Today Sajiv Javid, Chancellor of the Exchequer, spoke at the Tory conference offering many wonderful spending promises.
Obviously these are designed to be vote winners but how could anyone believe any of them?.
No-one can possibly know anything about our public finances unless the brexit nonsense is resolved.
There are three possible scenarios_
1 - We remain in the EU. This is the best scenario but not as good as it would have been without this brexit nonsense because in the last three years we as a country have wasted £billions of taxpayers money, £billions of the money of UK businesses and billions of Euros of our EU partners, and most importantly we have lost a huge amount of goodwill and credibility, not just in Europe but around the world where other countries see us as a laughing stock.
2- We have an exit from the EU with some sort of agreed divorce deal. This would mean a two year transition period during which we could plan our future. Obviously this is not as good as retaining EU membership, this would by most estimates,. cost us about 3% of GDP. So the revenues to the exchequer would be that much less.
3- A so-called "no-deal brexit". This would entail crashing out of the European Union with no agreement on the divorce bill, the status of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the rest of the EU, and most importantly the question of the Irish border. If that happened there would be huge disruption to our trade, not only with our EU partners but with the other countries with whom we trade by means of EU trade agreements. All these "divorce issues" would have to be addressed before we could even start negotiating with these countries- who are our closest neighbours and major trading partners. The cost of this scenario is estimated to reduce our GDP by 9%.
It absurd and utterly meaningless for Sajiv Javid to announce any spending plans without these issues being resolved.