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So letting in a bit of reality - does this mean it is the beginning of the end of Brexit

(280 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Tue 28-Feb-23 11:17:04

So Sunak has said this morning that NI is the best placed country in the world because it has access to the EU single market and the U.K. market.

So what now? Sunak has said out loud that membership is the best thing for NI. What is stopping Scotland demanding the same? What about us in England. I’d quite like what NI has.

Kandinsky Sun 05-Mar-23 11:57:38

This board cheers on the people of Scotland for wanting independence, but hates anyone who voted for Brexit.

You talk nonsense.

Kandinsky Sun 05-Mar-23 11:55:43

It meant my sister couldn't move to Spain, my son couldn't study in Germany

Why not?
Has the UK banned people from leaving the country?
What did people do before we joined the EU ? ( as we knew it at time of referendum )
Honestly, you talk like there was no life before 1992 hmm

Another friend made 60 staff in the UK redundant and moved her business to Holland

People have always been made redundant. It’s nothing new. My husband was made redundant in 1989 & again in 1998.

Somebody else I know finds it more difficult (sometimes impossible) to import seeds and plants

And that’s a reason for staying in the EU?
Jesus Christ.

It's more difficult/expensive to buy books from the EU and it's more hassle to post anything to an EU country

Here’s an idea. Buy books in this country.

I couldn’t read anymore.
These reasons are nothing to do with the average person & all to do with privilege.

Merseymog Sun 05-Mar-23 11:54:52

I'm an avid Remainer but generally try to be objective about Brexit and have to admit that the impact of Brexit on me has not been marked.

However the effect on the UK economy has been damaging made worse by Covid and the war in Ukraine. There are as I see it no positives to Brexit. The downsides have been evidenced by the departure of Honda, adverse effects to fishing and farming, loss status to the city of London, harder co-operation in the academic and scientific communities. The slow rundown of manufacturing because we could not compete or be bothered to improve to compete.

We must not forget how the EU came about. It derived from the Iron, Coal and Steel federation after WW2 to promote trade within Europe. The result has been over 70 years of relative peace in Europe including the lessening of tensions in Ireland. The most obvious effect of Brexit has been to damge the Good Friday Agreement, the Windsor protocol partly fixed this and also showed the public what the country lost through Brexit.

The UK's problems are a legacy of empire, a divided society and a reluctance to learn best practices from other countries.

M0nica Sun 05-Mar-23 11:06:40

As I said, just because someone is poisoning you slowly and imperceptibly over time, doesn't mean you are not being murdered.

ExperiencedNotOld Sun 05-Mar-23 10:20:30

Siope

But, ENO, those factors have affected many countries, not just the UK. So they do not explain:

Compared to the pre-pandemic level, UK GDP in Q4 2022 was 0.8% lower. This compares with Eurozone GDP being 2.4% higher than its pre-pandemic level, while US GDP was 5.1% higher.

For 2022 as a whole, UK GDP growth was 4.0%. This figure compares GDP in all of 2022, with all of 2021. The relatively strong rate of growth in 2022 is mostly a result of the continued recovery from pandemic-related weakness in early 2021. (GDP growth over the course of 2022 in the UK was essentially flat.)

The UK had the largest decline in GDP among the G7 in 2020 (-11.0%) and its relatively strong performances in 2021 (+7.6%) and 2022 (+4.0%) were largely a recovery from the weakness in 2020 and early 2021.

On 22 November, the OECD published new forecasts for the world economy. The OECD observed the “massive energy price shock” is taking a “heavy toll on the world economy”. The OECD forecasts UK GDP growth of -0.4% for 2023, the lowest in the G7, just below Germany (-0.3%).

(source House of Commons Library analysis of GDP – International Comparisons: Key Economic Indicators, 28 Feb 2023)

The estimated (by the ONS) impact of Brexit is a reduction in UK GDP of around 5.5%. And yes, we are finding ways: we’re finding ways to raise taxes to cover a £49bn a year shortfall; we’re finding ways to slash public services to cover both lost revenue and the lack of staff; we are finding ways to slash employment rights from this December, as a gamble that that will reduce the ‘burden’ on business. For those who say Brexit doesn’t affect them, it really does: from the tax increases to higher prices, reduced services - even not being able to manage last year’s triple lock was at leat partially because of the economic shockwaves of Brexit.

I wasn’t attempting to explain, just stimulating @ discussion with an admitted non-expert view.
At the end of the day, it comes down to whatever effects may be troubling you individually. I don’t see anything specific, and would rather get on with living the life we have now, rather than bemoaning what we had or should be having.

Siope Sun 05-Mar-23 10:15:23

But, ENO, those factors have affected many countries, not just the UK. So they do not explain:

Compared to the pre-pandemic level, UK GDP in Q4 2022 was 0.8% lower. This compares with Eurozone GDP being 2.4% higher than its pre-pandemic level, while US GDP was 5.1% higher.

For 2022 as a whole, UK GDP growth was 4.0%. This figure compares GDP in all of 2022, with all of 2021. The relatively strong rate of growth in 2022 is mostly a result of the continued recovery from pandemic-related weakness in early 2021. (GDP growth over the course of 2022 in the UK was essentially flat.)

The UK had the largest decline in GDP among the G7 in 2020 (-11.0%) and its relatively strong performances in 2021 (+7.6%) and 2022 (+4.0%) were largely a recovery from the weakness in 2020 and early 2021.

On 22 November, the OECD published new forecasts for the world economy. The OECD observed the “massive energy price shock” is taking a “heavy toll on the world economy”. The OECD forecasts UK GDP growth of -0.4% for 2023, the lowest in the G7, just below Germany (-0.3%).

(source House of Commons Library analysis of GDP – International Comparisons: Key Economic Indicators, 28 Feb 2023)

The estimated (by the ONS) impact of Brexit is a reduction in UK GDP of around 5.5%. And yes, we are finding ways: we’re finding ways to raise taxes to cover a £49bn a year shortfall; we’re finding ways to slash public services to cover both lost revenue and the lack of staff; we are finding ways to slash employment rights from this December, as a gamble that that will reduce the ‘burden’ on business. For those who say Brexit doesn’t affect them, it really does: from the tax increases to higher prices, reduced services - even not being able to manage last year’s triple lock was at leat partially because of the economic shockwaves of Brexit.

ExperiencedNotOld Sun 05-Mar-23 09:52:03

Dickens

Urmstongran

And I have never been disrespectful towards anyone who voted differently to me in the referendum.

No Urms, you haven't. And that's why I can always engage with you. Have a good Sunday!

And making a reasonable discussion, hurrah!
Has no-one realised the peak and trough nature of economics.? I’m no expert, this is remembrance from HND study in 1979, but bad times follow good, which are followed by good, followed by bad. Live was pretty bleak just a few years earlier than me learning that, but I can’t recall much bleakness about the next few years until the slump in the late 80s, and so on. We then entered an overly long period of stability, and here we are now.
Look at the factors that have affected progress on the Brexit front. Covid, the cost of the exit from Afghanistan, the support to Ukraine, particularly the cost of ammo and equipment, the Putin caused energy crisis, the shift into a reliance on the state. We’re bogged down. Not excuses but fact.
We’ll find a way, whatever government may be in charge. We’ll all be a bit nearer death by that time but it’ll happen. And it’ll happen mainly for those growing into a new world. Us oldies don’t really matter. Again, that’s fact.

MaizieD Sun 05-Mar-23 09:35:09

In a lot of way, I think there are some parallels with the aspirations of the SNP wanting independence. Experts warn their supporters that it will be a big mistake, they will be poorer etc but their fervour does not diminish (much). I can understand this yearning for self governance.

There is absolutely no comparison at all. The Scots are able to make a sound economic argument for independence based on the work of reputable economists.

Though, as I write this I think of the predictions made by Patrick Minford, the much derided tame economist of the Leave campaigners, who managed to foretell a rosy economic future out of the EU, while telling us that Brexit would destroy our agricultural and manufacturing sectors.

I can't for the life of me imagine what he thought we would trade with once they had gone. Services I presume?

He has certainly turned out to be as accurate in his 'destruction' predictions, which Remain voters pointed out before the ref. What hubris gripped Leave voters when they ignored Minford's prediction (which admittedly was kept very low key) and went for airy and unfounded promises of future prosperity?

Anyway, I note that Scotland's 'yearning for self governance' includes rejoining the organisation from which they were dragged against their will 😆

Dickens Sun 05-Mar-23 09:25:38

Urmstongran

And I have never been disrespectful towards anyone who voted differently to me in the referendum.

No Urms, you haven't. And that's why I can always engage with you. Have a good Sunday!

Dickens Sun 05-Mar-23 09:18:14

Whitewavemark2

😄 that’s about it because that is all the leavers have left - insults.

Brexit has not benefited them one jot, the remark that says “I have noticed no difference,” says it all,

But every single one of them is affected, they simple seem unable to make the connections or are in denial.

I suspect probably the latter.

I am not going to spell out how Brexit has affected us all, we all know very well. There isn’t a single person in the country who is not affected.

Neither is there a single person who has benefited, except the miniscule number of very wealthy people who have enriched themselves on the back of the lies and fraudulent referendum.

Brexit has not benefited them one jot, the remark that says “I have noticed no difference,” says it all,

If they've noticed no difference then it does beg the question why so many insist they would still vote the same way again!

However Oreo has said she voted to remain in the EU. 🙃

The thinking appears to be that the referendum 7 years ago was the end of the matter, rather than the beginning of the process. Therefore, any comments or observations about the effects of Brexit are null and void because, well, it was "done" seven years ago!

Sometimes I can hardly be bothered to engage with those who cannot or refuse to acknowledge that a decision which would inevitably lead to a huge shift in our economic and constitutional way of life, would be an ongoing process.

Brexit was a deception, a confidence trick, and our politicians have lost control of it. And having lost control, they resort to deflecting blame to manipulate voters. And it works. Every time.

... and I'm now off to do some studying. Contrary to what some think on here - Remainers do have a life outside of social media, one that they enjoy and get on with. I've found some free courses on Open University and I'm going to look at The Theory of Music smile.

M0nica Sun 05-Mar-23 09:17:40

Just because someone hasn't hit you on the head with a sledgehammer. Doesn't mean they are not trying to kill you slowly and imperceptibly with poison.

Companies are relocating from the UK to EU countries, our government is failing to replace the research funds that we previously got from the EC, even the funds they used to add to the fund are no longer going into research.

The results of this are not a sledgehammer to the head, but slowly but surely more and more of our brightest young people will need to look to other countries for research opportunities, new industries will not open to replace those that go, although industries that need low paid gig economy staff will move here because our workplace law and protection is not as demanding as other countries.

Countries drifting down hill into decline do not necessarily do it dramatically. They just gently fall asleep and drift into the eddies while other countries rush by.

Then there are all the Brexit promises. Where is the money meant to that is meant to have gone into the NHS. Where is the research money meant not just to to match but exceed the Horizon programme. What about the ERASMUS programme that brought so much young fresh foreign talent to the country.

Kadinsky et al may be in excellent health and and not give a toss about the future of children and grandchildren. But most of us care deeply about the future of our descendants, thye are beloved and dear to us. We worry about whether the doctors and drugs will be there if they are ill, or will we have no access to drugs available elsewhere, because we took no part in the resaerch or cannot to pay the non-contributory cost of them for British people.

I assume Kadinsky et al do not eat salads and miss out on their 5 a day, not a good idea now the £350 million a week is not going to the NHS. Yesterday we returned from a break in north France. The supermarkets there had an abundance of fruit and veg of all kinds, especially salad veg. I came back with kilos of tomatoes, cucumber and salad leaves, there were peppers and aubergines.

On the way home from Portsmouth we dropped into a supermarket to get some cheddar and one or two otheritems. The salad aisle was totally devoid of any salad veg at all.

They say you do not miss what you have never had, and as other countries pull ahead of us in everyway, we will not notice because, never having had the advantages they get from being in the EU, we will not notice how much better it is within the larger political and market grouping.

Their are non so blind as those who will not see.

Urmstongran Sun 05-Mar-23 09:07:31

I am disappointed. Very. Brexit benefits have not been pursued robustly. We as a country, fold very easily. The EU run rings around any negotiating team we put forward and they know they have the upper hand as we will not disengage but continue to appease.

The NIP Bill sat in the Lords for ages and has now been scrapped. That was our best chance of meaningful autonomy.

By the way, I’m not n denial with my views.
And I have never been disrespectful towards anyone who voted differently to me in the referendum.

In a lot of way, I think there are some parallels with the aspirations of the SNP wanting independence. Experts warn their supporters that it will be a big mistake, they will be poorer etc but their fervour does not diminish (much). I can understand this yearning for self governance.

Parsley3 Sun 05-Mar-23 08:25:34

Leave voters who say that they notice no difference must be very disappointed. Surely a leave vote was intended to make things better for everyone. Why are leave voters not questioning the absence of those promised benefits? Is adopting a stiff upper lip approach the best they can do? Mustn't grumble, eh.

vegansrock Sun 05-Mar-23 08:04:58

Perhaps those who notice no difference could tell how Brexit is a benefit then and whether is was worth all the billions it has , and so times to cost, the country. I know loads of people and businesses negatively affected. Brexit has been a benefit toAmsterdam , Paris and Dublin because many businesses have relocated from the U.K.

Whitewavemark2 Sun 05-Mar-23 06:02:42

😄 that’s about it because that is all the leavers have left - insults.

Brexit has not benefited them one jot, the remark that says “I have noticed no difference,” says it all,

But every single one of them is affected, they simple seem unable to make the connections or are in denial.

I suspect probably the latter.

I am not going to spell out how Brexit has affected us all, we all know very well. There isn’t a single person in the country who is not affected.

Neither is there a single person who has benefited, except the miniscule number of very wealthy people who have enriched themselves on the back of the lies and fraudulent referendum.

Dickens Sun 05-Mar-23 00:36:36

Oreo

Dickens my choice to let it go, your choice to not to, tho exactly what you can do to not let it go apart from complaining on forums is a mystery.
Get on with your life and you’ll be happier.

... well let me solve the "mystery" then.

I'm not "complaining", I'm arguing the case. Against Brexit - which is what the OP is about- because I enjoy the heat of political debate.

And why you assume that I don't get on with my life - or even that I'm not happy with it - outside of posting on this forum, I have no idea. Other than the likely possibility that you are patronising me. Maybe because I challenged you and you think that's a good retaliatory put-down?

MaizieD Sun 05-Mar-23 00:28:39

Zoejory

It doesn't matter if 100% of the population wishes we'd stayed in the EU.

I voted Remain but I've managed to accept the result.

Would you be so accepting if it had destroyed your livelihood or narrowed your future career prospects?

Zoejory Sat 04-Mar-23 23:42:11

It doesn't matter if 100% of the population wishes we'd stayed in the EU.

I voted Remain but I've managed to accept the result.

varian Sat 04-Mar-23 23:38:04

It seems to be a hallmark of certain Leave voters that they insist that they and all their friends think we were right to leave the EU.

Most people think we were WRONG to leave the EU.

whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/?removed

MaizieD Sat 04-Mar-23 23:22:49

Extraordinary that people have posted on this thread how Brexit has affected their lives, and those of people they know, but it's not at all significant in any way because other posters haven't noticed anything different.

But they can't tell us what great advantages Brexit has brought us that makes inflicting difficulties on other people's lives all worthwhile...

growstuff Sat 04-Mar-23 22:35:12

Oreo

Dickens my choice to let it go, your choice to not to, tho exactly what you can do to not let it go apart from complaining on forums is a mystery.
Get on with your life and you’ll be happier.

Did you take lessons in gaslighting or is it natural?

growstuff Sat 04-Mar-23 22:33:49

I wonder where people buy their blinkers. It really does affect most people's lives.

growstuff Sat 04-Mar-23 22:32:53

Oreo

Kandinsky

I’m asking the people on here, not Steve Baker or Sarah Vine.
Tell me some of the 100 ways it has adversely affected the average person.
Because as I just said, it hasn’t affected me at all.

It hasn’t affected most people in the UK is the truth of the matter.
I’m not retired, and am not wealthy, but Brexit hasn’t affected me.
Energy prices, and which have a knock on effect on food prices have affected me but that’s nothing to do with the EU.

Well, it's affected me! My new passport isn't burgundy and it doesn't give me the same rights as the old one.

Urmstongran Sat 04-Mar-23 21:38:43

Oreo

Kandinsky

I’m asking the people on here, not Steve Baker or Sarah Vine.
Tell me some of the 100 ways it has adversely affected the average person.
Because as I just said, it hasn’t affected me at all.

It hasn’t affected most people in the UK is the truth of the matter.
I’m not retired, and am not wealthy, but Brexit hasn’t affected me.
Energy prices, and which have a knock on effect on food prices have affected me but that’s nothing to do with the EU.

Me neither.
I’m retired and not remotely well off. Life seems just the same for our family and all our friends since 2016.
Goodness. Was it really that long ago? I remember the day of the result as though it were yesterday.

Oreo Sat 04-Mar-23 20:58:02

Dickens my choice to let it go, your choice to not to, tho exactly what you can do to not let it go apart from complaining on forums is a mystery.
Get on with your life and you’ll be happier.