Speaking the truth about brexit

growstuff

Japan's debt is 266% of GDP. I've never read that Japan is about to go bankrupt and collapse.

Japan, like the UK, has a sovereign currency. So it can run big deficits. So could we if we were minded to.

The euro causes problems for some EU countries because it removes their control over the currency and Germany, with its strong economy expects the poorer countries to follow its economic model (tiny deficits or even surpluses). I'm glad we never joined the euro (and we wouldn't have had to even if we'd remained in the EU)

growstuff

Japan's debt is 266% of GDP. I've never read that Japan is about to go bankrupt and collapse.

When the Tories were electioneering back in 2009 they started mentioning the UK's deficit as though it was something very, very bad. I remember at the time wondering why they were talking about it so much when the the USA and Japan had higher deficits. The other countries that had higher deficits than the UK were China, Germany and France.

As regards the state of Greece, sure that is partly self inflicted. As I recall they spent much of the money from the EU on lowering the pension age of state employees.

I am not aware that any of those countries is bankrupt but perhaps I've been sleeping for the past 13 years.

volver

^Maybe in the hope that such misinformation gets stopped in its tracks and doesn't enter the mainstream as the truth.^

This. Definitely this.

This is the main reason why I post on some threads. By ignoring the irredeemable nonsense and seriously malicious information I feel as if I am endorsing it, so feel obliged to post in an often pointless attempt to stop some of the worst of it being taken as truth. Blinking hard work though as the source seems to be endless

Japans economy is in a terrible state, the Yen has lost half its value against the US Dollar in the last 10 yrs, many years of QE has crippled the currency.

Here is one comment

“Negative Effects of Debt, QE and QQE
Japan's enormous public debts are a sore spot for investors. In a research report, hedge fund manager Ray Dalio argued Japan's real debt burden, including private debts, relative to its GDP was around 449%, ranked 19 out of the 20 countries he measured. Huge debt servicing costs directly reduce the potential for savings or investment, limiting future economic growth and current returns.”

Apparently we can expect to hear very little from the EU in the coming days as Johnson tries to stoke the fires and burn the NI protocol.

A couple or so of reasons.

The EU seem to think that they have gone as far as they intend to go. Initially they had hoped that Truss would be willing to negotiate, but she has simply snipped from the sidelines and refused to negotiate. The EU said that there is no discernible negotiator or mediator. Trust has disappeared.

Secondly the EU are watching what is going to happen regarding the potential new leadership.

The EU is determined not to play Johnson’s game and get sucked into the drama he is attempting to create for domestic reasons.

The EU will simply start the wheels of court action in a quiet and calm way but with the steely determination that they will come down on the U.K. like a tonne of bricks. They intend there to be no emotional involvement.

The EU have decided that there is nothing more to be said.

Best for Britain

Katie59

Japans economy is in a terrible state, the Yen has lost half its value against the US Dollar in the last 10 yrs, many years of QE has crippled the currency.

Here is one comment

“Negative Effects of Debt, QE and QQE
Japan's enormous public debts are a sore spot for investors. In a research report, hedge fund manager Ray Dalio argued Japan's real debt burden, including private debts, relative to its GDP was around 449%, ranked 19 out of the 20 countries he measured. Huge debt servicing costs directly reduce the potential for savings or investment, limiting future economic growth and current returns.”

Like to cite your sources, Katie59?

Poor old investors, eh? Unable to leach money out of the Japanese economy...

Surprisingly enough, 'investors' aren't the most important people in an economy...

Exactly! The vast majority of people in Japan aren't investors, nor is economic growth necessarily a condition for the standard of living of a population. The important thing is that the Japanese are still going about their daily lives and the country has not "gone bankrupt".

growstuff

Exactly! The vast majority of people in Japan aren't investors, nor is economic growth necessarily a condition for the standard of living of a population. The important thing is that the Japanese are still going about their daily lives and the country has not "gone bankrupt".

So you think halving the value of the currency is acceptable. Sterling has fallen from 1.70 to 1.20 against the US$ in a decade is that good.

Japan is now “post industrial” most products are now manufactured elsewhere, their companies have factories worldwide including the UK. The government has been printing money for decades to keep the domestic economy going.

Too much QE or borrowing does devalue the currency which increases the cost of imports, the UK Brexit plan was to take advantage of cheaper imports, to do that we want a strong not weak currency. The government tries to control what happens internally, we cannot divorce ourselves from international finance, our own pension funds invest internationally to make a profit to pay us, if they depended only on UK investments pensioners would be far worse off.

Yes, I read it and more and also a great deal of time weighing up the pros and cons of leaving the EU. Yes, there were lies, from both sides of the campaign. I respect the views of friends and family who voted to remain but I voted to leave. Nobody promised it was going to be easy but, as the saying goes, sometimes things that are worth having don't come easily.
There are many reasons why people voted leave. I am tired of remainers perpetuating the myth that everything was wonderful when we were part of the EU and their simplistic view that all leavers are racist and uneducated.

Isn't it time that those who voted to remain, respected the views of people who voted to leave and to accept the results of a democratic vote?

Katie59

growstuff

Exactly! The vast majority of people in Japan aren't investors, nor is economic growth necessarily a condition for the standard of living of a population. The important thing is that the Japanese are still going about their daily lives and the country has not "gone bankrupt".

So you think halving the value of the currency is acceptable. Sterling has fallen from 1.70 to 1.20 against the US$ in a decade is that good.

Japan is now “post industrial” most products are now manufactured elsewhere, their companies have factories worldwide including the UK. The government has been printing money for decades to keep the domestic economy going.

Too much QE or borrowing does devalue the currency which increases the cost of imports, the UK Brexit plan was to take advantage of cheaper imports, to do that we want a strong not weak currency. The government tries to control what happens internally, we cannot divorce ourselves from international finance, our own pension funds invest internationally to make a profit to pay us, if they depended only on UK investments pensioners would be far worse off.

But Japan hasn't gone "bankrupt". Japanese still lead normal lives. Ultimately, what is reported in the pages of the FT (or elsewhere) doesn't have a huge affect because Japan has a sovereign currency, just as the UK does. Other factors have a more direct effect on people's wealth and quality of life.

The UK's national debt as a ratio of GDP was 237% in 1816. The country didn't go bankrupt - in fact, it went on to prosper and become one of the richest and most powerful countries on earth. It was 238% in 1947 - again, the country didn't go bankrupt.

The risk from high debt ratios comes from interest payments, which are historically low. The "value" of a currency against other currencies is, as I'm sure you know, a two-edged sword. Devaluing a currency can give exports a boost. Don't forget that public debt = private assets. Individuals (and pension funds, etc) are profiting from public debt.

www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/debt_history

Japan is now “post industrial” most products are now manufactured elsewhere, their companies have factories worldwide including the UK.

Is that such a bad thing for the Japanese? They're still profiting from the companies they own. Moreover, they provide work for UK (and other) workers in countries which can't afford to (or won't) invest.

Janet12

Yes, I read it and more and also a great deal of time weighing up the pros and cons of leaving the EU. Yes, there were lies, from both sides of the campaign. I respect the views of friends and family who voted to remain but I voted to leave. Nobody promised it was going to be easy but, as the saying goes, sometimes things that are worth having don't come easily.
There are many reasons why people voted leave. I am tired of remainers perpetuating the myth that everything was wonderful when we were part of the EU and their simplistic view that all leavers are racist and uneducated.

Isn't it time that those who voted to remain, respected the views of people who voted to leave and to accept the results of a democratic vote?

I don't know one single person who claimed that everything was wonderful about the EU. I'm tired of leavers claiming that! What they did was balance up the pros and cons and decided the argument to leave wasn't strong and voted to maintain the status quo, while still supporting efforts for a better deal from within.

It is a fact that those who voted to leave had, on average, lower educational qualifications and were older than those who voted to remain. If you want to see a fact as a criticism, that's your business. It's also a fact that there was dog whistle racism (and even blatant racism) amongst some of those who voted to leave.

I'm also tired of people bandying around words like "democratic" without understanding what it means. FWIW almost half of those who voted wanted to remain, so if you put all votes into a gigantic melting pot, you'd end up with something very far removed from the "hard Brexit" which some people now advocate.

the UK Brexit plan was to take advantage of cheaper imports

Do you honestly think there was a "Brexit plan"?

I would bet anything that if you'd asked people in 2016 why they were voting to leave, the vast majority wouldn't have come up with cheaper imports as a reason.

PS. Anybody who really did think that seriously needs their bumps feeling!

growstuff

Janet12

Yes, I read it and more and also a great deal of time weighing up the pros and cons of leaving the EU. Yes, there were lies, from both sides of the campaign. I respect the views of friends and family who voted to remain but I voted to leave. Nobody promised it was going to be easy but, as the saying goes, sometimes things that are worth having don't come easily.
There are many reasons why people voted leave. I am tired of remainers perpetuating the myth that everything was wonderful when we were part of the EU and their simplistic view that all leavers are racist and uneducated.

Isn't it time that those who voted to remain, respected the views of people who voted to leave and to accept the results of a democratic vote?

I don't know one single person who claimed that everything was wonderful about the EU. I'm tired of leavers claiming that! What they did was balance up the pros and cons and decided the argument to leave wasn't strong and voted to maintain the status quo, while still supporting efforts for a better deal from within.

It is a fact that those who voted to leave had, on average, lower educational qualifications and were older than those who voted to remain. If you want to see a fact as a criticism, that's your business. It's also a fact that there was dog whistle racism (and even blatant racism) amongst some of those who voted to leave.

I'm also tired of people bandying around words like "democratic" without understanding what it means. FWIW almost half of those who voted wanted to remain, so if you put all votes into a gigantic melting pot, you'd end up with something very far removed from the "hard Brexit" which some people now advocate.

Additionally, Janet22, all the prominent Leave campaigners promised it would be easy. EU and the rest of the world, countries flocking to do brilliant trade deals with us, It'd all be over by tea time they day after we'd voted to leave. If you didn't notice that you must have been completely cut off from all contact with the media...

growstuff

*the UK Brexit plan was to take advantage of cheaper imports*

Do you honestly think there was a "Brexit plan"?

I would bet anything that if you'd asked people in 2016 why they were voting to leave, the vast majority wouldn't have come up with cheaper imports as a reason.

The plan - such as it was or is, that we make more beneficial trade deals outside the EU, freed from EU regulations and stopping cheap labour from overseas.

Or what did you think the plan was.

Katie59

growstuff

Exactly! The vast majority of people in Japan aren't investors, nor is economic growth necessarily a condition for the standard of living of a population. The important thing is that the Japanese are still going about their daily lives and the country has not "gone bankrupt".

So you think halving the value of the currency is acceptable. Sterling has fallen from 1.70 to 1.20 against the US$ in a decade is that good.

Japan is now “post industrial” most products are now manufactured elsewhere, their companies have factories worldwide including the UK. The government has been printing money for decades to keep the domestic economy going.

Too much QE or borrowing does devalue the currency which increases the cost of imports, the UK Brexit plan was to take advantage of cheaper imports, to do that we want a strong not weak currency. The government tries to control what happens internally, we cannot divorce ourselves from international finance, our own pension funds invest internationally to make a profit to pay us, if they depended only on UK investments pensioners would be far worse off.

The above is a direct quote from Investopedia. It should be marked as a quote, not passed-off as your own.

Japan is the canary in this coal-mine. In the 1980s its booming economy struck fear in the world. After the bubble burst in the 1990s, public debt ballooned and deflation set in. Many in the West said Japan’s debt was unsustainable and the Bank of Japan (boj) should do more to boost inflation. In 2013 the boj’s governor, Kuroda Haruhiko, embarked on dramatic monetary easing. The debt hovered around 230% of gdp. A strange thing ensued: no fiscal crisis struck, nor did inflation come near the 2% target. “The standard textbook on macroeconomics needs an additional few chapters—it doesn’t capture the problems Japan faced,” says Shirakawa Masaaki, Mr Kuroda’s predecessor."

...

Debt has not turned out to be such a problem. “What we thought used to be fiscal limits are no longer fiscal limits,” argues Adam Posen, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (piie) think-tank. “[Japan] has forced people to confront reality: the interest rate can stay below the growth rate for very long periods.” The public debt has been above 100% of gdp for almost 25 years without causing a crisis.

[Source: Economist]

Exactly DaisyAnne. Japan has turned out to be a conundrum and has turned macro-economic thinking on its head.

Katie59

growstuff

the UK Brexit plan was to take advantage of cheaper imports

Do you honestly think there was a "Brexit plan"?

I would bet anything that if you'd asked people in 2016 why they were voting to leave, the vast majority wouldn't have come up with cheaper imports as a reason.

The plan - such as it was or is, that we make more beneficial trade deals outside the EU, freed from EU regulations and stopping cheap labour from overseas.

Or what did you think the plan was.

I have absolutely no idea what the plan was! If there had been one, I might even have considered if Brexit had any advantages. What I saw were various whingers, who wanted something for themselves and believed Brexit would deliver it. The main groups couldn't even decide amongst themselves what they wanted, which is why I decided to stick with the imperfect devil I knew.

My decision to vote remain was for a number of reasons.

I did/do think that it’s democracy has a credibility gap, but is not as bad as the detractors like to make out.

I also think that countries like Germany, France and certainly the U.K. when a member had excessive influence in decisions and the construction of the rules.

However, what made me vote remain, was primarily because I could see the absolute advantage business has. It has access to the biggest customer base in the world that allows free movement of supply, capital and people. In fact a capitalist paradise?. Membership raised our GDP year on year. That is why the political left like Tony Benn always rejected the EU.

However, I think many of the issues were/are mitigated by the protection of employees rights, the standards of supply and the freedom of movement, allowing people pursue their chosen career and education in any country.

Sovereignty has never been an issue - that is a myth and nonsense put out by the fraudulent leave group.

Likewise immigration. The U.K. always had choices to control the level of people entering the country who had no employment but failed to get to grips with it. That was a political choice, nothing to do with our membership of the EU.

Question: has brexit worked out for the fisherman the way they thought it would? Is anyone openly happy about it?

Katie59

growstuff

the UK Brexit plan was to take advantage of cheaper imports

Do you honestly think there was a "Brexit plan"?

I would bet anything that if you'd asked people in 2016 why they were voting to leave, the vast majority wouldn't have come up with cheaper imports as a reason.

The plan - such as it was or is, that we make more beneficial trade deals outside the EU, freed from EU regulations and stopping cheap labour from overseas.

Or what did you think the plan was.

I don't think there was a plan, was there? That was just more of the lies that the Leave campaign spread around. Pie in the sky with a free unicorn thrown in for good measure.

happycatholicwife1

Question: has brexit worked out for the fisherman the way they thought it would? Is anyone openly happy about it?

Apologies for posting again but in case you missed it, here are the fishermen (subtitles are available)

www.arte.tv/fr/videos/104796-002-A/arte-regards-brexit-la-frustration-des-pecheurs-britanniques/

Of course this is a FR/DE channel so someone will be along in a moment to tell you to ignore it.

The fishermen were misled by the lies just like the rest of us, they believed that the UK would get preferential treatment over EU members - cherry picking.

It was never going to happen and didn’t