Who do you believe: Sunak or the IMF?

Oreo what is the point of economics?

ronib

Casdon the doubling of energy prices in Germany will take place over the coming months and I don’t think the graphs have predicted this as relating to 2022?

livingcost.org/cost/germany/united-kingdom
You are comparing apples and pears.
Electricity costs in Germany are equivalent to 29.3p per unit at the moment, in the UK they are 34p. The UK energy cap is being lifted from April, so we don’t know what we will be paying here either.

Casdon I don’t see good prospects for the German economy. The President of German Institute for Economic Research, Marcel Fratzscher expects a weak phase of economic development in Germany. The reason is that politicians and companies have overslept the energy transition and digitisation - according to the economist in an NTV interview.

Overslept as in dozy

ronib

Casdon I don’t see good prospects for the German economy. The President of German Institute for Economic Research, Marcel Fratzscher expects a weak phase of economic development in Germany. The reason is that politicians and companies have overslept the energy transition and digitisation - according to the economist in an NTV interview.

Overslept as in dozy

You may well be right for the future ronib, but using random statistics about one element of the German economy don’t prove anything, when the reality is, for now at least, Germany is performing better than the UK is in virtually all aspects of the economy.

DaisyAnne

Are you surprised other countries may go into recession foxie?

No, not at all! Quite the reverse. I think any country in Europe could go into recession.

Political bias is bound to affect whether your view of a government's management of the economy is good or bad and I agree, it suits the IMF to say this.

What political bias does the International Monetary Fund have?

I still say that the IMF, looking at the government's handling of our economy, is ab so lute ly spot on.

Perhaps other budding economists among us can explain why I'm wrong?

foxie48

DaisyAnne

Are you surprised other countries may go into recession foxie?

No, not at all! Quite the reverse. I think any country in Europe could go into recession.

It's got to be possible. I wonder why we don't just worry about how to get our country out of the mire. It seems we have enough to do here.

MaizieD the twitter crowd are into the IMF and its authenticity so interesting to broaden out and read other comments. Very on trend today.

ronib

MaizieD the twitter crowd are into the IMF and its authenticity so interesting to broaden out and read other comments. Very on trend today.

Maybe they are, ronib, but I would really like to know on what economic grounds their forecast is being disputed.

I have said why I think they are right. Can anyone tell me why they think the IMF is wrong, without accusing them of past inaccuracies or political bias?

DaisyAnne

foxie48

DaisyAnne

Are you surprised other countries may go into recession foxie?

No, not at all! Quite the reverse. I think any country in Europe could go into recession.

It's got to be possible. I wonder why we don't just worry about how to get our country out of the mire. It seems we have enough to do here.

I think it's difficult to remove the effects of global economics from the difficulties we face in the UK so although "I worry" about "our country" I think it's important to be aware of what is happening in other countries too. I feel it gives me a better perspective

I have much more faith in the IMF than I do in Sunak or any of his corrupt party.

I suggest that because the IMF offers a forecast, actual future events are unknown at the time of the forecast. Future human activity is not fully quantifiable. There is therefore a gap in knowledge.

Human behaviours are not predetermined by the writing of a report or forecast.

ronib

I suggest that because the IMF offers a forecast, actual future events are unknown at the time of the forecast. Future human activity is not fully quantifiable. There is therefore a gap in knowledge.

Human behaviours are not predetermined by the writing of a report or forecast.

Well, what is it about the state of our economy that tells you that the IMF could be wrong?

What magical event is going to prevent us going into recession?

When you're about to go out ansee dark clouds gathering in the sky do you take a raincoat or an umbrella with out you or do you just give yourself a philosophical talking to about the unpredictability of the future and go out coatless, hatless and umbrellaless?

I have to say, you must lead an interesting life not knowing what might happen in the next few hours or minutes...

MaizieD I also rely on past experiences and the IMF has not produced reliable information on the UK since 2016.

The IMF forecast for the UK is not absolutely not for the next few hours.
Even weather forecasts can be misleading.

Yes I guess my life is pretty interesting.

ronib

MaizieD I also rely on past experiences and the IMF has not produced reliable information on the UK since 2016.

The IMF forecast for the UK is not absolutely not for the next few hours.
Even weather forecasts can be misleading.

Yes I guess my life is pretty interesting.

So, past experience of austerity and a longer period of recovery than we could have had means absolutely nothing?

Do you have any concept at all of the significance and effects of govt economic decision making? No, just disbelief in the IMF to guide you 😱

MaizieD I have even more disbelief in the IMF having read
Oxfam International 19 April 2022
IMF must abandon demands for austerity as cost of living crisis drives up hunger and poverty worldwide.
Well worth a read.

Suspicious bunch of bureaucrats in the IMF !
I think economics needs to widen its scope for it to have any credibility as an academic discipline.

ronib

MaizieD I have even more disbelief in the IMF having read
Oxfam International 19 April 2022
IMF must abandon demands for austerity as cost of living crisis drives up hunger and poverty worldwide.
Well worth a read.

Suspicious bunch of bureaucrats in the IMF !
I think economics needs to widen its scope for it to have any credibility as an academic discipline.

It doesn’t really matter wether IMF is right or wrong, it’s a comparison between different economies, the outlook for the UK is not good. That pretty much agrees with Sunak’s line on the economy, it’s going to be a tough year because there are very few indicators of bright spots.

Casdon

ronib

Just to point out that energy costs will double in Germany over the coming months….and as a manufacturing nation this is bound to have a more pronounced effect than on a service economy. I don’t see any mention of that.

Energy prices still won’t be anywhere near as high in Germany as they are in the UK ronib.
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Electricity_price_statistics

Havent looked lately personally, but when I looked about 4 months ago, I was surprised to discover that German energy costs were the highest in the world. At least they were on the charts I looked at.

fancythat

Casdon

ronib

Just to point out that energy costs will double in Germany over the coming months….and as a manufacturing nation this is bound to have a more pronounced effect than on a service economy. I don’t see any mention of that.

Energy prices still won’t be anywhere near as high in Germany as they are in the UK ronib.
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Electricity_price_statistics

Havent looked lately personally, but when I looked about 4 months ago, I was surprised to discover that German energy costs were the highest in the world. At least they were on the charts I looked at.

You do understand that it's really bad form to post speculation as fact with the excuse that you can't be bothered to check? It leaves others to do the work. Just to help you here are some data:

www.statista.com/statistics/1267500/eu-monthly-wholesale-electricity-price-country/

www.energy-stats.uk/wholesale-energy-pricing/

Petera hope you have not misread my comment that electricity prices are due to double in Germany in the coming months. In the future… your charts 2021-22?

This is reliable information from someone living in Germany who is worried.

Katie59

ronib

MaizieD I have even more disbelief in the IMF having read
Oxfam International 19 April 2022
IMF must abandon demands for austerity as cost of living crisis drives up hunger and poverty worldwide.
Well worth a read.

Suspicious bunch of bureaucrats in the IMF !
I think economics needs to widen its scope for it to have any credibility as an academic discipline.

It doesn’t really matter wether IMF is right or wrong, it’s a comparison between different economies, the outlook for the UK is not good. That pretty much agrees with Sunak’s line on the economy, it’s going to be a tough year because there are very few indicators of bright spots.

I agree that, in one way, it doesn't really matter if the IMF is right or wrong, but to base one's judgement on the fact that they've been wrong about things in the past, rather than on the actual situation in the UK and the government's handling of the economy seems like pure and deliberate determination to avoid facing facts.

I find 'Sunak's line on the economy' very ironic as it is the government and the Bank of England that is making it worse than it should be. There is even talk of another inflationary interest rate rise to be announced today.

But it's clever of Sunak really, to be bent on destroying our economy but to be able gaslight the nation into believing how percipient he is because he's warned us that things will be hard. It will, of course, be nothing to do with his government....

Katie59 wonder what bright spots we need? I hope for a resolution of the conflict in Ukraine but that’s not in the gift of Mr Sunak.
I am thankful though that current government is not pressing for full transition to a green economy. Sri Lanka is a case in point. Could be worse here I suppose….

MaizieD

Katie59

ronib

MaizieD I have even more disbelief in the IMF having read
Oxfam International 19 April 2022
IMF must abandon demands for austerity as cost of living crisis drives up hunger and poverty worldwide.
Well worth a read.

Suspicious bunch of bureaucrats in the IMF !
I think economics needs to widen its scope for it to have any credibility as an academic discipline.

It doesn’t really matter wether IMF is right or wrong, it’s a comparison between different economies, the outlook for the UK is not good. That pretty much agrees with Sunak’s line on the economy, it’s going to be a tough year because there are very few indicators of bright spots.

I agree that, in one way, it doesn't really matter if the IMF is right or wrong, but to base one's judgement on the fact that they've been wrong about things in the past, rather than on the actual situation in the UK and the government's handling of the economy seems like pure and deliberate determination to avoid facing facts.

I find 'Sunak's line on the economy' very ironic as it is the government and the Bank of England that is making it worse than it should be. There is even talk of another inflationary interest rate rise to be announced today.

But it's clever of Sunak really, to be bent on destroying our economy but to be able gaslight the nation into believing how percipient he is because he's warned us that things will be hard. It will, of course, be nothing to do with his government....

He’s no longer fooling the nation though MaizieD, as only the most gullible 26% haven’t sussed it by now. Have you seen the latest opinion polls?
www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls

Oxfam International 19 April 2022
IMF must abandon demands for austerity as cost of living crisis drives up hunger and poverty worldwide.
Well worth a read.

This has nothing whatsoever to do with the UK's IMF growth forecast for this year.

On the other hand, I am very well aware of 'austerity'. We have experienced it under the tories just about continuously for the last 12 years. I have gone on and on and on about the idiocy of 'austerity'. If I'd been Oxfam perhaps people would have taken more notice...

Cruel and destructive though it is, austerity has been the ruling economic theory for the past 40 years. It is based on the entirely wrong idea that a nation is like a household and must balance its books. But voters love it; they cover their ears and sing la la la when anyone tries to tell them that government finance doesn't work that way.