What I think will happen tomorrow

If the people of Hartlepool were really so dead keen on kicking Labour out, how come so few people turned up to vote? It seems more likely they're beyond caring.

Why can't the BBC find presenters who can read?
Almost every time the results are read out, they get it wrong, apologise and then come out with the correct line.
(This also happens to the recording officers)
It's bad for my heart!
My 14 yr old DGS could do a better job.

Dinahmo

MerylStreep

Tickingbird
I like your last sentence ?
Personally, I’m over the moon that the people of Hartlepool have given the Labour Party the finger.
The Westminster elite have had contempt for these people for how long?
But now at long last those people have shown their contempt for the Labour Party.

Surely the Westminster elite comprises more than one party? And it's not the LP that has the majority. Or have the Tories suddenly developed a true understanding of the working poor?

Dinahmo
It seems I’m a little bit behind with my terminology.
A Labour shadow minister has quit because he thinks the Labour Party are London based bourgeoisie and woke social media warriors

I’m really pleased Jackie Baillie (Labour) has kept her seat in Dumbartonshire. She can continue to be a thorn in Nicola Sturgeon’s side in Holyrood. Excellent result.

Well I never - Shaun Bailey not humiliated at all. Oh well, can’t get all my predictions right.

Well you’ll all be delighted to know that my local council, stayed LD - well I am, they deserved to. CC stayed strongly Conservative but it’ll be interesting to see PCC results next week.

Long way to go yet sw for London mayor. Pretty neck & neck right now but by tomorrow SK will emerge the winner. Shame really. I like Shaun Bailey.

Urmstongran

Long way to go yet sw for London mayor. Pretty neck & neck right now but by tomorrow SK will emerge the winner. Shame really. I like Shaun Bailey.

Yes you would

Fantastic comment Ursmtongran - you summed up the Labour party's problems in a nutshell. Northern "red wall"voters have zero interest in wokeism - or champagne socialists. Labour is no longer the party of the working classes - that is now the Conservatives. I want to see Labour make a resurgence because I believe in democracy and people having genuine options when it comes to elections. Jeremy Corbyn may not have been everyone's cup of tea, but he was a genuine old-fashioned socialist. The Labour party have lost their way, and seem to have no idea what exactly they stand for in 2021. I believe in a strong opposition - and Labour are not currently providing that. The loss in the by-election in Hartlepool should make the Labour leadership take a long hard look at themselves - the Conservative candidate had twice as many votes as Labout, despite Labour having held the seat for decades. I said to my husband a couple of days ago that I had no idea what the modern Labour party stand for. Clearly I am not the only one.

Boris won because of the brilliant vaccination programme. Dominic Cummings tried to stir things (Boris's wallpaper etc) cos he got booted out. Simple as that. ?

Saetana I think that really is Labour's problem. The "traditional" Labour voter had a manual job and was probably a member of a union. Until about the 1950s, the lives of such people were hard and sometimes precarious.

Fast forward 70 years and changes to society in the post-war years mean that those people are older, but considerably more secure. They probably own their own homes outright and have lived through a period of economic boom. Some of them live in towns now in decline and look back with nostalgia to times which seemed better.

Some of them blame the EU, immigration, "wokeness"/PC, students for the disappearance of values which they held dear and a society in which they personally flourished. Why on earth would they vote for a Labour Party which bangs on about food banks and poverty?

Hartlepool might be the tenth poorest town in the country, but the majority of people are not destitute and it's easy to blame those who are for the situation they are in.

The Conservatives understand all that. They won't do anything about it, but they can promise that they will. Hence, the appeal to the emotions with flags and nationalism rather than any coherent economic plans.

Meanwhile, the people who are really suffering are the young, who can't find secure employment and can't afford to start on the property ladder. They are possible well-educated, which is something the "traditional" Labour voter sometimes resents.

Society has gone (and is going) through a period of change. If Labour represents the underdogs, as it has done historically, the people at the bottom of the pile have changed and Labour is finding it difficult to find a niche. Add to that the 10-15% from an immigrant background. Some are discriminated against, so might seem like natural Labour voters, but many of them have come from quite wealthy backgrounds and have natural Conservative values economically and socially.

I desperately want to see a government other than the one we have, but I fear we won't get one if Labour continues to beat itself up about being socialist enough, class warfare and identity politics. It needs to find a way which will appeal to and benefit the majority of the population and that very well mean a total upheaval of traditional party affiliations. In fact, it would be surprising if it doesn't happen at some time, just as it has in other countries, notably the US in the twentieth century. I don't envy Starmer his role.

Urmstongran

Long way to go yet sw for London mayor. Pretty neck & neck right now but by tomorrow SK will emerge the winner. Shame really. I like Shaun Bailey.

Good grief! Is this a parody?

I think the "working class" have changed but the Labour party hasn't. It still treats everyone as if they are working in mills and coal mines, are uneducated and unable to think for themselves. The majority of the electorate understand more than the Labour party give them credit for.

They want to be allowed to improve their lives and the lives of their families - like it or not whilst they support equality they are not impressed by politicians "taking the knee".

Yes I agree growstuff with that analysis Starmer or whoever has an unenviable task.

I agree growstuff , the working class has changed , and parenting has changed .

I agree growstuff , the working class has changed

Best analysis I’ve seen growstuff - thoughtful, realistic and very sobering.

Brilliant post Growstuff.

I hardly dare add anything, except to say that the whole referendum/Brexit process acted as a catalyst for a sea change in loyalties & identity in British politics and a split not between the old right and left, but between progressive and small-c conservative, liberal and authoritarian.

jane very helpful addition imo - thanks

Labour needs to change so much. How can a party that elected Corbyn and put up with his shannanigans be taken seriously. If they don't present a strong opposition soon, get a leader that is relevant with some ideas, not a multi millionaire clever lawyer, most importantly come up with ideas and solutions before and not after the decisions have been made and listen to the concerns of the people they represent they will be history. They just don't listen. The Woke movement is really upsetting that many people, majority sick and tired of it.

Yes growstuffs was a good post but completely depressing

I want my politicians to be clever. One of the reasons I didn't like Corbyn was I thought I was cleverer than he was. I like Starmers intelligence.

The far left started putting the boot in yesterday, Corbyn , McClusky .

Alegrias1

Sounds pretty likely to me. Although I have never heard of Shaun Bailey.

Should I be embarrassed?

No!!

I hadn’t heard of Shaun Bailey