From The Conversation
This time next week we will know for sure!!
The United Kingdom general election will be held in a week, on July 4. Polls close at 7am AEST on July 5. The 650 members of the House of Commons are elected by first-past-the-post, in which the candidate with the most votes wins the seat.
In the UK, votes are not counted at individual polling places, but are instead transported to a central place for counting within that seat. This delays the results, so the vast majority of seats will be declared from late morning to mid-afternoon AEST on July 5.
The Guardian’s national poll tracker has Labour leading the Conservatives by just over 20 points. Vote shares are 41.3% Labour, 21.0% Conservatives, 15.5% for the far-right Reform, 11.1% Liberal Democrats and 5.8% Greens. Recent individual polls have Labour leading the Conservatives by 16 to 24 points.
In the last few weeks, there has been a surge for Reform and to a lesser extent the Lib Dems, at the expense of both Labour and the Conservatives. Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has been unchanged.
If these polls are replicated at the election, Labour will win a landslide, owing to the first-past-the-post system. The Guardian’s seat forecast is for Labour to win 424 of the 650 seats, the Conservatives 135, the Lib Dems 47 and the Scottish National Party (SNP) 19.
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