I’m not counting my chickens

ronib

Liberal Democrats maybe will make an impact in the GE next year? I just feel two party politics has had its time. I know that LDs usually do well in the locals but at moment, there’s a change of mindset?

I’ve said it before on this thread, but I don’t think we will have a good picture until the experts have done more detailed analysis by seat (all seats, not just the ones fought for last week). I think the Lib Dem’s will do very well where there’s no/very little Labour presence, it will be a straight fight between them and the Tories and they will win the majority. The map is definitely changing, we could see swathes of the south with Lib Dem seats. However, those aren’t Labour target seats, it will be the Labour/Tory straight fight seats they are looking to win, and some Scottish seats too. I’m not aware of any seats where it’s a Lib Dem/Labour straight fight, although I would guess there are a few.

Yes, this will be the case for many Conservatives, always has been.

But I truly and honestly believe that this time is different.

The one issue here, is that as the Conservatives, with this very hard Brexit à la ERG that was never meant to be, + Covid spending (massive amounts to friends of the party- for useless PPE, etc), and the knock on effect of the war in Ukraine, have totally decimated the coffers and more - I know many who are so disgusted with the Tory Party, but fear increases in taxes, etc- which any other party will have to charge to try and redress the course. The damage to be mended is humongous.

Many I know will vote Tory with head bowed in shame- to protect their finances.

Ed Davey might be the politician with the broadest appeal at the GE? He won 400 ish seats in the locals and this might give him some confidence for the GE. I think the LDs can bridge the gap between extreme left and right and that’s where this country needs to be.

It wasn’t Ed Davey who won in our local election, it was the LD councillor who’s done sterling work on local issues for years. Nothing to do with party politics. And the area has returned a Conservative MP since the year dot - I haven’t the slightest doubt it will do so again.

GSM well equally North Norfolk has increased its number of Conservative councillors. Thus bucking the trend.
However just because you live in a very safe Conservative seat, doesn’t mean that marginals won’t move to the Liberals. They might if they have any clout see the sense of bridging the political divide.

Germanshepherdsmum

It wasn’t Ed Davey who won in our local election, it was the LD councillor who’s done sterling work on local issues for years. Nothing to do with party politics. And the area has returned a Conservative MP since the year dot - I haven’t the slightest doubt it will do so again.

It’s about margins though, isn’t it? Very safe seats aren’t likely to change hands, but the vast majority of seats are not so clear cut. If you’ve had an MP of x party for 30 years+ the seat is much less likely to change, so that doesn’t really prove anything. My local seat had a big swing Tory at the 2019 election, but it had been Lib Dem for some years before that. The margin won’t need to be huge for the Lib Dem’s to win that back.

NanaDana

So what's likely to make the difference at the G.E. next time around? Boris and his sleaze? Liz Truss' disastrous two weeks? Starmer's apparent desire to distance Labour from the far left? No Jeremy Corbyn in the picture? Or something that hasn't even surfaced yet? A miraculous economic recovery? Someone said that a week is a long time in politics. There's still plenty of time for more bouquets and bombshells.

The NHS is falling apart and the tories have no time to do anything about it.

Our waterways are being heavily polluted and the tories actually voted to give the water companies years longer in which to clean them up.

The cost of living crisis where people who are struggling can see the tories not attempting to curb profiteering on the part of the energy companies and supermarkets.

There isn't going to be an economic miracle because the tories won't spend money on public services, notably the NHS, and it's state spending that is going to improve the economy. Investors, foreign and local, are reluctant to invest in an economy where there potential customers have very little money to spend and where exporting to our nearest big market has deliberately been made more difficult.

Tories can't pull those rabbits out of the hat because they're ideologically opposed to what it would entail.

I live in a supposedly Labour stronghold. Yet Conservatives won local elections, just shows what a mess Labour councillors made of local needs.

I’ve found the breed of chicken we will be counting.

The type of fictional rabbit that might be pulled and this is a complete guess, so with apologies….. a massage of the rate of inflation which by some fluke makes everyone suddenly feel better off. It’s the way Jeremy Hunt refers to the rate of inflation which makes me suspicious.
Does feel as if he’s addressing the primary school assembly too.

The Tories have been almost wiped off our council by the greens. This is truly a vote on local issues - the felling of trees, uprooting hedges and generally laying waste our green spaces. All this despite huge local protests.

They rode rough shod over local opinion.

How this will translate in the GE I’m not sure but there’s a grear dislike and distrust of all things Tory now.

ronib

The type of fictional rabbit that might be pulled and this is a complete guess, so with apologies….. a massage of the rate of inflation which by some fluke makes everyone suddenly feel better off. It’s the way Jeremy Hunt refers to the rate of inflation which makes me suspicious.
Does feel as if he’s addressing the primary school assembly too.

I think that you're right in that Sunak and Hunt are banking on people thinking that a reduced rate of inflation will mean that the cost of living will come down. And that tory policy has caused the reduction.

This is, of course, utter nonsense. All that the inflation rate measures is the difference between prices at two given moments in time. A falling inflation rate just means that prices haven't increased so fast in the given period. NOT that prices themselves have been reduced.

The only way that the government could have any effect on prices would be to introduce price controls. Which the tories are never likely to do as it interferes with 'the market'.

Which is why - unlike the more sensible approach in Europe, we pay so much more for our energy.

A better opposition leader would be good. Be careful what you wish for.

Other parties and some in Labour are urging starner to say he would repeal the public order act Labour are not saying.

Election Maps UK

Councillors:

🌹 LAB: 2,675 (+537)
🌳 CON: 2,296 (-1,063)
🔶 LDM: 1,628 (+407)
🏘️ IND/LOC: 967 (-101)
🌍 GRN: 481 (+241)
➡️ RFM: 6 (+2)
📙 LIB: 4 (+2)
💷 UKIP: 0 (-25)

Councils:

🌹 LAB: 72 (+22)
🌳 CON: 33 (-48)
🔶 LDM: 29 (+12)
🏘️ IND/LOC: 4 (+1)

nanna8

A better opposition leader would be good. Be careful what you wish for.

I think the problem has been having a bad opposition leader for years, who also filled the front benches with his supporters and sidelined all of the experienced MP’s . We now, imo have a very good one. It’s always dangerous to have a weak opposition

Starmer reckons that the new polices aren't very different to the pledges he abandoned. Liar?
The polices which he was elected on were a continuation of Jeremy Corbyn's centre-left socialism, while his current plans mark a shift to right-wing neoliberalism.
Think about the NHS before he was preaching about a fully publicly-owned service, now he wants to infect it with ever more corporate profiteering.
He is saying he wants to stimulate the economy with lower taxes 🙄 we all know that didn't work so well for Liz Truss crashed the economy.

Taxes are not at an all-time high.
Corporation tax, Capital Gains Tax, and the top rate of Income Tax are all lower than they were 40 years ago.

He is not to be trusted.

In 2015 he campaigned against Isreal racism. Now he is a stanch ally of that country's government.

He even lies about lying.

Corbyn centre left ? 😀

I get the impression that Grany is quoting that from somewhere. I dread to think where it comes from.

Germanshepherdsmum

I get the impression that Grany is quoting that from somewhere. I dread to think where it comes from.

Yes, copy from Vox Political. I’ve told Grany numerous times about crediting her sources.

Thanks Casdon. One can always tell Grany’s own style …

Yes VP correct 👏 what does it say about Starmer though he is still a liar. And he said let the law bed in about new public order act. Like those arrested, detained for 16 hours, had to bed in

Grany your views are so predictable.

Which party will you vote for? It sounds as if like many people who repeat your views, as though you’d prefer tories

As far as I can see Iam64 there is not much choice between tory or Labour. I will vote Greens. I have always voted Labour.