By Elections on 20th July..

The by-election turnout was very close to the average by-election turnout over many such. This means the results are a pretty good prediction of a GE result unless Labour implodes over ULEZ or the Tories discover a gigantic magic money tree.

I was appalled by Jonnie Mercer's reaction to the election of a 24 year old . He was very insulting. Is this the new character of Tory ministers appearing ?

Starmer, thank God actually wants to win an election, I completely underestimated him, this loss might actually help Starmer in a bizarre way.

Hmm. True, but there was an actual anti scheme candidate so it wasn’t a hidden issue.
And who controls the media etc.

The labour party arent blaming Johnson for the initial implementation, they are uneasy about the policy but I think it dawned on them too late.

growstuff

Yes.

Thank you. I just wanted to make sure my facts were right.

HousePlantQueen

So, have I got this right?

Johnson, as mayor of London, introduces ULEZ
Sadiq Khan continues to implement it, and in return for help in keeping TfL afloat during lockdown, agrees to widen the reach of ULEZ, told by Grant Shapps that this is non negotiable.
Johnson loses seat due to his party finally getting sick of his lies.
By election.
Tories and electorate blame Khan and the Labour Party
Have I got the bare bones of it right?

I hope Labour learn from this, local issues matter to people and I suspect they hadn’t got their campaign line straight.

Yes.

So, have I got this right?

Johnson, as mayor of London, introduces ULEZ
Sadiq Khan continues to implement it, and in return for help in keeping TfL afloat during lockdown, agrees to widen the reach of ULEZ, told by Grant Shapps that this is non negotiable.
Johnson loses seat due to his party finally getting sick of his lies.
By election.
Tories and electorate blame Khan and the Labour Party
Have I got the bare bones of it right?

Romola

About the Laurence Fox supporters in Uxbridge - I suspect that they had heard of him and knew his face from the Lewis series etc., but had no clue as to his right-wing ideas.
There were so many candidates that it must have been very difficult for voters to distinguish between them. No wonder most didn't vote.

People voting 'without having a clue' about the candidate (or the issue) is truly scary and more!

Yes, it was.

I have Asthma, COPD and part of one lung non functioning (a long ago illness).

I live in one of the London leafy suburbs that will be affected by ULEZ....but I wonder how bad the air is here. I breath as well here as anywhere else, so it's not that bad.

People need to work - it needs to be bought in slowly, and with systems set up to help people replace vehicles.

The High Court are due to rule soon over whether there needs to be a delay and a Judicial Review.

I didnt realise until reading on another board that it was actually Boris Johnson who kicked the scheme off - at the time much govt financial back up. Yes folks, ULEZ brought in by Conservatives

www.london.gov.uk/press-releases/mayoral/ultra-low-emission-zone

So all those voting Tory against the scheme had no idea they actually kicked it off. I suspect that on thing that happened was that the level government backing shrunk and Khan left to carry the can.

Romola

The Lib Dem win was the fourth by-election win in a row. I find it interesting that they are able to call upon huge numbers of their members, activists and supporters to go and campaign for weeks on end.
Is it just their position on proportional representation, or are they particularly engaged with their party in a way most people are not?

It's the latter. My neighbouring constituency is Cambridgeshire South, which is a LibDem target. There's always a plea for LibDem members to help with canvassing in the target seats. LibDems are stronger at local level than is reflected at national level in parliament.

Dinahmo I suffer with sever asthma, have done all my life.

I am all for clean air but I cannot justify people being unable to get to work due to the ULEZ.

We send between two and three vehicles into central London every day, it costs us many thousands of pounds to purchase new vehicles every three years to ensure they are ULEZ compliant. Not particularly beneficial to the planet, but until there is a viable electric option that’s what we shall continue to do.

When some of my kids worked in London, they used to blow their nose and black soot came out.

I dont know much about UL EZ. But there does seem to be widespread disquiet about it.
Seems to me like the issue needs to be relooked at. And at least adjusted.

I'm diverging here but some of you don't appear to take air pollution too seriously, nor does the current govt.

I'm a severe asthmatic and find walking in cities or large towns difficult, especially when rain is keeping the emissions down. On bad days, my DH has to drop me at our destination and then park. I'm sure I'm not alone in this.

Babies and children in prams/pushchairs are at just the right level to breathe in exhaust fumes.

In France we are required to have a clean air sticker on our cars if driving into certain areas, such as big cities. There are 6 categories, depending upon output of pollutant emissions.
Certain vehicles can be banned, either all the time of when pollution levels, such as caused by pollen, are bad.

My nearest shopping town, population under 2000 has charging points in some parking areas and also at supermarkets. This is quite common.

Finally, there are generous scrappage schemes.

growstuff

GrannyGravy13

Totally understand the ULEZ in central London, but there is no need to extend it all the way out to the M25.

Apparently it was a condition for government funding for TfL during lockdown.

See Clause 13h

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/955254/TfL-settlement-letter-with-annexes.pdf

and letter on 14 May 2020

Nothing surprises me anymore.

This just hasn’t been thought through, lots of people on lower wages and shift work need their cars to get to work, they can neither afford the £12 daily charge or to replace their vehicle with one that is compliant.

The Lib Dem win was the fourth by-election win in a row. I find it interesting that they are able to call upon huge numbers of their members, activists and supporters to go and campaign for weeks on end.
Is it just their position on proportional representation, or are they particularly engaged with their party in a way most people are not?

growstuff

Casdon

Most constituencies have always been a two horse race though Witzend. Where I live is also a Tory/Lib Dem marginal, and I’ve voted tactically in the past to get a Lib Dem MP, which is what I think millions of people will do at the general election. So we will see more Lib Dem MPs. I don’t think there are any LibDem/Labour marginal seats, so they aren’t going to be fighting against each other.

I can think of a couple of LibDem/Labour marginals:

Sheffield Hallam
Cambridge
Leeds North West

Admittedly, there are many more LibDem/Conservative marginals:

Wimbledon
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheltenham
Winchester
Cheadle
Cambridgeshire South
Esher and Walton
Lewes
Guildford
Eastbourne
St Ives
London and Westminster
Hazel Grove

The LibDems only need a small swing to take all (or most) of them, although I don't know how they'll be affected by boundary changes.

I suspect Starmer is hoping that the LibDems will win the "leafier" constituencies, which is why he's trying to appeal to the "red wall".

Thanks for that growstuff. I think you’re right, and there’s little point in a pitch battle for either party if they know one of them is less likely to beat the Tories if they fight each other for votes.

My constituency has a 27,594 Conservative majority. I think the LibDems and Labour gave up years ago. It fills me with dread that my MP might be one of the few Conservative MPs left!

About the Laurence Fox supporters in Uxbridge - I suspect that they had heard of him and knew his face from the Lewis series etc., but had no clue as to his right-wing ideas.
There were so many candidates that it must have been very difficult for voters to distinguish between them. No wonder most didn't vote.

Casdon

Most constituencies have always been a two horse race though Witzend. Where I live is also a Tory/Lib Dem marginal, and I’ve voted tactically in the past to get a Lib Dem MP, which is what I think millions of people will do at the general election. So we will see more Lib Dem MPs. I don’t think there are any LibDem/Labour marginal seats, so they aren’t going to be fighting against each other.

I can think of a couple of LibDem/Labour marginals:

Sheffield Hallam
Cambridge
Leeds North West

Admittedly, there are many more LibDem/Conservative marginals:

Wimbledon
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheltenham
Winchester
Cheadle
Cambridgeshire South
Esher and Walton
Lewes
Guildford
Eastbourne
St Ives
London and Westminster
Hazel Grove

The LibDems only need a small swing to take all (or most) of them, although I don't know how they'll be affected by boundary changes.

I suspect Starmer is hoping that the LibDems will win the "leafier" constituencies, which is why he's trying to appeal to the "red wall".

Most constituencies have always been a two horse race though Witzend. Where I live is also a Tory/Lib Dem marginal, and I’ve voted tactically in the past to get a Lib Dem MP, which is what I think millions of people will do at the general election. So we will see more Lib Dem MPs. I don’t think there are any LibDem/Labour marginal seats, so they aren’t going to be fighting against each other.

GrannyGravy13

Totally understand the ULEZ in central London, but there is no need to extend it all the way out to the M25.

Apparently it was a condition for government funding for TfL during lockdown.

See Clause 13h

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/955254/TfL-settlement-letter-with-annexes.pdf

and letter on 14 May 2020

DaisyAnneReturns

Witzend

Unable to sleep just for a change, I was up in the night watching.

IMO it’s probably right that ULEZ was a factor in Uxbridge, though I’ve seen a TV journalist trying to dismiss it a little while ago.

It’s going to mean £12 every time you take a non compliant vehicle, out, which is going to disproportionately affect the less well off. The young gardener, a very hardworking chap with his own business, who looks after our communal areas, was complaining bitterly about it not long ago. Because of all the essential kit, he has to take his vehicle out every day for work, and will have to spend a considerable amount on a newer one, or cough up the cash every single day he works.

And it’s going to be the same for many small businesses/tradesmen, or anyone else who does really need their vehicle for work.

Of course it’s a good idea in theory, but….

If the LDs see the Somerset result as a renaissance, IMO they’re deluding themselves. In the Selby constituency the LDs won only about 1000 votes, ditto the Greens.

Let's look some facts.

The swing required by Labour in Selby and Ainsty was 17.9%. What they got was 23.7%. This is a traditional 'conservative' area. Conservative with a small 'c' which has made them vote Conservative in many cases, all their lives. These are farmers, these are people who made their money when industrialisation carried the area in the 1970s. These are people who wake up in the morning and defer buying something until they can afford it. They are people who don't feel that Essex is the only way. They are people who plan for the future and enjoy the present at the level they can afford. They don't live on huge mortgages, they don't live on gambling with other people's money. They true Conservatives. Building lives and business by sweating and worrying alongside those who help them and often going without in order to look after their workers. One of my friends, in despair, said they were going to vote for the Monster Raving Looney Party. I doubt that they did, but they will certainly have sent a message to the extremists who have taken over their party.

ULEZ was certainly the main factor in Uxbridge. The issue cannot be resolved under a Conservative government, as they refuse a proper scrapage scheme. So why would people vote for them in a General Election? A potential Labour government can have a proper plan to help people in the transition, which they could not do in a by-election.

All you can come up with against the Liberals is that it's not a "Renaissance". Take the extremist blinkers off, as many have in the North. They won it. It will be the first of many where there are disaffected Tories. Take them for granted at your peril.

You have just reminded me how little the supporters of this extremist government do facts.

I don’t know why you assumed that I support this government!
I don’t. And will almost certainly vote LD in the next GE - this constituency is invariably a close toss-up between Tories/LDs - we have a LD MP. Though probably not so close next time. But I for one would not put even a tenner on a major LD comeback.

Labour come nowhere here and TBH I can’t see that changing - not without a much more inspiring leader. Might add that I fervently wish they had one.