Voting intentions.

A lot of my Conservative friends have completely turned on him.

I don't really discuss politics with friends but I have been inwardly quite happy about it.

I don't think much of Labour at the moment though and they need to do more to win the votes come the day.

PS. I agree with you that people don't take kindly to the people who "won't* be paying the "Health and Social Care Levy".

Dinahmo I didn't claim that the "grey vote" objected. Please re-read.

What I wrote is that political strategists think in terms of particular demographics. They group people according to shared characteristics and try to woo them with promises and "sweeteners".

They sit round a table and work out that there are X number of potential voters, maybe concentrated in certain areas (eg the "red wall" or the "shires") and come up with something they think will appeal to them.

The "grey vote" is a powerful group because there are so many of them and the vast majority vote Conservative. My guess is that they can afford to lose a few of them in the short term, but will come up with something to get them back nearer the election.

These days, it's not just about finance, but values as well. Political parties know from focus groups about the attitudes of various groups to issues such as immigration, equality, etc etc. The Conservatives have been especially keen to stir up divisions and bring "wokeness" to the fore because they understand prejudices of swing voters very well.

those directors who pay the minimum salary and take the rest in dividends and those whose income derives from investments.

The tax on dividend income has been increased (was it by 1.5%?). Perhaps this has caused some revulsion, too.

Good on you Dilly Perhaps your friends will change their minds too.

growstuff

Hmmm! It's interesting that the catalyst for the fall in popularity seems to be the breaking of the promise on the triple lock and the realisation of some pensioners that the will have to pay NICs.

In other words, Johnson has upset his core voters, who don't seem to have cared much about all the other havoc and suffering to others or the country he has caused. They don't care much about big picture issues such as democracy or values such as transparency and honesty, which are labelled as issues for the "liberal elite".

It would be quite easy for him to buy back that support with some kind of sweeteners targeted at them. It's what happens when politics is organised round particular demographics - the "grey vote", "northern working class" or whatever. My guess would be that some policy wonks have already set out a timetable for when they want the next GE to be and will announce some big bribes a few months before it happens.

What reason do you have for your comments about pensioners and the grey vote. NIC is to be paid by those pensioners who are still working past retirement age. From what I've read, most of them who are earning above the lower level are not objecting to paying the contributions.

The objections are because of the many people who won't be paying NIC - landlords, those directors who pay the minimum salary and take the rest in dividends and those whose income derives from investments. There are many people out there who trade on the stock markets and earn a fortune but who are not paying NIC.

I like your urn of phrase Pippa! Never ready. All I can say is we had better be ready because I think the worst may be yet to come. Sorry to be negative folks

It's been a "Never Ready" government, led by a "Never Ready" Prime Minister. Why would anyone want us to continue hurtling from chaos to crumbling economy?

NfkDumpling

That may have been his ambition at the start Lucca - but then Brexit hasn't gone the way he thought it would and Covid happened. And look what happened to Thatcher. Better to go out on a high

He's not on a high, though, is he?

Made a mess of Brexit, made a mess of covid, broke manifesto promises; everything he touches turns to dross...

Odious man. I was a sucker for his blustering charm, but have long since wised up. I cannot fathom anyone who voted for him who stands by their vote (most of my friends) as he and his government are a government of broken promises, lies, mishandling, racism & classism and sleaze. Disgraceful. There I go have worked myself up again.

That may have been his ambition at the start Lucca - but then Brexit hasn't gone the way he thought it would and Covid happened. And look what happened to Thatcher. Better to go out on a high

The first recent poll I noted was carried out between the 6th and 8th of September which, as Maizie noted was when the Conservatives trailed and announced increases in National Insurance and other taxes.

The outcome of the poll showed a decrease of 54 seats for the Conservatives and an increase of 41 for Labour.

In the second one I flagged, the voting intentions shown gave 38% to both the larger parties.

NfkDumpling

After the time Boris has had in his comparatively short time in power, I very much doubt he'll be wanting to stand in the next election anyway. He's more than made his mark and place in history, he can move on to something less stressful.

It amazes me why anyone stands for election. They usually seem to have plenty of money and be looking at some way of achieving a bit of fame and power. They may start off with the right intentions but it doesn't last!

Pretty sure I read in the times (Sunday?) that he wants to beat Thatchers number of years as PM.

Well, he’s just lost his mother, so sympathy for the man, no doubt having to put that aside and just keep carrying on.

Polls probably are unreliable. However, voters themselves are fickle.

I think polls are unreliable. They question to manipulate to get the answer they want. Regards voting? None of the present selection!

MaizieD

^he can move on to something less stressful.^

Oooh, I don't know, Nfk, I think he's found himself the perfect gaff. Party donors falling over themselves to pay for everything for him. free luxury decorating, free food, free holidays, free chauffeured transport, free air travel, prospect of a free mini cruise ship, free weekend country house, lots of dressing up in hi vis vest opportunities, everyone kow towing to him, no chance of being sacked for lying. It might not be King of the World, but it's not bad for an idle freeloading old Etonian...

I think he'll hang on in there as long as he can.

.... every PM hangs on in there as long as they can, and they all enjoy the freebies that come their way.?
That being said, whoever is in that position lives a stressed sort of lifestyle.

Polls are unreliable beasts, as we all know, but the government won’t like being so close to the numbers of Labour.There are a few years to go yet though to a GE and anything can happen.

Hmmm! It's interesting that the catalyst for the fall in popularity seems to be the breaking of the promise on the triple lock and the realisation of some pensioners that the will have to pay NICs.

In other words, Johnson has upset his core voters, who don't seem to have cared much about all the other havoc and suffering to others or the country he has caused. They don't care much about big picture issues such as democracy or values such as transparency and honesty, which are labelled as issues for the "liberal elite".

It would be quite easy for him to buy back that support with some kind of sweeteners targeted at them. It's what happens when politics is organised round particular demographics - the "grey vote", "northern working class" or whatever. My guess would be that some policy wonks have already set out a timetable for when they want the next GE to be and will announce some big bribes a few months before it happens.

UK: Voting intention – 11th September 2021

Two main parties neck-and-neck Both Labour and the Conservatives are now on 38% of the vote – the first time we have not shown a Tory lead since January. The Lib Dems are on 8%, with the Greens on 6% and the SNP on 5%. This is down from a 5 point lead last week.

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest ever, a net score of -17. Just 32% now approve of the job he is doing, compared to 49% who disapprove.

[Source: Opinium via Polling Unpacked]

MRP poll shows Tories losing majority

The results of an exclusive regression poll of over 10k Britons by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus for the Daily Telegraph, suggests the Conservatives would lose their majority if there were an imminent election.

[Polling Unpacked]

GillT57

I still think that Max Hastings got it right when he said that Johnson fancied the idea of being PM and the idea of having been PM, it was the bit in between that was the challenge.

I find it rather amusing, in a black sort of way, that he should be having such a terrible time of it...

I still think that Max Hastings got it right when he said that Johnson fancied the idea of being PM and the idea of having been PM, it was the bit in between that was the challenge.

Zoejory

I would have thought that polls have had their day, rather than turned. They seem to get things spectacularly wrong.

What's the point of them?

I find them interesting. Why join the discussion if you don't think they have any use? I don't mean you shouldn't just wonder why you would.

he can move on to something less stressful.

Oooh, I don't know, Nfk, I think he's found himself the perfect gaff. Party donors falling over themselves to pay for everything for him. free luxury decorating, free food, free holidays, free chauffeured transport, free air travel, prospect of a free mini cruise ship, free weekend country house, lots of dressing up in hi vis vest opportunities, everyone kow towing to him, no chance of being sacked for lying. It might not be King of the World, but it's not bad for an idle freeloading old Etonian...

I think he'll hang on in there as long as he can.

After the time Boris has had in his comparatively short time in power, I very much doubt he'll be wanting to stand in the next election anyway. He's more than made his mark and place in history, he can move on to something less stressful.

It amazes me why anyone stands for election. They usually seem to have plenty of money and be looking at some way of achieving a bit of fame and power. They may start off with the right intentions but it doesn't last!