Follow the Polls

I’ve seen one poll that has Reform level with the Tories, but it won’t last because as I’ve said on another thread, once the candidates credentials become obvious, support for reform will fall away.

^ as I’ve said on another thread, once the candidates credentials become obvious, support for reform will fall away.^

You're more confident than me, then, Wwmk2 😁

If they can swallow Farage I think they'll swallow anyone...

Whitewavemark2

Biden is now leading Trump in the polls

Biden 49%

Trump 45%

Yippee

Are we following theirs as well as our own?

If Biden is leading and even wins the presidency, then there will be trouble. Trump has more or less said - or certainly implied - that he expects to win. He's not going to accept defeat a second time. And neither will his fanatical supporters.

By comparison, our own political environment is far less stressful - regardless of the outcome.

😄😄 I’m sort of going on what happened to UKIP when they were exposed to be a load of charlatans. Apparently none of the Reform candidates have been vetted😮😮 so goodness knows what they are hiding!

Are we following theirs as well as our own

😄 could do I suppose, as I am getting board with ours not moving.

Although there is a suggestion that Labour is increasing it’s lead, but it hardly matters with the huge lead they apparently have.

I’m worried that it is all a mirage.

This is of interest.

www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/09/crank-tory-candidates-accused-of-sharing-online-conspiracy-theories

It would be wonderful if party selection processes worked well so that we don’t have sexual predators, conspiracy theorists, bullies, dishonesty or any other such MPs next time round, in any of the parties. I’d love to see parliament transform into a respectable and respectful institution.

Casdon

It would be wonderful if party selection processes worked well so that we don’t have sexual predators, conspiracy theorists, bullies, dishonesty or any other such MPs next time round, in any of the parties. I’d love to see parliament transform into a respectable and respectful institution.

Quite!

They are selected, approved - then weeded out afterward!

Grannygravy13 - I’m catching up so responding late to your concerns that Starmer may be held back by the left, as Conservatives have been dictated to by their right.
I’m not so worried. I voted Starmer and I’m reasonably happy so far. ‘The left’ in my constituency, aka the activists historically dislike Starmer and would have preferred their own candidate to stand in this election. ‘That lot in London’ prevented their name going forward. I’ve no doubt this was because they only left Momentum a couple of weeks before throwing their hat in the ring.
There are muttering about getting rid of Starmer post election. Sadly for them, the ‘moderates’ are fully behind our candidate and Starmer
You don’t get to head the CPS. Be a QC or run an argumentative Labour Party without a ruthless streak. I’m hoping we will be ok. I see Starmer and Rayner as a good match/mix and then we have Wes Streeting, Yvette Cooper, Rachel Reeeves, Lamy, Jess Phillips and many more. Wanders off singing the Manc anthem Always Look On The Bright Side Of Life de dum ……

Latest polls, showing Labour increasing their lead. Dorries has now alleged that Sunak intends to just go before the election. If true, that really would be a first- a leader deserting a party midway through an election campaign, and with them having no method of electing a new one.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-sunak-farage-mordaunt-rayner-latest-news-b2559291.html

Bumping to get up past spam

Yes I keep reading that about Sunak, but it may just be wishful thinking on the part of some of the headbangers in the Tory party.

Some polls -IPSOS - now have Reform and the Tories neck and neck, but they are in the minority.

Generally Labour remains ahead by about 21 points, on about 43-44% I was reading yesterday that if the support for the Tories drop below 20% then they really are in wipeout territory.

Whitewavemark2

Yes I keep reading that about Sunak, but it may just be wishful thinking on the part of some of the headbangers in the Tory party.

Some polls -IPSOS - now have Reform and the Tories neck and neck, but they are in the minority.

Generally Labour remains ahead by about 21 points, on about 43-44% I was reading yesterday that if the support for the Tories drop below 20% then they really are in wipeout territory.

We can but hope. Reform may, as with UKIP in the past, get a lot of scattered votes - but it doesn’t convert to seats.

One reform candidate has stood aside so that Tory Gavin Williamson can have an easy ride.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/reform-candidate-saves-gavin-williamsons-32988540

So will the Tory manifesto out today and will this shift the polls?

The Tories are now trying to attract the young vote with the re-introduction of the help to buy scheme (according to newsnight). Sunak admitted that housing is a nightmare and got much worse under the Tories. I wonder if this will work.

Whatever is in there will, though, beg the question: you’ve had 14 years, if you believe in this, why haven’t you done it?

I think the Manifesto launch is one of the last chances to change the polls/the election results.

Dinahmo

This is of interest.

www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/09/crank-tory-candidates-accused-of-sharing-online-conspiracy-theories

My goodness, thats an eye opener! I've been posting Reform Party politicians' views in GN but it appears the Conservatives have had to rush to find candidates and not checked either.

Not sure what the Conservative manifesto can "pull out of the bag" as they have Reform on the one hand pulling to the right and centrist voters on the other who would be happier with more moderate conservatism.

The Labour Manifesto will be later this week and I'm fairly sure it will be a "steady as she goes" manifesto because the right wing MSM are waiting to pounce.

This in the Guardian. - Jenrick and Braverman waiting to pounce apparently

“In the event Sunak’s launch fails to shift the dial on the Tories’ floundering election campaign, one option under discussion is a press conference next week to set out a series of alternative pledges.”

Well that should move the polls🙄

Whitewavemark2

This in the Guardian. - Jenrick and Braverman waiting to pounce apparently

“In the event Sunak’s launch fails to shift the dial on the Tories’ floundering election campaign, one option under discussion is a press conference next week to set out a series of alternative pledges.”

Well that should move the polls🙄

I’ve lost the plot now. What about centre right voters if that happens - and where does it leave the candidates who are standing to be Tory MPs who are moderate, and are probably the good constituency MPs who would be re-elected for that reason?

Well if that happens I think they will simply implode.

Well that’s that. Nothing that will move the polls, unless Labour totally cock it up on Thursday.

Joe Coburn said that the Tory right are not at all impressed snd beginning to agitate.

We shall see.

Sunak got plenty of applause launching the Tory manifesto at Silverstone just now. Be interesting to see whether or not it moves the dials any. He did seem much more comfortable addressing the audience and took on loads of questions from SKY, several newspapers, GBNEWS etc.

I listened to chunks of it - brass neck urmstongran, that’s my initial response. Shameless over confidence based on a life of privilege

The applause was from the Tory audience😄😄😄

As everyone is saying Iam “too little, too late*.
Himself just said “he’ll be promising us the Town Hall clock next”.

I was just pointing out he got a lot of applause. And seems much more confident in his delivery.

Well they can promise the moon on a stick but the question will always be - you’ve had 14 years to do all this stuff why haven’t you done this already?