Nobel laureate economist says there is ZERO chance Brexit will leave the UK better off

Day6 and Joelsnan

Just one of you ask an expert in making trade deals "How long do trade deals take to negotiate and agree?"

When we leave the EU there will be no trade deals in place because every deal we have, all over the world, we have as a member state of the EU. Once we are no longer a member state every single one of those deals lapses. We may have a few agreements with a few countries rolled over, for the time being, but most countries will want to negotiate fresh deals; on more advantageous terms to themselves if they possibly can.

As for WTO, it's not a trade deal. It's bare minimum rules for trading with other countries. Every country in the WTO organisation makes trade deals with other nations and gets away from WTO rules as much as they possibly can. There are lots of other trading blocs in the world, the EU just happens to be the biggest and best.

I haven't the strength to address any more of your points...

Johnson’s Government has been desperately trying to find a way around the Irish backstop, which they know none of the ERG or DUP will accept, meaning that any deal will fail in Parliament.

They have come up with the idea of what they are calling “customs clearance zones”.
The idea being that goods are checked and cleared at particular sites, and their movement then monitored by GPS.

However it appears that this idea, always supposing it is workable and there are serious questions over its viability, has not gone down well with the Irish government or business representatives in NI. SDLP leader said that any form of physical barrier poses a security and economic risk.

Angela McGowan director of CBI in NI. tweeted
Angela McGowan
@angela_mcgowan

Hard infrastructure in N Ireland at this stage of the negotiations? Such proposals are an absolute disgrace. Suggesting U.K. govt doesn’t take NI’s economy or peace process seriously!

The director of NI retail consortium said that these proposals show that Johnson’s government is not listening to business.

To come up with such a proposal at this stage of the negotiating process must indeed have Brussels banging its head against a brick wall.

It is quite unbelievable that Johnson would consider this to be remotely acceptable to anyone in both the Irelands.

This makes absolute sense to me

Labour

Very encouraging reports from the PLP last night.
It is in the national interest and party interest to resolve #Brexit before any General Election.
The way forward is a confirmatory referendum in which the Labour Party campaigns to #Remain in the EU.

Some thoughts on brexit

Jo Maugham QC
@JolyonMaugham
If MPs agree a withdrawal agreement before an extension is secured they leave Government free to No Deal. So they won't. If Government wants MPs to vote for a withdrawal agreement it must agree an extension now, expiring on ratification of the withdrawal agreement.

David Allen Green
@davidallengreen
The UK seriously is suggesting that the solution to the Irish border issue is to create three borders instead of one

Robert Peston
@Peston
You've probably got this from someone else already, but I am told that at a meeting of the parliamentary Labour Party tonight MPs of the left and right, and in Leave and Remain seats, were "unanimous that Brexit must be resolved BEFORE an election either through...

MaizieD
I do recognise that current EU formed trade deals will lapse. My point is why should new deals take years when effectively our trading processes would be still EU processes (unless it was decided to change them dramatically, which I can’t see). The UK should be immediately be compliant and so would not need years to align.

One idea a day at the moment, all with the hope that the EU can eventually be blamed.

David Allen Green
@davidallengreen

Anyone who turned off the media at 11pm last night and turned it back on now will have missed an entire Irish border proposed "solution" just come and go

If the UK remained compliant with the EU they wouldn't be able to do a deal with the US.

????

John Crace
@JohnJCrace

Let's try to make sense of this. The govt sends non-papers to the EU. When they are leaked they turn out to be non-non-papers that everyone rubbishes. So now the govt is trying to knock up a new version of a non-non-non paper

MaizieD
But they would be compliant with trade deals negotiated by the EU.
I suppose the point would be wether UK/trading partners would want. to retain the same processes or modify. The US already trades under EU terms.

Dominic Cummings has told a meeting that he expects the last weeks of October to be spent in the courts.

It's not just about compliance, but tariffs. There are literally hundreds of them to be negotiated with many different countries, including all the "new" markets we've been promised. Professor Michael Dougan reckons that historically a single trade agreement has taken four to seven years to negotiate.

Meanwhile, World Trade Organisation tariffs are so punitive that they will make British meat exports prohibitively expensive, even with a devalued pound. Tariffs on milk and other dairy products will inevitably lead to bankruptcies on the Irish border, where farmers rely on seamless and tariff-free trade.

Negotiations with EU countries can't even start until a Withdrawal Agreement is agreed.

I've heard very little about trade in services, which make up the UK's most valuable export.

Survation Poll

Remain. 54%

Leave. 46%

Tbis latest poll reflects the real "will of the people" and has done for almost three years.