How confident are you in a good deal for the UK?

Government assessment if no deal is the outcome.

This is what leavers knowingly voted for.

This apparently is the likely outcome.

Many poor who will suffer as a result did not vote for this

Many disabled and sick who may find medicines difficult to come by did not vote for this

Many people who will lose their jobs did not vote for this.

1) Flow rates of medicines and medical products "could initially reduce to 60-80% over three months which, if unmitigated, would impact on the supply of medicines and medical products across the UK".
2) "Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK and may absorb significant amounts of police resources. There may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions."
3) "EU and UK fishers could clash over the lost access to historic fishing grounds, and there could be a significant uplift in illegal fishing activities."

4) "Competing demands on UK government and devolved administration maritime agencies and their assets could put [maritime security] enforcement and response capabilities at risk."

5) There will be "reduced [food] supply availability, especially of certain fresh products" and "supply of some critical dependencies for the food supply chain... could be reduced".

6) "Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel."

7) "Border delays, tariffs and new regulatory barriers/costs may result in disruption to supply of critical chemicals used in the UK... leading to the disruption of essential services (such as food, energy, water and medicine). Economic factors could result in some chemicals suppliers reducing operations or closing."

8) "Border delays could affect local fuel disruption. There will not be wider national-level oil shortage."

9) There is a risk of a reduction in the supply of medicines for UK veterinary use which "would reduce our ability to prevent and control disease outbreaks, with potential detrimental impacts for animal health and welfare, the environment, wider food safety/availability and zoonotic disease control which can directly impact human health".

10) "Between 40-70% of trucks travelling to the EU might not be ready for new border controls. This could reduce flow across the short channel crossing to 60-80% of normal levels with maximum queues of 7,000 trucks in Kent and delays of two days. The worst disruption would subside within three months

11) The transition from "internal security cooperation with the EU" to "non-EU mechanisms" may not be smooth and seamless and may "result in a mutual reduction in capability to tackle crime and terrorism".

12) Around one in 20 local authorities are at risk of financial collapse as a result of higher service demand caused by a disruptive EU exit.

Biba in one post you say you truly love GB and yet in a previous post you hope the the EU make us pay. You spend most of your time doing down a country you profess to love.
I agree with Lemon on the European economies and would add that the French economy has been struggling for some time and even Germany had problems before COVID reared its ugly head. I don’t agree with posters who say that the 27 work together and support each other, the few powerful nations dictate and the poorer nations are compelled to follow.
I do think that the whole European experiment will implode as it gets bigger and even less accountable and we will be better off on the outside looking in.

biba70
Nobody^will ever trust Great Britain again^
Japan trusted us enough to sign a trade deal
Canada trusted us enough to sign a rollover trade deal and agreed to start more advanced negotiations next year.
Australian talks are going well.

Breaking news:
Fishing rights have apparently been agreed upon.

You do realise WW that MaizieD will be along at some point and ask you to name the source of your cut & paste? She has a bee in her bonnet about such things.
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I don't believe that the EU sees us as an enemy

I voted Remain

However we have left.

I heard an interview this morning with Dr. June Raine who I know many have mentioned on here with regard to the vaccine and the EU.

She was asserting that there would be no problem with people accessing medicines, medical devices and vaccines, deal or no deal

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55206518

Petra the Japanese "deal" is the same as the one we had,its hardly going to make a difference and as someone pointed out the airmiles will be horrendous .

paddyanne
The Japanese could quite easily have said: sod you, we don't like the way you operate
But they didn't, did they? They liked the colour of our money, and that's all it comes down to.

A quick update on the talks.

Tony Connelly.

1/ On fish, both sides are far apart, but it sounds like the UK wants the EU to jump first before it, in turn, shows flexibility. The UK is offering a three year phase in but with an upfront payment of €300m in demersal fish (ie, out of the €650m EU boats catch in UK waters)

2/ Then each year after the phase in there would be a link between EU boats getting access and a hand over of stock. EU sources say this would be disastrous for EU boats - demersal stocks are basically all the whitefish + prawn (nephrops) that make up the most valuable EU share
3/ The EU is proposing a 10 year phase in, at which point EU fleets would forego 18pc of the value of what they catch now in UK waters. Then there would be a review. The UK is said to be insisting on 80pc
4/ Source says both sides are so far apart that meeting somewhere between 18pc + 80pc wd not work. Access seems to be the battleground. This is where the UK is wielding the sovereignty tool: deciding who has access to your waters will satisfy that sense of new found sovereignty
5/ The UK approach appears to be: we cannot start talking about access until we know how much fish quota EU boats will have in order to utilise that access. And if the Commission doesn't move from 18pc then we can't have that conversation
6/ I'm told the UK will show flexibility on the €300m and access if the Commission makes that first move; on the EU side there is still the option of linking UK access to the EU's lucrative energy market in exchange for fisheries access
7/ On state aid, the UK is resisting any ex ante requirement for subsidies to be notified to an independent UK regulator. London is also resisting "direct effect" ie the ability for an aggrieved party to take action in the UK courts due to an allegedly unfair subsidy
8/ The UK is also claiming that the EU has suggested that its €750bn covid recovery fund shd be exempt from EU state aid rules, but that any UK fund wd not be exempt from the state aid provisions of the FTA (waiting to hear back from the EU side on this)
9/ The most difficult issue of all is the so-called "ratchet" or "evolution" clauses in the level playing field. The EU sees this as vital: both sides shd broadly agree to share common standards over time, but if the UK diverges the EU shd be able to take appropriate action
10/ Otherwise, the UK could simply diverge at will and give itself a manufacturing edge, while still enjoying tariff and quota free access to the single market
11/ The UK sees this as akin to tying the UK to EU standards and that if the UK exercises its sovereign right to diverge then it would be penalised for exercising that right. This is obviously a hard nut to crack...

Urmstongran

You do realise WW that MaizieD will be along at some point and ask you to name the source of your cut & paste? She has a bee in her bonnet about such things.
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Source

The Government

This is what Vote Leave promised

A guide to the various options

Leave voters went into this with their eyes fully open

“Cabinet office doc seen by Guardian on no deal scene:

"The likelihood of a systemic economic crisis has increased and will have major impacts on disposable incomes, unemployment, business activity, international trade/commerce, market stability, and security decisions/capability"

Urmstongran

Breaking news:
Fishing rights have apparently been agreed upon.

Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
Source say Michel Barnier has told EU ambassadors that there has been no breakthrough on the fisheries question, and that reports to that effect were “completely untrue”
7:06 AM · Dec 7, 2020·

Let’s face it, leavers don’t care about the state of the U.k. economy, they just want to keep those foreigners away, so the economic arguments will never be accepted. Otherwise, what’s the point? They don’t want to be reminded of the promises made, no deal was ever mentioned as a possibility back in 2016, now it seems we’re told that’s what everyone wanted all along - total rubbish, but it shows how gaslighting works.,

I blame SKY news for my misinformation!

You seem very smug in your statement vegansrock about us Leavers wanting to keep foreigners away (and some people use the derogatory term ‘forriners’ to make us seem worse). Please don’t presume to speak for this Leaver.

I can’t see fishing ever because no agreed.
French want Channel Island waters, they can’t have them as they are not nor ever were part of the EU. But independent.

Re: fishing.

Not just SKY news. This, 3 minutes ago in the Guardian on line -

“ A major breakthrough has been made in Brexit negotiations on the rights of European fleets to fish in UK waters, EU sources told the Guardian last night. They said the two sides had all but finalised terms on access for EU boats to the UK’s 200-mile exclusive economic zone, with a transition period understood to be between five and seven years.”

Who is right?

Who is right?

I'd go with Michel Barnier

There has to be an agreement, simple as that.

Johnson’s problem is satisfying the 80+ hard liners who are holding the country hostage by refusing any sort of compromise which would ensure less economic and social disruption.

Johnson knows he is finished if he does anything that the hard right don’t approve of.

The question is whether Johnson has the balls to stand up to these idiots.

He would undoubtedly be able to sell the deal to the country but he is stymied by the hard right.

George Eustace has admitted on Marr
-food prices will rise
-there will be shortages
-the promises to farmers may not be kept
- nor to fisherman
-pet passports and driving licences not sufficient
- no answer on healthcare
Thanks for that -hope those who support Leaving can tell me of the benefits apart from keeping foreigners out and blue passports. Funny that it is going to be harder to deport foreign criminals after Brexit - they haven’t flagged that one up.

They must be desperately trying to manage the information given out to the public.

Andrew Bailey, the new Governor of the Bank of England, who was appointed by the Johnson government, says a no-deal brexit would cause even more damage to the UK economy than the pandemic

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-damage-bank-of-england-coronavirus-andrew-bailey-b1760810.html

This poster from the 1970s shows how far to the righ5 the Tory party has moved