Follow the Polls

Another good piece of information for the nerds comparing MPs standing down by party to previous elections and the main reasons given. Updated this morning.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/mps-standing-down-general-election

Day - god knows

This is beginning to get boring now.

Not an inch of movement.

Expect Sunak to promise a food free week or some such if he wins the election, Not sure what else he can do.

Surely something will happen soon.

Perhaps Sunak will throw in the towel.

Well: large poll by Electoral Calculus and Find out Now campaign suggests the Conservative Party is on course for its worst result in history.

LAB: 493 (+297)
CON: 72 (-300)
LDM: 39 (+31)
SNP: 22 (-26)
PLC: 4 (+2)
GRN: 2 (+1)

With Tactical Voting:
LAB: 476 (+280)
CON: 66 (-306)
LDM: 59 (+51)
SNP: 26 (-22)
PLC: 3 (+1)
GRN: 2 (+1)

More than 10,000 people were surveyed for the Daily Mail and GB News
Details: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Day heavens alone knows.

Not a smidgeon of movement. I reckon the computers have been nobbled.

Todays promise might move it!

£20 million for 30 towns. Or is that £30 million for 20 towns. Still, whatever, haven’t a clue how it will be funded, but what does it matter as long as the polls show some life.

Oh! Some movement according to the Telegraph.

Tories now on 19% and hopefully will get a respectable 66 seats after the election😄😄😄

I’m sure it is rubbish.

Me too! Wishful thinking.

(On their part - not mine ha!).

According to the radio, earlier, the Tories have regained a couple of points. Nothing to do with Labour, just that the Reform support has started to drop.

Second Sunday.

Papers talking about a Tory wipeout. Seats as little as 66.

But no real discernible movement.

Sir John Curtice agrees.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cqllzg4wz5lo

It’s worth reading the headlines in the Daily Express, which portray an alternative UK, I think their columnists are on the happy pills.

We can all be political pundits and have a guess as to how things will go on the day.As polls can’t be truly trusted but give an indication the truth is likely to be somewhere in the middle.
I predict that Labour will win easily but not so much that it’s a total landslide.

I predict that the Lib Dem’s will do well, I think they will reach the predicted maximum number of seats the polls are suggesting.

I’m too nervous to predict anything. But I do think the figures the polls are showing are ridiculous.

I’m too nervous to predict anything

Me too WW! I just can’t let myself believe the polls … no matter how much I want to.

Today’s collated polls, BBC tracker:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68079726

Thank you diamondlily I can’t do links on this I-pad.

Perhaps Badenoch’s plan to protect biological sex will work😄😄.

This is coming at 5pm today, a seat by seat prediction based on an extensive YouGov poll. It will be interesting to see how it matches against the generic polls.
news.sky.com/story/general-election-live-uk-latest-politics-sunak-starmer-davey-economy-tax-immigration-tories-labour-lib-dems-12593360?postid=7763259#liveblog-body

Ah - that might tie in with some local newspapers reports I’ve seen talking about their seats. For example I think it was a Shropshire local reporting that their seats which at the moment are Tory will be labour after the election. Keep seeing reports like that.

Here it is. I’m excited, my seat is down as Tossup!
news.sky.com/story/labour-could-be-on-course-for-194-seat-commons-majority-yougov-poll-13147370

Love that Casdon!

We’re on for Labour again which is par for the course - in my voting life (1974>) we’ve gone back and forth between red and blue with pretty good MPs of either colour truth be told.

Most of the time my vote counts for nowt - I’m proud owner of the claim I never voted for Thatcher or Blair!

Whitewavemark2

Thank you diamondlily I can’t do links on this I-pad.

Perhaps Badenoch’s plan to protect biological sex will work😄😄.

Oh, I supplied it on my IPad. Weird. 🤷‍♀️

So what do the pale blue areas indicate?

If you click on the constituency it tells you what the prediction is. I found it works better on the YouGov site because the map is too small on the Sky News article. My constituency shows as light blue, I assume because it is a Tory seat now, but the prediction is tossup.

That's interesting. My seat is a light blue TossUp too. Currently Conservative, and I know Labour can't possibly win, so that must mean a likely Lib Dem grab.

Joseann

That's interesting. My seat is a light blue TossUp too. Currently Conservative, and I know Labour can't possibly win, so that must mean a likely Lib Dem grab.

That’s the downside of it, it doesn’t tell you who it’s a tossup between. I’m guessing my seat is Tory/LibDem too.