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The U.K. 2022

(553 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Wed 10-Aug-22 09:52:05

If you have made the mistake of following the Tory leadership election then you will, presuming you suspended your disbelief, now know that we are facing a bright future under Liz Truss, where growth, prosperity, light touch regulation, low tax and strong international trade will deliver us all we have ever aspired to.

In fact, more than that, the climate crisis will, under her rule, be so insignificant it can be ignored; the rule of law will no longer be required; every town, village and hamlet will be a freeport making its own regulations and laws under the benign guidance of a company given the task of doing so; and the land will flow with milk and honey.

None of this is true, of course.

This morning we have news of drought and the risk of hose pipe bans and even outright water shortages.

There is also a warning of power cust to come this winter as electricity supply will not meet demand.

Avanti has just axed two-thirds of its train services on the West Coast mainline.

Six million people are waiting for NHS treatment.

Half the UK's households do not know how they will pay their fuel bills when the average energy price increases to £4,200pa this winter. The likelihood that many will simply be unable to pay is high.

As a consequence, the rest of the economy is under severe threat of recession.

A banking crisis is possible as rents go unpaid, landlords fail to service their debts, joining those mortgage holders who will be in the same boat.

Schools and hospitals face impossible choices due to their increasing energy costs this winter.

Hardly talked about, but something I fear greatly is the risk that many care homes - which have to be warm - will simply be unable to afford to carry on trading this winter as those they p[provide for cannot pay increased bills, creating a massive care crisis.

It is actually quite hard to think of anything that is working well in the UK now, and which is not at risk of failure quite soon.

The Tory leadership election is taking place in some fantasy space created by a political party wholly out of touch with reality. The difficulty is that one of those taking part - and making the absurd promises on offer to the Tory party faithful, will be governing us soon. There is little sign that they will embrace reality then.

We are in deep, deep trouble.

Richard Murphy
10/08/22

growstuff Fri 12-Aug-22 20:17:43

rosie1959

Just about Growstuff with a little help from Mastercard and our parents
Just had to let to credit roll up and sort it out later I had one card that was still in use the rest had been frozen. All the best bits about having your own Company times get tough and you have to paddle your own Canoe

Yes, I know quite a bit about having your own company. Most of my family, including my husband at the time, had companies.

Have you opened your eyes recently? Even my hairdresser, who has been in business in this town for 30 years, doubts if he will survive winter.

Blinko Fri 12-Aug-22 20:25:44

varian

Blinko

I'm being dim, I know, but - regarding the energy crisis, why can't the price cap remain as is - or raised but not to the levels we're hearing about - and HMG pick up the shortfall? Why isn't this even being put as an option?

Someone will have the answer on here, I'm sure.

LIbDem leader Ed Davey has already suggested this.

Thanks, varian. It seems the most equitable and least complicated solution to me. I guess it must potentially cost squillions, otherwise surely it would be on the table.

rosie1959 Fri 12-Aug-22 20:26:41

That's a bit condescending Growstuff you asked when times were bad before I gave an answer.
No doubting things are bad again and the future is uncertain

Dinahmo Fri 12-Aug-22 22:07:50

rosie1959

growstuff

rosie1959

2007 - 2010 were not exactly rosy

I don't remember inflation, shortages or attacks on democratic systems like we have now.

No it was at that time the most serious crisis to hit the global economy since the Great Depression
I remember it all to well nearly left us bankrupt

Were you left bankrupt? Were your friends and neighbours? I wasn't and neither were any of my friends and acquaintances.

Knowing something of the system I was fully aware that the govt, any govt would not let the banks fail. There would have been a riot.

Dinahmo Fri 12-Aug-22 22:12:30

Having dealt with many small companies over the years, the reason that they often fail is the greed of shareholders/directors. Many, many people describe themselves as a company director and take out money s soon as it starts to roll in.

rosie1959 Fri 12-Aug-22 22:15:07

No Dinahmo recovered very well thanks to my DH hard work and determination

Optomistic1 Sat 13-Aug-22 01:56:57

I’ve read that EDF in France is losing millions of € every day due to the fixed price so the French govt is bailing them out which will no doubt mean higher taxes to come for the French… so let’s not think it’s any better in France

Mamie Sat 13-Aug-22 05:08:59

EDF is 82% is owned by the French government and they are re-nationalising the rest. No indication of taxes going up at the moment. You have to remember that our electricity comes from French nuclear power stations and renewables.

vegansrock Sat 13-Aug-22 05:49:16

EDF make a profit- in the U.K. So that’s alright then.
Please don’t trot out “we survived WW2” - millions didn’t survive.

Mamie Sat 13-Aug-22 06:15:37

There is no doubt that petrol / diesel costs will have a severe impact, particularly on rural France and that drought and fires will raise food prices. The basic difference is that the country's assets have not been sold off for private profit in the same way as the UK. Whatever government is in charge France is still basically a socialist country. The values of the republic are explicit in everyday life.

Aveline Sat 13-Aug-22 07:24:49

veganrock of course many were killed in the war. I was talking about the dire economic situation that, somehow, we got through. There are and always will be difficult times. It's the nature of humanity.
Meanwhile, I'm counting my current blessings such as they are and remembering the three day weeks and intermittent power cuts. We're not back to those days (yet!)

MaizieD Sat 13-Aug-22 09:18:51

Aveline

veganrock of course many were killed in the war. I was talking about the dire economic situation that, somehow, we got through. There are and always will be difficult times. It's the nature of humanity.
Meanwhile, I'm counting my current blessings such as they are and remembering the three day weeks and intermittent power cuts. We're not back to those days (yet!)

We didn't really 'get through' post WWII. Yes, the government initially invested money in the domestic economy with its nationalisation programme, but the US postwar loan was largely spent in trying to maintain our overseas possessions, policing the postwar settlements and our 'great power' status, rather than investing it in rebuilding and modernising our industry and infrastructure. The loss of our empire, resulting in shrinking export markets and sources of cheap raw materials turned the UK into an economic basket case, as we all know. We didn't get the 'sick man of Europe' label for no reason. Only joining the European Community saved us.

Of course, we got through' as individuals and accepted a standard of living much lower than what would be accepted today, but we did it because we knew no better and because people cope.

But, unless there is major government intervention over energy prices now I think that what is coming to us is worse than anything we have ever experienced. If some 50% of the population is going to struggle or fall into poverty because of high energy bills what do you think is going to happen to businesses, schools, hospitals etc that don't have an energy price cap? How are they going to stay afloat? How many will fold, putting people out of work and removing goods and services we now take for granted? What about losing your local hairdresser or fish and chip shop? Or the local 'open all hours' store? ?

Oldnproud Sat 13-Aug-22 09:57:02

" But, unless there is major government intervention over energy prices now I think that what is coming to us is worse than anything we have ever experienced. If some 50% of the population is going to struggle or fall into poverty because of high energy bills what do you think is going to happen to businesses, schools, hospitals etc thatdon'thave an energy price cap? How are they going to stay afloat? How many will fold, putting people out of work and removing goods and services we now take for granted? What about losing your local hairdresser or fish and chip shop? Or the local 'open all hours' store? "

MaizieD, your last paragraph is the bit that I really dont think many people have grasped yet - about the effect this is going to have on businesses, and just how devastating that is going to be for all of us.
They are going to face a double-whammy, hit both by the astronomical energy bills they face, and on top of that, the loss of sales as millions have to tighten their belts.
Jobs will go in large numbers, and just having one might be a luxury, never mind the two jobs that some seem to think people should be doing when times get tough!

To misquote Bachman Turner Overdrive, we ain't seen nothing yet. sad

Prentice Sat 13-Aug-22 09:57:23

Aveline

veganrock of course many were killed in the war. I was talking about the dire economic situation that, somehow, we got through. There are and always will be difficult times. It's the nature of humanity.
Meanwhile, I'm counting my current blessings such as they are and remembering the three day weeks and intermittent power cuts. We're not back to those days (yet!)

A very good comment.
hopefully it will not come to that, we are going through a bad patch globally I believe, with so many things beyond our control.
of the things that can be controlled I hope the government will continue to offer help.I have read that some companies are offering junior employees a one off bonus amount to help with energy costs.

Whitewavemark2 Sat 13-Aug-22 10:00:39

vegansrock

EDF make a profit- in the U.K. So that’s alright then.
Please don’t trot out “we survived WW2” - millions didn’t survive.

They registered a loss - it all goes to France, so the U.K. doesn’t benefit at all.

Fleurpepper Sat 13-Aug-22 23:15:22

Aveline

That's not my point. My point is that somehow we always pull through! We've had worse times before.

If you are surrounded by fire - and you dance around, with a big positive smile on your face- that does not make you 'positive' it makes you 'deluded and mad'.

Dinahmo Sat 13-Aug-22 23:33:35

rosie1959

2007 - 2010 were not exactly rosy

I can't think of anything that was "unrosy".

In 2007 we bought a plot of land in France and sold our main house in Suffolk. I used part of the proceeds for a deposit on a small house and took out a buy to let mortgage with Northern Rock. The rest of the proceeds went into Northern Rock. When the crash came I knew that the govt would bail out the bank, one way or another. My DH didn't accept this and, having tried online banking on the Friday evening and not managed to get through, I was on my computer at 7h55, managed to get through and transferred all our funds. A large sum.

For me it was not a problem, nor was it for most people that I know. Life carried on as normal.

Grantanow Sat 13-Aug-22 23:59:39

And now we hear Truss is going to take the £400 discount on energy bills away from 'high earners'. No definition of a high earner so it could include lots of middle class people likely to find a £5,000 bill next year hard to handle. Is she on planet Earth?

rosie1959 Sun 14-Aug-22 00:08:33

Glad it wasn't a problem for you Dinahmo
We are Mortgage Brokers it caused many problems

Katie59 Sun 14-Aug-22 07:35:46

Grantanow

And now we hear Truss is going to take the £400 discount on energy bills away from 'high earners'. No definition of a high earner so it could include lots of middle class people likely to find a £5,000 bill next year hard to handle. Is she on planet Earth?

Personally I think the energy discounts, even the winter fuel payments should not go to the well off, however, they are taxed as are pensions received so a high earner will be paying 40% maybe more back.

Whitewavemark2 Sun 14-Aug-22 08:26:24

Starmer putting pressure on Tories by calling for price fuel rises to be fixed at current rate, saving families £2000 pa.

Further details tomorrow.

DaisyAnne Sun 14-Aug-22 09:02:32

Katie59

Grantanow

And now we hear Truss is going to take the £400 discount on energy bills away from 'high earners'. No definition of a high earner so it could include lots of middle class people likely to find a £5,000 bill next year hard to handle. Is she on planet Earth?

Personally I think the energy discounts, even the winter fuel payments should not go to the well off, however, they are taxed as are pensions received so a high earner will be paying 40% maybe more back.

Are they being taxed Katie? They will not affect benefits or tax credit calculations, so not being treated as income in those cases. Are they actually being treated as income for others?

rosie1959 Sun 14-Aug-22 09:22:50

Whitewavemark2

Starmer putting pressure on Tories by calling for price fuel rises to be fixed at current rate, saving families £2000 pa.

Further details tomorrow.

He must have been listening to Gordon Brown pretty sure he came up with the very same suggestion in an article in the Guardian

DaisyAnne Sun 14-Aug-22 09:31:48

He has been working with Gordon Brown Rosie. Generally, that would mean they would have discussed the outcomes of GBs work, I would have thought.

Isn't it a good thing to have good, knowledgeable people working with you if you want to run the country?

Just to warn you. Starmer has been working with others who are knowledgeable in their field too.

Grantanow Sun 14-Aug-22 09:38:01

The point about the winter fuel allowance Katie69 is that it would cost far too much to means test its distribution so it goes to all. The phrase 'high earner' might start at say £30,000 if Truss were so minded.