Voting intentions.

No real surprises there then

The fortnightly Opinium poll has been published overnght with some bad news for the PM. His latest approval ratings which are featured in the chart above. As can be seen the PM now has a disapproval rating of 49 with an approval rating of 32%.

As it seems we have government by Conservative voter approval rather than by previous manifesto promises and promises of "leveling up" perhaps Mr Johnson should be revising his wish, quoted in The Times that he wanted to be Prime Minister for another 10 years.

PippaZ, interesting - the (understandable) approval blip at the start of the pandemic - then follows a pretty constant lead of disapproval of his efforts as PM. I find him an embarrassment, frankly.

Is today the day the polls turned? Polls taken around or since the government’s tax rises have showed the Conservatives’ lead falling back, or, in the case of YouGov, being overhauled entirely.

Does it matter? The turn in polls in the past has led to lost elections here and in other countries in the past. Could this be the moment?

I would have thought that polls have had their day, rather than turned. They seem to get things spectacularly wrong.

What's the point of them?

I too find him an embarrassment, but think his time is running out. He is unable to keep covering his lies, ineptitude, laziness and corruption much longer, and no amount of blustering on about covid vaccine success can cover his serious failings as a politician and leader. My opinion on his failings as a friend, father, employee, partner are well known, but are irrelevant on this thread. I am dreading the summit in Glasgow when we will once again have the humiliation of this blustering, scruffy man waffling on. Frankly, I wouldn't believe him if he told me today was Monday, which is a sad state of affairs, he must be telling the truth some of the time.

I remember an episode of Yes Minister when Sir Humphrey demonstrated that you could get your required pole result by the way you phrased the questions.

Santana

I remember an episode of Yes Minister when Sir Humphrey demonstrated that you could get your required pole result by the way you phrased the questions.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GSKwf4AIlI

After the time Boris has had in his comparatively short time in power, I very much doubt he'll be wanting to stand in the next election anyway. He's more than made his mark and place in history, he can move on to something less stressful.

It amazes me why anyone stands for election. They usually seem to have plenty of money and be looking at some way of achieving a bit of fame and power. They may start off with the right intentions but it doesn't last!

he can move on to something less stressful.

Oooh, I don't know, Nfk, I think he's found himself the perfect gaff. Party donors falling over themselves to pay for everything for him. free luxury decorating, free food, free holidays, free chauffeured transport, free air travel, prospect of a free mini cruise ship, free weekend country house, lots of dressing up in hi vis vest opportunities, everyone kow towing to him, no chance of being sacked for lying. It might not be King of the World, but it's not bad for an idle freeloading old Etonian...

I think he'll hang on in there as long as he can.

Zoejory

I would have thought that polls have had their day, rather than turned. They seem to get things spectacularly wrong.

What's the point of them?

I find them interesting. Why join the discussion if you don't think they have any use? I don't mean you shouldn't just wonder why you would.

I still think that Max Hastings got it right when he said that Johnson fancied the idea of being PM and the idea of having been PM, it was the bit in between that was the challenge.

GillT57

I still think that Max Hastings got it right when he said that Johnson fancied the idea of being PM and the idea of having been PM, it was the bit in between that was the challenge.

I find it rather amusing, in a black sort of way, that he should be having such a terrible time of it...

MRP poll shows Tories losing majority

The results of an exclusive regression poll of over 10k Britons by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus for the Daily Telegraph, suggests the Conservatives would lose their majority if there were an imminent election.

[Polling Unpacked]

UK: Voting intention – 11th September 2021

Two main parties neck-and-neck Both Labour and the Conservatives are now on 38% of the vote – the first time we have not shown a Tory lead since January. The Lib Dems are on 8%, with the Greens on 6% and the SNP on 5%. This is down from a 5 point lead last week.

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest ever, a net score of -17. Just 32% now approve of the job he is doing, compared to 49% who disapprove.

[Source: Opinium via Polling Unpacked]

Hmmm! It's interesting that the catalyst for the fall in popularity seems to be the breaking of the promise on the triple lock and the realisation of some pensioners that the will have to pay NICs.

In other words, Johnson has upset his core voters, who don't seem to have cared much about all the other havoc and suffering to others or the country he has caused. They don't care much about big picture issues such as democracy or values such as transparency and honesty, which are labelled as issues for the "liberal elite".

It would be quite easy for him to buy back that support with some kind of sweeteners targeted at them. It's what happens when politics is organised round particular demographics - the "grey vote", "northern working class" or whatever. My guess would be that some policy wonks have already set out a timetable for when they want the next GE to be and will announce some big bribes a few months before it happens.

MaizieD

^he can move on to something less stressful.^

Oooh, I don't know, Nfk, I think he's found himself the perfect gaff. Party donors falling over themselves to pay for everything for him. free luxury decorating, free food, free holidays, free chauffeured transport, free air travel, prospect of a free mini cruise ship, free weekend country house, lots of dressing up in hi vis vest opportunities, everyone kow towing to him, no chance of being sacked for lying. It might not be King of the World, but it's not bad for an idle freeloading old Etonian...

I think he'll hang on in there as long as he can.

.... every PM hangs on in there as long as they can, and they all enjoy the freebies that come their way.?
That being said, whoever is in that position lives a stressed sort of lifestyle.

Polls are unreliable beasts, as we all know, but the government won’t like being so close to the numbers of Labour.There are a few years to go yet though to a GE and anything can happen.

I think polls are unreliable. They question to manipulate to get the answer they want. Regards voting? None of the present selection!

Polls probably are unreliable. However, voters themselves are fickle.

Well, he’s just lost his mother, so sympathy for the man, no doubt having to put that aside and just keep carrying on.

NfkDumpling

After the time Boris has had in his comparatively short time in power, I very much doubt he'll be wanting to stand in the next election anyway. He's more than made his mark and place in history, he can move on to something less stressful.

It amazes me why anyone stands for election. They usually seem to have plenty of money and be looking at some way of achieving a bit of fame and power. They may start off with the right intentions but it doesn't last!

Pretty sure I read in the times (Sunday?) that he wants to beat Thatchers number of years as PM.

The first recent poll I noted was carried out between the 6th and 8th of September which, as Maizie noted was when the Conservatives trailed and announced increases in National Insurance and other taxes.

The outcome of the poll showed a decrease of 54 seats for the Conservatives and an increase of 41 for Labour.

In the second one I flagged, the voting intentions shown gave 38% to both the larger parties.

That may have been his ambition at the start Lucca - but then Brexit hasn't gone the way he thought it would and Covid happened. And look what happened to Thatcher. Better to go out on a high

Odious man. I was a sucker for his blustering charm, but have long since wised up. I cannot fathom anyone who voted for him who stands by their vote (most of my friends) as he and his government are a government of broken promises, lies, mishandling, racism & classism and sleaze. Disgraceful. There I go have worked myself up again.