A no-deal brexit would destroy British business

jabberwok

It is dog eat dog in this world and we are simply another bone for the EU to chew over. We don’t even qualify as a dog now I’m afraid, just one if the bones for the powerful economic blocks.

So it is no good moaning about how the EU is treating us, it is rightly looking after its own interests.

What on earth did you think would happen?

To be grateful that coronavirus is levelling the playing field is a bit extreme, but let’s face it it’s a gift for this government to blame the crashing £, economy etc on it rather than their own obstinacy and inflated sense of superiority.

With luck and a fair wind the figures for April will be the worse it gets, May should show a tiny improvement, but the economy is expected to shrink by a further 15% by the end of the year.

Brexit With some sort of deal will at worse further contract the economy by p2% overall but it will be felt differently in different regions of course.

A no deal brexit which is being threatened will contract it even further

What I can't understand is why the far left are SO enamoured with the EU? I would have thought that it represents everything that the left disapproves of. Vast salaries, unaccountable expenses, dictatorial attitude particularly towards weaker countries, big business their only interest, arrogant attitude to anyone who dares to disagree and threaten to rock their comfortable boat. Real!y strange!! About the only thing I admired Corbyn for was his long held eurosceptic view,until of course it diplomatically changed! Or did it? we shall never really know!!

I don't think they are enamoured with the EU. That's why Corby was consistently anti-EU. Before the referendum, I only knew two people personally who admitted they were going to vote leave. One is a stinking rich hedge fund manager; the other claims to be a Marxist. Certainly, a number of influential far-right people argued for leaving, although some changed their mind nearer the time, as more details emerged.

Canada doesn't share coastal waters with the UK. The problem with fishing is a commercial one. UK fishermen sold their quotas. Maybe if the UK's representative on the EU Fisheries Commission had been a bit more pro-active (actually attended meetings), the situation would be different.

Why on earth should the EU do the UK any favours? Anyway, we'd all better get used to changing our fish eating tastes.

You are correct about the far left jabberwok

And of course the wealthy who play the stock market and who stand to enrich themselves post brexit, and of course the other extreme far right.

The U.K. fishermen sold much of their quota to EU families.

The EU supports the EU fisherman, and has the clout to do so, there isn’t a lot we can do about it unless we negotiate away something else, which the EU is prepared to accept.

The farmers were sold a pup of course and are now regretting it.

We are now in the worse depression in our history, and yet Johnson guided by Cummings and of course the ERG headed by Mogg, appear to be of the opinion that a no deal Brexit and it’s catastrophic consequences will be lost in the milieu of the pandemic.

The CBI continually warn the government of the terminal damage it will inflict on so many businesses, but the ideologues only have eyes for the sunny uplands of cloud cuckoo land called post brexit.

If Trump is re-elected he will continue to pursue the protectionist policies evident in his first term, and American clout means that there will be few crumbs for the U.K. in and trade deal.

If a Democrat is elected, they will of course place the EU above the UK as they believe a strong European economic block is essential for economic world balance and peace.

We need a government of vision, like the post WW2 government, but this will never happen all the time these ideologues hold the power. Johnson has surrounded himself with a “cabinet of mediocrity” (David Gilmore).

We will never achieve anything worthwhile all the time this government is in power.

It's a whole new ball game now. The world recession is a far greater problem than our tiny country leaving the EU!

“The U.K. fishermen sold much of their quota to EU families“.

Actually it is “English“ fishermen that sold a lot of quota to the EU. Scots have very sensibly held on to most of theirs. Not much can be done about that they were legal transfers, but at least we can manage the fish stock better, the EU fisheries policy was a disaster.

In a fast-moving world full of rapid changes, we can't keep thinking the same old way. We have to challenge our ingrained thinking habits to become better and faster problem solvers and decision-makers, able to think strategically or tactically depending on what the situation calls for.

I just came across this in something I was reading. It's about mental agility. Says it all really.

It’s not going to be possible to separate the Brexit and Covid 19 effect on the economy, be sure it wont be good, both together is just what we didn’t need.

The EU will look to help it’s own members from Corona virus, Spain, Italy and others, why do some expect them to give any favors to the UK. The end game is - are we willing to fit in with their system?, if we are not, we pay the price in tariffs or regulation. Imports can be waved in if we want to and no doubt a lot of essential goods will be, my sympathy goes to exporters who are going to have to comply with detailed regulation.

A even with a deal, brexit means a huge increase in form-filling and unproductive work, over which none of us will have any control.

I wonder if the Brexiteers are rubbing their hands with glee, thinking that they can now blame all the issues Brexit will bring with it on CV. I suggest they should not rely on it though; we will be able to see the effects of CV all round the world and compare, noting the extra challenges Brexit brings and no doubt seeing it mainly hitting those who have little in the first place.

^ Imports can be waved in if we want to and no doubt a lot of essential goods will be..^

Possible that it won't be worth the transport company's while to carry goods to the UK. There may no be delays getting in, but there will be delays getting out because of UK exports getting held up at the EU ports for paperwork and physical checks. Delays cost money which may severely affect their profits. Also, I don't know how many take backloads, but that may become problematic for the continental carriers, too.

Grandad might have more thoughts on this as logistics was his industry...

More than 1 million people have signed the food standards petition

www.nfuonline.com/news/latest-news/nfu-food-standards-petition-hits-one-million-signatures/

An extension by any other name will feel as sweet

UK govt floats idea of 6 month single market “free customs area” implementation period in 2021 as an alternative to an extension.

Idea is to avoid an extension but keep “business as usual” during ongoing trade talks.

This will come as no surprise to followers here.

GGumteenth

I wonder if the Brexiteers are rubbing their hands with glee, thinking that they can now blame all the issues Brexit will bring with it on CV. I suggest they should not rely on it though; we will be able to see the effects of CV all round the world and compare, noting the extra challenges Brexit brings and no doubt seeing it mainly hitting those who have little in the first place.

Don't rely on rational thinking and logic.

Whitewavemark2

jabberwok

It is dog eat dog in this world and we are simply another bone for the EU to chew over. We don’t even qualify as a dog now I’m afraid, just one if the bones for the powerful economic blocks.

So it is no good moaning about how the EU is treating us, it is rightly looking after its own interests.

What on earth did you think would happen?

Well, I guess if we bong our bells loud enough and wave our blue passports (even if they are the wrong blue and manufactured in some foreign factory) everybody will stand to attention and run away, scared - we are, after all, the United Kingdom (oh, hang on, the United Kingdom probably minus Scotland and maybe minus Northern Ireland in a few years).

Wow! Didn't we do well?

Fox is being lined up as trade negotiator?

Liam Fox: "If the UK maintains its existing standards on food, animal welfare and good farming practice, then the US will walk away from negotiations."
Not holding many cards now, are we?

What happened to numerous trade deals that Fox was working on 4 years ago?

A ByLine Times article about border controls.

_Start-
Though it made much of controlling the borders, Mike Buckley reports how the Vote Leave Government is abandoning the principle at great cost to business and the NHS

Well governed countries do not rip up trading relationships or fail to protect their own borders, yet that is exactly where our Government is heading. Michael Gove recently announced that the UK will not impose full border controls with the European Union (EU) on 1 January, deal or no deal. He tried to paint this as providing help to businesses as they adjust. In reality the move is an admission of Government failure.

The Government have failed — and clearly expect to continue to fail — to conclude a viable deal with the EU. Just as bad, despite the fact that the end of the transition period has long been known, they have failed to prepare on the ground for the imposition of border controls.

The lack of border controls on the UK border will be of minimal help to business. The EU will impose full controls. They have no intention of letting the UK become a back door for substandard goods entering the Single Market. In contrast, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Gove seemingly care little if the UK becomes a dumping ground for poor quality food or products.

Gove’s move is no more than an acceptance of reality. There is no time to recruit, train and deploy customs staff. There is no time to build border infrastructure.

The Government have no answer to business’ legitimate desire to know what future trade requirements will be. The same is true for service companies wanting to continue to do business on the continent. In contrast the EU will be ready for 1 January and will implement checks to secure borders and protect citizens. For service companies, the legal system which governs cross border contracts will cease.

Gove’s move is no more than an acceptance of reality. There is no time to recruit, train and deploy customs staff. There is no time to build border infrastructure. Given their refusal to extend the transition period the only option now is to admit defeat and become a global rarity — a rich, developed country without controls on its own borders.

The Government want us to believe that this decision gives business certainty. It does nothing of the sort. The uncertainty businesses face will simply be extended it by a few months. Many will still need to complete customs forms for the first time. They still do not know what the future relationship will be. They still have no clue how to prepare.

Impact on Medical Imports

The importance of all this business cannot be overstated. While COVID-19 has been challenging it has not affected supply chains. Exporting and importing businesses have been able to trade as normal, benefiting them, consumers and the NHS, which is reliant on open borders for access to medicines and PPE.

Access to medicines, in particular, could become an issue after 1 January. The NHS has used the medicine stockpiles it built for a ‘no deal’ Brexit. Given the ongoing nature of the pandemic and an NHS waiting list of other complaints likely to hit 10 million this year they will have little chance to rebuild.

The last thing the NHS will need in January will be disrupted supply chains when they could be dealing with a second COVID-19 wave and a winter ‘flu crisis. Gove failing to check items as they leave or arrive will do little to speed things up as full checks will remain on the EU side. The lack of process on this side of the border could even hamper EU checks; they will have no customs officers on this end to talk to. If incoming border checks truly are absent there is the nightmare scenario of medicines reaching the NHS that are out of date or falsely labelled.

Business leaders are unimpressed with the Government’s change of plan. Anna Jerzewska, a trade consultant, said it remained unclear how companies would benefit from a light-touch border regime. “The procedure only delays the obligation to submit a full customs declaration,” she said. “It doesn’t remove it. The additional administrative and cost burden for the private sector doesn’t actually change.”

Business has long been wary of unequal treatment of imports and exports but that is exactly what the new regime means. National Pig Association advisor Ed Barker said the Government would need to decide between imposing low tariffs — causing huge damage to the domestic farming sector — or maintaining tariffs on EU imports and forcing prices rises for consumers.

There is then the question of timing. The EU will demand tariffs are paid immediately, the UK will allow a 6-month deferral, disadvantaging UK producers.

Negotiation Ploys

Business certainty will only come when a deal is agreed but the negotiations are stuck. Our Vote Leave Government wants continued Single Market access while we opt out of its rules, standards and legal system. Michel Barnier, negotiating on behalf of the EU27, is clear that this will never happen. ‘We cannot accept the UK’s attempts to cherry-pick parts of our Single Market benefits,’ he said on 10 June.

The Conservatives have long stopped caring about business. They ditched business with Theresa May’s Lancaster House speech. Defining Brexit in the hardest possible terms — inevitably wounding business and the economy — was not forced on them by the Leave vote. It was a political choice made for reasons of internal party management and electoral calculation, not real-world benefit.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has calculated that the UK economy will be damaged more by COVID-19 than any other developed country. We will suffer a second blow in January because of Brexit. Even if we generously see Coronavirus impacts as a mix of fate and bad governance, Brexit is the Government’s responsibility alone. Hard Brexit is their choice, as is the end date of transition and stalemate in negotiations.

Failing to prepare to control our borders displays Government impotence in the face of Brexit impacts, not strength. They have played the strongman for their vote base but the EU27 remain unmoved and will not imperil the EU project for the Conservatives’ benefit.

End

bylinetimes.com/2020/06/22/jeux-sans-frontieres-boris-johnson-gives-up-controlling-the-uk-border/

I tried to make it shorter, but it defeated me...

I still read it all as it is interesting and informative but in the end depressing!