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Shock result of latest polling

(118 Posts)
Granny23 Thu 09-Feb-23 10:39:14

A NEW poll has found that the Conservatives would become Westminster’s third party behind the SNP in a snap election. A poll of 28,000 people for The Telegraph found that if there were an imminent General Election then the Tories would be left with fewer seats than the SNP.

This would mean that SNP Leader, Stephen Flynn would become the leader of the opposition. The figures, from pollsters Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus, report Labour winning 49 per cent of the vote while the Tories would win just 23 per cent.

The style of polling used means results could be calculated in individual seats. The SNP would win 50 MPs according to results while the Tories would have just 45, down from 365.
Meanwhile, the new polling forecast that Labour would gain 306 seats, taking its total number of MPs to a record 509 out of 650 available.

Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats would more than double their number of MPs from 11 to 23 while Plaid Cymru and the Greens would be unchanged at four MPs and one respectively.

The polling was carried out from January 27 to February 5.
On a seat-by-seat basis, 15 Cabinet ministers would lose their seats including Rishi Sunak, Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, Home Secretary Suella Braverman and former prime ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss as well as ex-chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

Chief executive of Find Out Now Chris Holbrook told the newspaper that the forecasts made “shocking reading for Conservatives”'
Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, added: “The Conservatives have been far behind in the polls for the last four months, with little sign of improvement.

DaisyAnne Sat 11-Feb-23 17:57:04

ronib

2019 election 10 per cent of mps have a degree in economics and 20 per cent in politics. 19 per cent of mps Oxbridge educated.
Oxford, Cambridge, LSE and Manchester top four universities attended by mps in 2019.
Maybe draw your own conclusions?

2019 election
10 per cent of MPs have a degree in economics
20 per cent in politics

19 per cent of MPs Oxbridge educated.

Oxford, Cambridge, LSE and Manchester top four universities attended by MPs.

Sorry to reorganise it ronib but it makes it easier for me to read. I can't extrapolate anything from that but perhaps someone cleverer than me will be able to.

Callistemon21 Sat 11-Feb-23 17:38:32

MaizieD

I wouldn't mind some MPs who actually know how a national economy works... That would be novel...

A message:

DaisyAnne Sat 11-Feb-23 17:34:34

MaizieD

I wouldn't mind some MPs who actually know how a national economy works... That would be novel...

I wouldn't mind if both left and right, especially their extremes, did not insist theirs is the only way to understand an economy. Then, abracadabra, we are all meant to believe their running of the economy, seen through their particular rose-coloured economy glasses, will make even the most extreme of their views will work.

ronib Sat 11-Feb-23 17:19:40

2019 election 10 per cent of mps have a degree in economics and 20 per cent in politics. 19 per cent of mps Oxbridge educated.
Oxford, Cambridge, LSE and Manchester top four universities attended by mps in 2019.
Maybe draw your own conclusions?

ronib Sat 11-Feb-23 16:55:37

MaizieD

I wouldn't mind some MPs who actually know how a national economy works... That would be novel...

Are you standing?

MaizieD Sat 11-Feb-23 16:47:00

I wouldn't mind some MPs who actually know how a national economy works... That would be novel...

ronib Sat 11-Feb-23 16:45:08

1979 -97 most populated age bracket for mps was 40 - 49. Every election since 1997, the most populated age bracket was 50 to 59.
House of Commons library

growstuff Sat 11-Feb-23 16:32:48

ronib

Can’t remember if on the radio or tv but the argument was that younger mps would have more drive, energy and new ideas.

I'm not so sure that I want MPs with "new ideas" - well, not some of them anyway. hmm

ronib Sat 11-Feb-23 16:29:04

In reply to Daisy Anne

ronib Sat 11-Feb-23 16:28:18

Can’t remember if on the radio or tv but the argument was that younger mps would have more drive, energy and new ideas.

Casdon Sat 11-Feb-23 16:00:55

‘But I would still ask the question, Why was this article in this paper and what is their aim in it being there in such a hyped manner. I really do not think it was to help the Labour Party win, not do I think it was on a whim, with no intention.’

This DaisyAnne. I had read your previous posts, but to be honest I don’t understand what you’re trying to get across, what your own view is. All media has a bias, surely?

DaisyAnne Sat 11-Feb-23 15:53:09

Casdon

I don’t get this, because Labour voters are hardly going to be subscribing to GB News or the Daily Mail are they?

If you want your party to win, you are more likely to turn out to vote, that’s one of the big lessons from Brexit, which I think most of the electorate have grasped. That is exactly what Labour will be telling the electorate at the next election, and my prediction is there will be a big turnout - there always is at general elections when dissatisfaction runs high - the ones staying at home will be disenchanted Tories who can’t bring themselves to vote for Labour or the Lib Dems, or for that matter for the Reform Party, who I think will split the Tory vote too.

What are your answers to your questions DaisyAnne, I’d really like to know?

I answered this Casdon. Either explain what you want an answer to or read what I put (or both)

DaisyAnne Sat 11-Feb-23 15:31:55

varian

The aim of this exaggeration of the swing to Labour is to encourage would be Labour voters to be complacent about victory a stay at home.

If the Daily Mail actually wanted the Tories to lose (which is hardly likely) they would be advising Labour supporters to get out and vote Labour in all the constituencies where they have a good chance of winning and in the many other constituencies where the Liberal Democrats are the challengers they should vote LibDem. Here is a helpful list-

twitter.com/rolandhoskins1/status/1624313053679435776?t=TW9s7Q_VTjWrurScxugBHg&s=19

The aim of this exaggeration of the swing to Labour is to encourage would be Labour voters to be complacent about victory a stay at home.

That and to persuade the voters who swung to Conservative in the last election and might be thinking of swinging back again but don't want too big a majority, not to change. I would guess Varian

Casdon Sat 11-Feb-23 15:31:39

Here’s the ‘left’ take on the victory. Not much different.
www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-west-lancashire-election-blow-29175281

Casdon Sat 11-Feb-23 15:29:07

I don’t get this, because Labour voters are hardly going to be subscribing to GB News or the Daily Mail are they?

If you want your party to win, you are more likely to turn out to vote, that’s one of the big lessons from Brexit, which I think most of the electorate have grasped. That is exactly what Labour will be telling the electorate at the next election, and my prediction is there will be a big turnout - there always is at general elections when dissatisfaction runs high - the ones staying at home will be disenchanted Tories who can’t bring themselves to vote for Labour or the Lib Dems, or for that matter for the Reform Party, who I think will split the Tory vote too.

What are your answers to your questions DaisyAnne, I’d really like to know?

varian Sat 11-Feb-23 15:13:10

The aim of this exaggeration of the swing to Labour is to encourage would be Labour voters to be complacent about victory a stay at home.

If the Daily Mail actually wanted the Tories to lose (which is hardly likely) they would be advising Labour supporters to get out and vote Labour in all the constituencies where they have a good chance of winning and in the many other constituencies where the Liberal Democrats are the challengers they should vote LibDem. Here is a helpful list-

twitter.com/rolandhoskins1/status/1624313053679435776?t=TW9s7Q_VTjWrurScxugBHg&s=19

DaisyAnne Sat 11-Feb-23 15:10:57

Casdon

Read the Daily Mail piece DaisyAnne, they are not biased to Labour (as if).
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11735381/Tory-woe-Labour-sails-victory-West-Lancashire-election.html

What are your own suggested answers to the questions you posed?

Perhaps you could just look up the thread a few posts Casdon.

DaisyAnne Sat 11-Feb-23 09:49:23

Casdon Sat 11-Feb-23 15:04:27

Read the Daily Mail piece DaisyAnne, they are not biased to Labour (as if).
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11735381/Tory-woe-Labour-sails-victory-West-Lancashire-election.html

What are your own suggested answers to the questions you posed?

DaisyAnne Sat 11-Feb-23 14:55:33

Whitewavemark2

10% swing to Labour in Lancashire by-election.

They retain their seat but get a huge swing.

I know we all delight in confirmation bias and that is just what this article seems to be. However, we should not allow our reasoning to be overwhelmed by our joy.

I have, at this exact moment in time, no reason to believe the Tory party will not be out in the next election. But I would still ask the question, Why was this article in this paper and what is their aim in it being there in such a hyped manner. I really do not think it was to help the Labour Party win, not do I think it was on a whim, with no intention.

DaisyAnne Sat 11-Feb-23 14:47:43

ronib

Casdon the argument I heard was that the average age for new mps should be around 40 years. At moment it’s 50 years.

What basis was that "argument" made on, ronib?

Whitewavemark2 Sat 11-Feb-23 14:33:58

I think is the real issue

Casdon Sat 11-Feb-23 13:41:07

ronib

Casdon the argument I heard was that the average age for new mps should be around 40 years. At moment it’s 50 years.

That’s not correct though ronib, because if the average age of all MPs is 50, how can they have an average age of 50 when they are first elected? The age profile was on the attachment I posted, there are already plenty of MPs who are under 50, and very few over 70.

ronib Sat 11-Feb-23 13:04:26

Whitewavemark2

What we need are MPs with a modicum of intelligence. Age is immaterial.

We’ve managed without very intelligent mps so far!
Younger bright people do see the world in a more energetic way . 50 ish is reaching retirement age in some professions.

Whitewavemark2 Sat 11-Feb-23 13:04:08

Battledown in Yorkshire has gone to the Lib Dem’s for the first time - -ever!

Grantanow Sat 11-Feb-23 12:58:35

I wouldn't trust any poll sponsored by GB News or the Wail or the Sun or any group with an axe to grind. It's too easy to skew the questions and be selective of the participants. Online polls clearly exclude those not online. The only polls that really count are the private ones sponsored by the main political parties and they stay private, like their focus groups, for good reason.