Follow the Polls

Just now in the Telegraph:

“ Reform UK has closed the gap on the Conservatives in the polls to just one point.

A new YouGov poll put Nigel Farage’s party on 17 per cent, just one point behind the Conservatives on 18 per cent.

Reform have gained one point and the Conservatives have lost one point from the results in YouGov’s poll last week, from 16 and 19 per cent respectively.

Labour remains in the lead but is down three points to 38 per cent, whereas the Lib Dems have surged by four points to 15 per cent following the launch of their manifesto.

The poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday this week.”

To be honest I don’t set much store by polls.
Do you?

Something the polling organisations are really finding difficult with this election is estimating turnout, especially among young people. This had been dropping steadily over the last few general elections, down to below 50%, but could well spike significantly this time.

Changing the subject slightly, are you being election literature bombed?
Before the election was announced I was getting a steady stream, but since then I’ve only had one communication, from the Lib Dem’s. They also have lots of boards up in gardens and fields. Labour also have lots of boards, primarily in town. The Tory boards are usually everywhere, particularly in the fields, but so far I haven’t seen any at all for them. I’ve had nothing, and seen no boards for Reform. Just wondered if we are typical, or if it’s a similar picture elsewhere.

It is astounding how the media and bias continues to drip.

So this evening I watched an IPSOS. Representative. So the question was about how much importance do voters put on tax reduction.

The answer - not much. In fact they would rather it was used to improve public services.

Top in importance - cost of living, national health, state of economy and immigration - in that order.

Heading on bbc

“Voters think immigration more important than tax”

Casdon

Changing the subject slightly, are you being election literature bombed?
Before the election was announced I was getting a steady stream, but since then I’ve only had one communication, from the Lib Dem’s. They also have lots of boards up in gardens and fields. Labour also have lots of boards, primarily in town. The Tory boards are usually everywhere, particularly in the fields, but so far I haven’t seen any at all for them. I’ve had nothing, and seen no boards for Reform. Just wondered if we are typical, or if it’s a similar picture elsewhere.

Zero

Ive only seen half a dozen boards in gardens on my morning walk, all Labour, and our Tory MP was delivering his own leaflets here last week.

Perhaps campaigning will ramp up over the next few weeks?

No leaflets here (yet) either Casdon.

Mind you I live in a strong Labour seat, so it would be mad to spend much money on electioneering here when it could be so much better spent on a more marginal seat

I’m in a TossUp seat, which is why I wondered really, I can see the logic in all the parties spending less in areas where there is a clear cut result expected, elections do usually generate mountains of leaflets which must cost a lot to produce. Maybe you’re right Pantglas, and it will ramp up nearer the election.

I’ve had the Tories round, nobody else, buts it’s a very safe Tory seat so others don’t put a lot of resources in

Urms I take it you’re referring to the new Sky/YouGov poll, which shows the LibDems up 4 points whilst Reform are up only 1?

And which show a 61% minimum preference for progressive parties (more if the SNP, Plaid and independents were included) compared to 35% maximum for the right?

Data says:
LAB 38% (-3),
CON 18% (-1),
RefUK 17% (+1),
LDEM 15% (+4),
GRN 8% (+1)

Honestly, you cannot rely on Telegraph headlines or clickbait for accurate interpretations of this stuff.

No election leaflets of any kind have come my way, though the local Labour candidate introduced himself on a local elections leaflet in May.

But we're relatively isolated, we don't get much attention.

I mean yes ‘Reform close gap on Tories to 1 point’ is true, but it is a secondary story here.

Look at the libs😮

You Gov btw

I think the Lib Dem’s are playing a clever campaign, concentrating on their target seats and getting themselves in the news. Maybe the stunts have worked.

Well they certainly seem human, with humane policies.

I’ve worked quite a bit with LibDems, especially over Brexit, and they are a lovely bunch.

Casdon

I think the Lib Dem’s are playing a clever campaign, concentrating on their target seats and getting themselves in the news. Maybe the stunts have worked.

They're also getting themselves out there. Our seat is Conservative, but hopefully, will shift to Lib Dem. A few weeks ago, DH had a personal phone call from the LD candidate over an email he had sent him. That decided it for DH who has up until now been a Tory voter. I'll follow suit!

I actually think that the Lib Dem’s would make a much more effective opposition, because the Tories are so far out there that they aren’t really in a position to make a sensible opposition.

They have vowed to reverse Brexit! 😱
Surely many who voted Remain will want to vote for them now anyway?

Urmstongran

They have vowed to reverse Brexit! 😱
Surely many who voted Remain will want to vote for them now anyway?

Those of us who voted Remain will vote for whichever party they think is best for the country. It’s what we do.

As do I MayBee70. 😁

Even if it means voting for a party that has candidates like this?
A Reform UK candidate claimed the country would be "far better" if it had "taken Hitler up on his offer of neutrality" instead of fighting the Nazis in World War Two.
Ian Gribbin, the party's candidate in Bexhill and Battle, also wrote online that women were the "sponging gender" and should be "deprived of health care".
In posts from 2022 on the Unherd magazine website, seen by the BBC, he said Winston Churchill was "abysmal" and praised Russian President Vladimir Putin.
A Reform spokesman said the comments were not "endorsements" but "written with an eye to inconvenient perspectives and truths", while his remarks about women were "tongue in cheek".
Mr Gribbin declined to comment.
In July 2022, Mr Gribbin posted on the Unherd website: "Britain would be in a far better state today had we taken Hitler up on his offer of neutrality…. but oh no Britain’s warped mindset values weird notions of international morality rather than looking after its own people."
The same month he wrote: "In Britain specifically we need to exorcise the cult of Churchill and recognize that in both policy and military strategy, he was abysmal."
The previous month he criticised women, writing on the site’s message board: "Do you think you could actually work and pay for it all too like good citizens?
"Men pay 80% of tax – women spend 80% of tax revenue. On aggregate as a group you only take from society.
"Less complaining please from the 'sponging gender'."
He added that women are "subsidised by men to merely breath (sic)".
In January 2022 he posted: "Men pay 80% of tax. Women take out 80% of expenditures.
"Square that inequality first by depriving women of healthcare until their life expectancies are the same as men, Fair’s fair."
In December 2021 he wrote female soldiers "almost made me wretch (sic)" and were a "total liability".
From the BBC website….

I am a Remainer. Brexit was, is, and will continue to be, a total disaster for this country, economically, culturally and socially. Increasingly, the numbers who are in favour of Brexit (and able to vote about it) are declining, due to Leavers changing their minds;, attrition of older voters; more young people able to vote; a wider and deeper evidence base of the costs; and so on.

I am quietly confident that within the next two Parliaments, we will have negotiated a very different, far more co-operative, better for Britain, deal with the EU, and I believe rejoining is inevitable, although I wouldn’t like to put a timescale on that. I don’t have to vote for the LibDems for this to happen.

In the meantime, we need to rebuild all the other things this government has destroyed, and if I were in a seat where it made a difference, I’d vote tactically to get shot of the Tories so that can begin.

As it is, I’m in a safe Tory stronghold, so may well vote LibDem because I think several of their policies are very good.

Casdon just one leaflet here - from the Greens. Apart from that … zilch!