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Follow the Polls

(710 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Thu 23-May-24 07:29:20

I am not sure if it will be possible over the next 42 days, but I thought it would be fun to try to see. How the polls perform after the various gaffs that the politicians will inevitably make.

Whilst the gap is huge at the moment, it will almost certainly close as the days go by.

I think I’ll use Politico (poll of polls)

Oreo Sun 30-Jun-24 18:16:21

LizzieDrip

WW you’re a star⭐️

This poll above looks amazing! Surely it’s too good to be true🙈

I can’t wait for Thursday when the polling stations open, then it’ll be down to democracy!

Yeah, def too good to be true, but no need to fear, Labour will still win big😄

Casdon Sun 30-Jun-24 18:20:57

I presume the Northern Ireland seats are excluded Whitewavemark2, as it doesn’t add up to 650?

Yes, roll on Thursday.

Whitewavemark2 Sun 30-Jun-24 18:22:48

Casdon

I presume the Northern Ireland seats are excluded Whitewavemark2, as it doesn’t add up to 650?

Yes, roll on Thursday.

Yes i dithered about whether to include them but laziness took over - would you like me to post them?

Casdon Sun 30-Jun-24 18:39:38

No, not for my benefit, I just wondered why it didn’t add up, and guessed that was the reason - don’t know if this thread has any NI followers who would?

LizzieDrip Sun 30-Jun-24 21:02:50

This is going to sound like a stupid question but I’m going to ask it anyway:

Does anyone think the England football fans being out in Germany will have any impact on the voting numbers? I somehow can’t imagine many of them doing postal votes prior to the tournament (apologies to those that have).

I might be overthinking the whole thing. It’s probably the nerves kicking in now we’re on the home stretch😬

Casdon Sun 30-Jun-24 21:12:48

I doubt it will have much impact because the next England match isn’t until 6th July, so most fans are likely to come home to work this week, and fly back out to Germany next weekend. Most fans take their holidays at the beginning of the tournament when the matches are all close together at the knock out stage so they can travel between venues. (My family go to the Euros when Wales get through, I imagine England fans do similar).

LizzieDrip Sun 30-Jun-24 21:56:55

Thanks Casdon. I haven’t got any family that go to the tournaments so not sure how they would do it. The way you describe makes sense. Sorry Wales didn’t get through this time - but it’s only football🤷‍♀️

DH watched it on TV today and I had a sudden panic that all those fans would stay out there until Saturday - thereby missing the GE😱

I must stop overthinking this. God, will I be glad when it’s Thursday and whatever happens, happens!

MaizieD Sun 30-Jun-24 22:01:12

If Labour doesn't win I think that just about every polling company in the UK will go bust 😆

LizzieDrip Sun 30-Jun-24 22:11:16

Actually, Maizie I read a Sky News report recently that said the very same. They said that, if the Conservatives win this election, the entire polling industry will be totally discredited overnight!

I still can’t bring myself to believe the polls though😱

MaizieD Sun 30-Jun-24 22:38:07

I don't want to believe the one that predicts 6 seats for Reform! One or two would do for me...

MayBee70 Sun 30-Jun-24 23:52:11

If they do they’ll claim it is the greatest election victory ever sad. Which it won’t be. But they’ll still get an excess of publicity for it.

Wyllow3 Mon 01-Jul-24 00:23:53

I just hope the turnout is reasonable, as I think its been such a negative campaign - tho things have to be called out sometimes - I dont want our democracy to suffer.

nanna8 Mon 01-Jul-24 04:36:12

Interesting to know what percentage actually do turn out. It is interesting, also, that polling day is on a weekday there. They are always on a Saturday here because most people work on weekdays. I know some work at weekends but the majority don’t. We have to vote here, it is compulsory and if it wasn’t I’d be pretty sure most wouldn’t bother. I used to be very anti compulsory voting but have changed my mind these days.

Joseann Mon 01-Jul-24 06:22:19

In France, polling day is on a Sunday. I think yesterday's turnout was around 60%, which is fairly high. Marine Le Pen appears to be celebrating. Whether this will influence our voters' choice, who knows?

Callistemon213 Mon 01-Jul-24 07:07:31

Whitewavemark2

In the absence of any movement in the polls thought I’d post this for a change.

That's very funny!

Yes, I will admit to sherry blush
But just one a week on Sundays before dinner and it has to be a very dry, chilled Tio Pepe. I picked up the habit in Spain.

Whitewavemark2 Mon 01-Jul-24 07:13:28

So todays poll is politico dated 27/6 and % votes

Labour 41%

Tory 20%

Reform 17%

Lib-dems. 12%

Greens 5%

SNP. 3%

Plaid. 1%

Whitewavemark2 Mon 01-Jul-24 07:14:20

Calculus on actual seats remains the same as above dated 27/06

Mamie Mon 01-Jul-24 07:21:38

Joseann

In France, polling day is on a Sunday. I think yesterday's turnout was around 60%, which is fairly high. Marine Le Pen appears to be celebrating. Whether this will influence our voters' choice, who knows?

Reading this morning's papers I am not sure anyone knows what will happen next Sunday. A week of intense politicking ahead! Very glad the RN didn't win in our commune though.
Promise not to derail WWM2. 😊

Whitewavemark2 Mon 01-Jul-24 07:27:16

I think I’ll end with actual seats and then we can have a virtual sweep stake between us guessing the actual seats and win this lovely trophy plus a virtual holiday to the Maldives with snorklibg equipment supplied.

Details of your reward below

🏆 award to put on your shelves
🏅to proudly wear on your chest
✈️. From Gatwick
🛖stay in a round straw-roofed bungalow
🦇 fruit bats will drop date stones onto your roof - thudding all night.
🐟🐠🐳🦈🐡🐙 a selection of waterlife you will see
🌞 unremitting sun but palm trees will give you shade
It is a no news- no shoes island. So a complete paradise.

Well done to the winner!!

Whitewavemark2 Mon 01-Jul-24 07:29:03

Mamie

Joseann

In France, polling day is on a Sunday. I think yesterday's turnout was around 60%, which is fairly high. Marine Le Pen appears to be celebrating. Whether this will influence our voters' choice, who knows?

Reading this morning's papers I am not sure anyone knows what will happen next Sunday. A week of intense politicking ahead! Very glad the RN didn't win in our commune though.
Promise not to derail WWM2. 😊

I don’t mind🙂.

That is interesting as well

So how does the two votes work. ?And so far we are reading Le Pen is ahead?

Oreo Mon 01-Jul-24 08:09:11

When does the virtual sweepstake start? Can I concert the virtual holiday to cash?😊
The polling may be a bit out but even so Labour can’t lose at this stage.
As to football fans not voting, well if they always intended to vote they still will but others, particularly the younger ones probably won’t.In fact am wondering how many 18-30 years old will bother to vote anyway.

Oreo Mon 01-Jul-24 08:10:30

Convert not concert, I’ve been watching Glasto too much.

Oreo Mon 01-Jul-24 08:12:28

Callitemon213 a dry sherry? You little devil.
I enjoy every drink mentioned there.😁

Whitewavemark2 Mon 01-Jul-24 08:13:16

The sweep stake starts after the last lot of actual seats prediction is published on Thursday morning.

Cash is not an option as I’m getting a cut from the holiday company..

Casdon Mon 01-Jul-24 08:17:11

I think the sweepstake should be a one day only event on voting day, then all the potential events throwing our predictions off course will have passed? I’m up for the virtual Maldives prize, sounds wonderful (and no spiders as it’s virtual!)