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More expert opinions to be ignored?

(50 Posts)
mcem Thu 18-Jul-19 11:16:22

Phillip H fears the consequences of no-deal brexit.

OBR predicts possible recession, 2% drop in GDP by end of 2020 and a £30 billion hole in public finances ( that amount of increased borrowing and huge increase in national debt - above £2trillion ) .
That's in the "most benign" scenario which is unlikely. A far harder brexit is being pushed by ardent brexiteers.

No funding available for BJ's tax cuts or JH's increased spending.

But what would the experts know?

Justme67 Thu 18-Jul-19 11:37:39

In fact what does anyone know? Like most of these things until the deal is done, no-one actually knows what will happen, the "experts" can only give an opinion, and if it works out well, then they take the credit, if it is all wrong, then it is due to "previous" events. As an ordinary person, I admit I know very little about what goes on in the world of high finance, exchange rates, etc., but I do know that if there is not enough money to pay for something, the wrong way to go about rectifying that deficit is to borrow, and so I am sceptic about where all this extra funding is coming from. Wait and see is all we can do while the people who should be looking after "OUR" money continue to dither. I am not usually politically vocal, but I am really sick to death of the promises which all seem to me to be a bit pie in the sky at the moment.

mcem Thu 18-Jul-19 11:50:55

Frankly, I am sick of 'wait and see'!
I'd rather trust the OBR and IMF than BJ machinations to achieve public office or cynical manoeuvres by NF to make mega bucks!
Simplistic comments made in the past about ignoring expert opinions have helped the situation not one bit!

lemongrove Thu 18-Jul-19 11:57:36

Justme67 your post is the most sensible I have read on GN for a

varian Thu 18-Jul-19 13:37:56

A study in April this year found that the cost to the UK of brexit since 2016 was £66bn.

This is not a theoretical figure estimating future costs but a factual figure measuring the damage that has already been done - and we haven't even left yet.

Think how much £66bn (ie £1,000 each for every man, woman and child in the country) could have done to make life in the UK better. What an utterly pointless and tragic waste.

SirChenjin Thu 18-Jul-19 13:47:33

It's kind of like saying 'what do doctors/plumbers/architects/teachers/insert other professional of choice here know'. Personally I'd rather not wait and see what would happen with my heating system, I'd rather see what the experts opinion is and take their advice.

maddyone Thu 18-Jul-19 15:29:20

The trouble is SirChenin, that you can’t take their advice, or anyone else’s advice. We can all wring our hands and pontificate till the cows come home, but we can’t do a thing about it. Whatever will happen will happen.

paddyann Thu 18-Jul-19 15:44:24

Philip Hammond is even more scare of Scottish Independence will leave England without the finances it needs to survive ..his words .GDP in Scotland is currently over twice what it is in England with Scotland contributing well above what it should to the "UK" pot .Be prepared for a very bumpy ride when we go !!

SirChenjin Thu 18-Jul-19 15:51:38

maddy - absolutely. What will happen will happen, but I'm certainly very concerned about the projected financial disaster that is Brexit that the experts are forecasting.

Interesting opinions there paddy - care to back up your figures or quotes (without referring to any nationalist sources)?

maddyone Thu 18-Jul-19 16:07:52

You're right SirChenin, simply my view, but I think, as in the words in the song, whatever will be will be.

mcem Thu 18-Jul-19 18:46:32

What a defeatist attitude!
Did women just sit back waiting passive!y until they were given the gift of the vote?
They were ready to make me their case loudly and defiantly!
Would the LGBT community enjoy the freedom they have today if they'd just shrugged their shoulders and followed the advice to avoid "making a fuss"!

SirChenjin Thu 18-Jul-19 19:18:41

I suppose the difference here is that Brexit came about as a result of a public referendum. That’s not to say I agree with the way that it came about or whether we should use simple yes/in/out referendums for such major changes - I don’t

Daisymae Thu 18-Jul-19 19:26:41

I think that the new PM should face a personal fine if he takes the country over the cliff top. Might concentrate the mind.

varian Thu 18-Jul-19 19:29:10

Brexit came about as a result of a fraudulent referendum where a minority of voters were fooled by the leavers lies.

Day6 Thu 18-Jul-19 19:34:40

Not only that, you don't have to even read between the lines to appreciate that most experts are biased in terms of leaving or remaining in the UK.

You'd think the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney would be an expert, but it transpired that all of his remainer forecasts of doom and gloom previous and post referendum were embarrassingly wrong!

No one knows what the future holds. Not even the experts. They make predictions based on what they know now, as did Mark-I got-it-very wrong-Carney.

maddyone Thu 18-Jul-19 19:35:30

Never mind mcem, whatever we do, however much we wring our hands, what will be will be, like it or not. It’s best not to get too worked up about it, it’s not good for health.

Day6 Thu 18-Jul-19 19:41:23

what do doctors/plumbers/architects/teachers/insert other professional of choice here know'

But finance and economics is fluid, depending on many, many other factors. If the ball-cock goes in your loo, a new part is needed. Easy to diagnose, easy to correct.

All a stock broker can go on is trends. There are so many factors from all over that change the outlook of a stock. It's a risky game. And they get predictions wrong, quite often - as did 'expert' Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England grin

(Just in case you missed my other post, up there...)

Day6 Thu 18-Jul-19 19:42:06

I totally agree Maddy.

SirChenjin Thu 18-Jul-19 19:46:51

Mark Carney might have got certain elements wrong but what about the ones he and others got right?

My point about the plumber wasn’t about trends - it was that I tend to listen to the opinion of the experts. I might decide that my heating system will be OK for another few years and that I’m prepared to take the chance but I would probably decide it to replace it now based on the opinion of one plumber (or several of it’s likely to be expensive) - or that I would have treatment A rather than B because the best evidence at the moment suggests it’s the right course of action

M0nica Thu 18-Jul-19 21:12:07

Well, most of us make economic judgements all the time based on what we think will happen in the future, we buy houses judging that we will be able to keep up the payments for 25 years, we plan for pensions and holidays and our ability to repay car loans. we save for the future.

We do all this based on the information we have and estimate about ourselves, our professions, and others. Sometimes we get it wrong, but mainly we get through.

The economists who make these forecasts are trained economists, who have specialised in examining the entrails of economies and making forecasts for the future that we (although we usually do not realise it) and governments use their forecasts to run our lives and the economy. Of course they disagree at times, but usually, they are broadly in agreement and broadly right.

I am an economist, but not an expert in the field of economic forecasting, I tend to research the names and organisations behind the different forecasts and judge them that way. A bit like making sure the man who repairs my central heating is a Gas Safe member.

mcem Thu 18-Jul-19 22:07:42

I think what's bad for health is inertia, a helpless attitude and a feeling that the "powers that be" know best.

You didn't comment on the 2 struggles I mentioned. Is that because you prefer to sit back, let others do the work and then with luck, reap the benefits?

Much of what we as a society enjoy today, is the result of struggle and even dissension.

Never mind, there will always be someone who'll actually stand up for what they believe and if we can't actively join the 'fight', the least we can do is lend support.

M0nica Thu 18-Jul-19 23:28:02

paddyann I assume you are talking about this article. Aah, lost the link. It starts by saying Scottish GDP is bigger than UK GDP but in the second sentence makes it clear that it is talking of growth in GDP, not GDP itself. In fact Scotland's total GDP is only around 8% of total UK GDP.

So, sorry to spoil your illusions but Philip Hammond is sleeping easy in his bed. The rest of the UK will actually benefit from Scottish Independence. Under the Barnett formula, Scotland gets more money per head from the government block grant than any other region except Northern Ireland and this money will then no longer be being paid.

Deedaa Fri 19-Jul-19 10:13:04

As someone who spends much of her time working on applications for research grants from the EU, totalling millions of euros (for one small area of research) DD knows that this money is already drying up and British research groups are already quietly being dropped from international projects. She doesn't hold out much hope of our government jumping in to replace this money.

Razzy Fri 19-Jul-19 12:02:06

Well considering the experts consistently get things wrong, and the Brexit experts have admitted being too pessimistic the last couple of years, where their forecasts were shown to have been completely wrong, I shall take the experts view with a pinch of salt! No one knows. This is all best guess stuff. The experts are paid to look at risk management, worse case scenarios. Yes money will have been spent on leaving the EU, but we will gain by not paying into the EU. No one knows what tariffs will be set but as one of the richer EU nations I expect EU members will be keen to sell us stuff still.

Labaik Fri 19-Jul-19 12:48:05

'No one knows what tariffs will be set but as one of the richer EU nations I expect EU members will be keen to sell us stuff still.'...out of interest, would you be prepared to stake your house, pension, savings etc on the possibility of that happening?