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Nobel laureate economist says there is ZERO chance Brexit will leave the UK better off

(65 Posts)
GagaJo Sun 29-Sep-19 21:30:24

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/brexit-paul-krugman-zero-chance-britain-better-off-eu-leave-single-market-custom-union-exports-trade-a7965871.html?utm_source=bestforbritain.org&fbclid=IwAR3Aw15u8iAkiUgLmtwLR8ST_q0vBm7gt_EbXK2r5HmS9ggaGqCxfgfAySQ

SO. Don't believe 'Leavers' if you don't want to. This guy is THE expert.

Day6 Mon 30-Sep-19 13:48:40

Oh dear growstuff. You are not in the least concerned. You just like to taunt. Do grow up and contribute to the discussion rather then deride people, if you possibly can.

Hetty58 Mon 30-Sep-19 13:49:07

growstuff, we have a golden opportunity for change! Answer me this:

How will remaining in the EU make UK society more equal?

lemongrove Mon 30-Sep-19 13:51:00

Yes, very good post Hetty and also Monica.
Experts ( in any field) disagree with each other quite often.

grapefruitpip Mon 30-Sep-19 13:52:20

There is nowhere where everyone is white well dressed speaks in BBC English and lives fairytale lives

I beg to differ paddyann, although, I have never visited this fabled land there are some GN, who do infact live there.

Day6 Mon 30-Sep-19 13:55:40

But, what does going on and on about it achieve?

grin KittyI have this conversation with myself daily! It achieves absolutely nothing.

I also tell myself not to read the News and Politics forum. Getting embroiled is beginning to seem like a huge waste of time.

Let's get Brexit done and move on. (My Remainer friends feel the same way. We just keep going over old ground.)

MaizieD Mon 30-Sep-19 14:00:11

I'd ask you much the same question, Hetty

How will leaving the EU make UK society any more equal?

I'd also ask you who we are going to trade with that we don't already trade with and what are we going to trade; particularly bearing in mind that the Brexit economist, Patrick Minford has said that leaving the EU will lead to the loss of our manufacturing and agricultural industries?

And why would a country offering a market of 66 million people (of which about 4 million are held to be impoverished) get any more advantageous terms than a market offering some 500 million people?

growstuff Mon 30-Sep-19 14:49:45

Because (and you've been told this umpteen times) it is not a case of just walking away. We are faced with years and years of negotiations and the sooner we thrash out an agreement with the EU, the sooner we can start the real business of creating some kind of future outside the EU. Do you really not grasp that?

growstuff Mon 30-Sep-19 14:51:11

We are going over old ground because people's livelihoods depend on getting answers and, so far, they have been fobbed off with waffle. Is this really what taking back control was supposed to be all about?

growstuff Mon 30-Sep-19 14:53:56

Hetty We know what staying in the EU is like. We can work with our sovereign parliament for equality, just as we could have done since we joined the EU. We have always had the power to vote for whichever party we want. Inequality is the fault of the British government not the EU.

You tell me how that will change.

growstuff Mon 30-Sep-19 14:54:34

Day6 You could always follow your own advice to yourself. Nobody's stopping you.

growstuff Mon 30-Sep-19 14:56:13

If you want less inequality Hetty, vote Labour.

growstuff Mon 30-Sep-19 14:57:41

Actually Day6 I'm extremely concerned about the future of my country. Maybe you see my posts as taunting, but that's your perspective. Maybe if anybody ever had any sensible answers ...

growstuff Mon 30-Sep-19 15:00:11

By the way Day6. I'm immune to patronising and sneering comments such as yours.

I actually did try to start a sensible, proactive and positive discussion about "WOODMOUSE"'s link, but it appears people such as you are more interested in snide remarks.

grapefruitpip Mon 30-Sep-19 15:09:13

Oh God remarks and nasty little asides and of course " jokes"

Hetty58 Mon 30-Sep-19 15:54:01

Growstuff, as it happens I am usually a Labour voter. However, I don't slavishly follow the party where Brexit is concerned. Unlike JC, I don't change my mind on a whim (or pretend to). I don't vote from self interest either but out of concern for others. Again, my vote was not all about economics or the pound in my pocket - I have quite enough. If I didn't agree with the result - I wouldn't expect everyone to vote again!

Continued economic growth is often seen as the complete answer to all our problems. There's the 'trickle down' theory that everyone will benefit - but where's the evidence? Of course, growth is often incompatible with environmental concerns. If we fail to take them seriously, there is no bright future (or future at all). The only sustainable future will be nothing like the past.

Historically we've had the rise and fall of farming, manufacturing, service and information industries, all still important but next the spotlight's on environmental issues and solutions. The UK financial sector alone is unique and powerful too. We have no need to belong to the EU. The only certain thing is change, so there's no point in stagnating and resisting change.

Freed from EU restrictions and penalties, we have a better chance of change for the overall good. We'll have the flexibility to adapt to our own economy and more opportunity to resolve inequalities without our expensive 'ball and chain'. The minimum wage and taxation will have to increase, however unpopular, and we need a new focus on education, housing and services befitting our country, one of the richest in the world!

mostlyharmless Mon 30-Sep-19 16:57:46

It’s true the economist Patrick Minford does think Brexit would be good for Britain’s economy.
BUT...... it would destroy our agriculture and manufacturing industry. Jobs don’t matter if the City is making loads of money! Employment rights would disappear.

a report by economist Patrick Minford and his “Economists for Free Trade” outfit. It wants to unilaterally abolish all our trade tariffs with the rest of the world after Brexit. That would decimate our farming and manufacturing industries, forced to suddenly compete with global giants. Minford is relaxed about this. During the referendum he wrote that Brexit should “eliminate manufacturing”.
infacts.org/as-brexiters-mask-slips-the-ugly-truth-is-revealed/

MaizieD Mon 30-Sep-19 17:19:09

Do you feel that you could answer any of my points, Hetty?

Joelsnan Mon 30-Sep-19 17:35:47

mostlyharmless
Why, when EU employment law was basically UK employment law adopted by the EU and tweaked (working time directive comes to mind) would our current employment laws disappear?
Have we become such a snowflake society that we could not challenge our MPs?
To make the country successful the last thing a government post Brexit should do would be to alienate its workforce.

mostlyharmless Mon 30-Sep-19 17:50:25

Joelsnan The Infacts report (link above) says:

His new report, which was enthusiastically backed by Rees-Mogg, also assumes that all the safety, environmental and other standards currently imposed on imported goods from the rest of the world would be removed. That’s bad news for consumers. Is the food you’re eating safe? What about the toy your child is playing with?

When the economy is pressurised by unlimited competition from the rest of the world and cheap unregulated imports flood in after a No Deal Brexit, those market forces will squeeze employers and they won’t be able to afford the wages and employment protection that we enjoy now.

Once we’re out of the EU (especially with a No Deal Brexit) we’re going to be in a much more competitive environment. Protection of employment rights and environmental standards will start to disappear pretty quickly.

Day6 Mon 30-Sep-19 18:35:57

We are faced with years and years of negotiations and the sooner we thrash out an agreement with the EU, the sooner we can start the real business of creating some kind of future outside the EU.

WHY growstuff should we be faced with years and years of negotiations"?

We all want to create a future outside of the EU - so rather than allow this Remainer House of Commons hijack the Brexit process, why don't we end the stupidity that keeps us deadlocked, leave and THEN negotiate a trade deal with Brussels? We will negotiate on a level playing field too and it will be more amicable, not this stupid game of cat and mouse.

That won't be allowed to happen because of those MPs in the HOC who will not accept the result of the referendum, or respect democracy.

We want a relationship with the EU, and amicable one which doesn't cost us billions in order to trade with member states.

The EU has already said "take it or leave it" the HOC doesn't want the deal - three times it has rejected it - so this Westminster fighting and putting obstacles in the way is getting us nowhere fast - just ramping up the angry feeling in the UK. What purpose does it serve?

Does it serve some political party's to be at the throats of others? Is that the game, to preserve stalemate?

Moving on and forward has to be the priority of Parliament. If it continues to keep us stuck in this no-man's land we will know their game is about far more than EU membership.

MaizieD Mon 30-Sep-19 18:44:32

and THEN negotiate a trade deal with Brussels?

That is what the years and years of negotiations will be about. That and all the other trade deals with the rest of the world.

Day6 Mon 30-Sep-19 18:45:16

Protection of employment rights and environmental standards will start to disappear pretty quickly

Why?

We have transferred laws from Brussels to UK statute books and as far as I know, the UK has always been extremely hot on ensuring employment rights are in place.

Environmental standards. Why all of a sudden will ours suffer? Are we going to become some sort of unenlightened nation just because Brussels has lost jurisdiction over us?

We are not a hopeless third world country. We are very clued up on our rights and standards and have been for as long as I've been working.

If we have implemented good practices because of our EU membership they will be retained. This is 2019 - people have expectations and governments are held accountable. We are not going backwards into the dark ages just because we leave a so called trading bloc.

Day6 Mon 30-Sep-19 18:49:24

That is what the years and years of negotiations will be about. That and all the other trade deals with the rest of the world.

We already trade with countries outside the EU. We're already in the WTO, as is the EU.

We will be trading differently not standing still because we don't already have contracts and deals in place.

There will be a period of transition and negotiation, obviously, that is a given, but it will hurt member states of the EU too if Brussels decides to play hard-ball with the UK. The world is looking on.

humptydumpty Mon 30-Sep-19 19:16:33

grapefruitpip

"There is nowhere where everyone is white well dressed speaks in BBC English and lives fairytale lives

I beg to differ paddyann, although, I have never visited this fabled land there are some GN, who do infact live there.

I'm intrigued, where is this place, since some GN do live there I presume you are thinking of a real place?

Joelsnan Mon 30-Sep-19 20:01:18

What I don't understand about this presumption of years and years to agree a trade deal is:
Countries in the rest of the World who want to trade with the EU negotiate on the terms of compliance, meeting the EU standards etc.
The UK would, as a former but recently resigned member still be compliant, so why would it take years.
If the EU find UK non compliant then it will be their policies and procedures that are at fault.