border" in NI, and that there is the technology available to do so.

There does seem to be an amount of backtracking going on from all directions at the moment..............????

GrannyGravy13 Fri 14-Jun-19 13:37:40

Sir Mark Sedwell (head of civil service) has given an interview saying that UK is in pretty good shape and prepared for no deal!!!

varian Fri 14-Jun-19 13:50:53

What was that slogan from three years ago "take back control of our borders"???????

crystaltipps Fri 14-Jun-19 13:54:29

If you believe the U.K. is “prepared for a no deal “ you must be living on a different planet. I know someone who is a civil servant who was drafted on to no deal planning and the things she’s told me are a hoot.

GrannyGravy13 Fri 14-Jun-19 13:57:43

crystaltipps I have more faith in the head of the civil service than posters on GN!!!!

I think he is better informed and has a greater knowledge of the situation.

crystaltipps Fri 14-Jun-19 17:43:11

Well, sorry he would say that wouldn’t he. They have drafted in hundreds of civil servants from the jobs they should be doing plus taken on loads of extra staff with minimal training, hundreds of them spend their day phoning round businesses asking them what they are doing for no deal planning. Most say “nothing”.

crystaltipps Fri 14-Jun-19 17:45:05

Meanwhile, it’s payback time: The North-East will lose millions of pounds under funding plans once Britain leaves the EU, whilst London and the South-East will gain billions, a new report has claimed. A report from Locality, a national membership network for community organisations, found the North-East would lose almost £480m under the Shared Prosperity Fund, the Government's EU funding replacement scheme, compared to London and the South East which will both gain more than £1bn each. Good eh?

Urmstongran Fri 14-Jun-19 18:00:36

Why are businesses ‘doing nothing’ regarding planning for No Deal?

Seems daft to me.
Plan for the worst and hope or the best, surely?

varian Fri 14-Jun-19 18:03:22

Why UG? are you admitting that a no-deal brexit is "the worst"?

Most of the UK population have understood for a long time now that the best possible outcome is to stop brexit.

Urmstongran Fri 14-Jun-19 18:05:13

I don’t regard it as ‘the worst’ varian

Business does - which is why I’m surprised that they’re not preparing for it.

Firecracker123 Fri 14-Jun-19 18:07:05

Project Fear stepped upto high alert I see will be upto critical by the end of next week. The smears the dire warnings we've heard it all before and take no notice now, well the sensible ones among us don't.

Urmstongran Fri 14-Jun-19 18:14:26

I agree Firecracker123

We will be up to DEFCON.1 before you know it!

crystaltipps Fri 14-Jun-19 18:21:37

Ok so you are now saying it’s sensible not to do anything as no deal is going to be so marvellous. So why are the government spending millions trying to persuade businesses to make plans?

Urmstongran Fri 14-Jun-19 18:41:53

Nope. I didn’t say it was sensible not to plan for No Deal.
I’m just very surprised businesses haven’t done so. Seems weird. Then again parliament took No Deal off the table for a few months and it’s back on now. Preparations will be stepped up accordingly I imagine.