Follow the Polls

If I take part in pre election polls I sometimes make stuff up like many others . They are rarely accurate and I think they are a waste of time and money.

Casdon

Off to an exciting start.

Trump says he’s backing Starmer…oh good.

Two Tory MPs have announced that they won’t be standing. Deputy Commons Speaker Dame Eleanor Laing MP for Epping Forest, and Jo Churchill, MP for Bury St Edmunds and work and pensions minister.

Sunak has put his foot in it in Wales by asking if we were looking forward to the Euros. It went to the wire, we didn’t qualify, and it’s a very sore point.

😄.

Although I’m not sure about getting an endorsement from Trump😮. I reckon that he is thinking that he needs to look like a winner and so is backing what he thinks is a winner.

R Stewart reckons that there are quite a few Tory MPs that will be standing down. And many he spoke to think that Sunak has lost his marbles going now.

All to play for.

Tories challenge Starmer to a record six TV debates
Rishi Sunak willing to debate the Labour leader every week of the election campaign to prove his opponent has no plan …

Off to an exciting start.

Trump says he’s backing Starmer…oh good.

Two Tory MPs have announced that they won’t be standing. Deputy Commons Speaker Dame Eleanor Laing MP for Epping Forest, and Jo Churchill, MP for Bury St Edmunds and work and pensions minister.

Sunak has put his foot in it in Wales by asking if we were looking forward to the Euros. It went to the wire, we didn’t qualify, and it’s a very sore point.

Me too. To quote the inimitable Pam
“It’s all the drama Mick, I love it!”

Whitewavemark2

Farage and Tice can’t stand each other. Two enormous egos.

I read somewhere that Farage reckons he’s been promised a job by Trump.

I read somewhere that Farage reckons he’s been promised a job by Trump.

A match made in Heaven. Or that other place.

Of course the die is far from cast - but maybe UK Sales-Manager for the Trump brand?

I cannot see what use Farage would be to Trump, should he win, the Trump bandwagon is stuffed full of all kinds of willing individuals who better understand American politics which is what matters to Americans most, surely?

Farage is well-known in the UK, but he doesn't really hold much sway nor have any particular influence here, so what would be his 'usefulness' quotient? He can't play golf because of his spinal injury, and is a keen cricket fan, and I understand most Americans don't care much about the game.

He's very very British and Trump is very much not. Still, opposites do attract each other and their politics chime.

Witzend

At least the gaffes will liven up the run-up.

Personally I’m really looking forward to election night - I always stay up well into the small hours - though will usually have had a little zizz on the sofa from say 10-11.
Must remember to stock up with popcorn.

I have been saving a bottle of champagne😄 given to me by my nephew at Christmas.

Popcorn sounds good as well.

I know most people are completely turned off but I love the run up to an election and the actually results.

At least the gaffes will liven up the run-up.

Personally I’m really looking forward to election night - I always stay up well into the small hours - though will usually have had a little zizz on the sofa from say 10-11.
Must remember to stock up with popcorn.

Farage and Tice can’t stand each other. Two enormous egos.

I read somewhere that Farage reckons he’s been promised a job by Trump.

Aveline

I probably won't watch/read the media at all. I just can't face all the nonsense that will inevitably go on. I'll read the party manifestos and vote accordingly.

... me too, Aveline.

We know, in advance, the point-scoring accusations that will be levelled by one party against another.

It will be mildly interesting to see what Sunak and his government who are, understandably, rather keen to hold on to power, come up with to persuade the voters, but apart from that, it will be the same old same old.

And meanwhile, I still cannot get a future appointment with my GP and don't know what to do to secure one. I have tried 111 (it's not urgent enough for A&E), but they have told me to contact my GP. I attempted an e-consult form online, but it's only 'open' in surgery hours and as I was near the end of the day, the submissions reached their quota and I was 'timed-out'.

... small, unimportant stuff - but for many of us the kind of day-to-day minutiae that matters but which will most likely not be addressed during the politicking.

... as long as no politicians promises to "deliver" something-or-other to the British people, I think I can cope.

I’ve just seen that Farage isn’t standing. Richard Tice is launching the Reform campaign this morning, I wonder if he will announce any more Tory MP defections, or perhaps announce that Reform won’t stand anybody and will throw Reform’s hat in with the Tories? Exciting times.

I thought that this was interesting.

Because of the big Tory majority, Labour has a much more difficult task.

So Labour will need something like a 12% lead in the polls to get a majority of just 1.

The Tories have a much less onerous task.

Absolutely nothing can be taken for granted by the Labour Party.

In layperson's terms, it means that the bookies are sure that Labour will win and nobody else has a hope in hell.

Whitewavemark2

Urmstongran

Great 👍

Yes but I understand say 10/1 - that £10 back for every pound you bet.

But what does 2/17 mean?

I looked it up. This is the principle.

A bet with odds of 9/1 odds has a 10% probability of occurring, whereas a bet with odds of 1/2 has a 50% probability.

I can’t do the maths off the top of my head, but 2/17 odds must be very much in favour of a Labour victory.

Aveline

I probably won't watch/read the media at all. I just can't face all the nonsense that will inevitably go on. I'll read the party manifestos and vote accordingly.

👏👏👏👏

Urmstongran

Great 👍

Yes but I understand say 10/1 - that £10 back for every pound you bet.

But what does 2/17 mean?

Great 👍

Urmstongran

Thanks Whitewave (and Casdon) this will likely be an interesting thread. Mind you - the bookies odds are usually very accurate as they will be putting money where their mouths are!
😁

So OddsChecker (I need an interpreter!). With most seats

Labour 2/17

Tories 14/1

Others 10/1

Thanks Whitewave (and Casdon) this will likely be an interesting thread. Mind you - the bookies odds are usually very accurate as they will be putting money where their mouths are!
😁

This is it.
news.sky.com/story/general-election-poll-tracker-will-labour-or-the-conservatives-win-12903488

I’m lazy. So am I, that's why I think Whitewavemark2 is onto something condensing all the faux pas into one thread. Or else we will have 56 million other threads on the go? Anyway, I've got to make pas now and head off out.

Aveline

I probably won't watch/read the media at all. I just can't face all the nonsense that will inevitably go on. I'll read the party manifestos and vote accordingly.

Good for you! If only we were all so sensible.

DiamondLily

The most accurate polls, in recent years, have been by Sir John Curtice and Lord Ashcroft.

But, all of them are only as good as what people tell them.🙂

So I guess it is trends that we are interested in then rather than pin point accuracy.

Can you copy and paste casdon?

I probably won't watch/read the media at all. I just can't face all the nonsense that will inevitably go on. I'll read the party manifestos and vote accordingly.

Oh an app. I hadn’t thought of that.

Yes if things can be believed Sunak, jumped in pdq for a number of reasons. Firstly the 1922 letters had reached tipping point. And according to Sky - this is as good as it gets, everything points to the situation getting worse again next winter. So Sunak couldn’t wait until the autumn, when signs of the continual slide begins to show again.