Follow the Polls

I don't blame him.
He needs to think of himself and his health and his family now.

Whitewavemark2 - Hahaaa, I know. Politically astute people know all this. I’m just alarmed though at how many aren’t. And those are people who vote too.

Day 5

Still stuck in the same lane. Not an inch of movement.

Voters so far seem impervious to everything the parties are throwing at them. I reckon they are waiting for the gaffs to begin.

Sunak lost another MP, this time to reform. He spent the day delighting in his national service plan, which seems only to be appealing to our age group according to polls. But perhaps it is more about appealing to potential reform voters than anything else, as they are the ones who tend to like discipline (oh my!)

Starmer made his launch speech with the theme of “change” (who knew), and apart from having a pop at Sunak’s Teenage Dads Army - we learned very little we didn’t already know.

I read that whereas Sunak has to work hard to lose with only a small defeat. Starmer simply has to carry on with what he has been doing and ensure the polls remain as they are.

That seems what is, at the moment being played out.

Today’s update on resignations from the BBC.

We've just had news that another MP is standing down at this general election - this time it's the MP for Swansea West Geraint Davies.

He is currently suspended from the Labour Party following allegations of sexual harassment, which he denies, and has been sitting as an independent.

Earlier today, two more MPs announced they will not be standing in July's election.

Labour's Lyn Brown, who has represented the east London constituency of West Ham since 2005.

And former Plaid Cymru MP Jonathan Edwards, who accepted a police caution for assaulting his wife. Edwards says he considered running against his former party, but has said on "deep reflection" he decided it was time for him to step down.

It means a total of 130 MPs have so far said they will not stand at the election. Here is the breakdown by party as it stands:

Conservative: 78
Labour: 29
SNP: 9
Sinn Fein: 3
Green: 1
Plaid Cymru: 1
Independent: 9

I still want to see a list of what’s happened with each of the MPs who have lost the whip, looks like 9 of them are going.

The latest Westminster Voting Intention by age groups shows that 33% of over 65s intend to vote Labour, 26% tory & 15% Reform. Reform splitting the tory vote.

12% of 18-24 year olds intend to vote for Reform?
Is that right?

Day 6.

Polls remain the same despite the Telegraph getting exited about a poll from JP partners suggesting that the difference had narrowed to 12 points.

So does this mean that we are finally going to see some movement?

Perhaps this week will see the start of an expected narrowing as the weeks progress.

Callistemon21

12% of 18-24 year olds intend to vote for Reform?
Is that right?

Why shouldn't it be?

MaizieD

Callistemon21

12% of 18-24 year olds intend to vote for Reform?
Is that right?

Why shouldn't it be?

Looking more closely, the 18 - 24 y old vote for Reform seems to mirror their parents and grandparents. Which is probably understandable. As they get older they display more independent thought...

MaizieD

MaizieD

Callistemon21

12% of 18-24 year olds intend to vote for Reform?
Is that right?

Why shouldn't it be?

Looking more closely, the 18 - 24 y old vote for Reform seems to mirror their parents and grandparents. Which is probably understandable. As they get older they display more independent thought...

Perhaps I was just a Contrary Mary when I was younger although I couldn't vote until I was 21+ of course.

I thought that was the prerogative of the young? To rebel against the older generations?

So this is something interesting.

You-gov are reporting that Labour have extended their lead to a near record high at 47%.

That was reported on newsnight last night.

It is the first complete poll since the announcement of national service, so make of that what you will.

Sky just confirmed this increase.

So Labour 47% +3

Tories 20% -2

Lib Dem 9%

Reform 12% -2

Greens 7% + 1

So it seems after what has been announced over the past week that the voter is being turned off by the right and turning instead towards the centre ground.

Report on under 50s

NEW: YouGov's under-50 voting intention

Labour: 59%
Greens: 12%
Conservatives: 8%
Reform: 8%
Lib Dems: 6%

YouGov's over-50 voting intention

More information

Seems that Sunak's Barmy Army idea has bombed in the polls. Too many gimmicks methinks.

MaizieD

MaizieD

Callistemon21

12% of 18-24 year olds intend to vote for Reform?
Is that right?

Why shouldn't it be?

Looking more closely, the 18 - 24 y old vote for Reform seems to mirror their parents and grandparents. Which is probably understandable. As they get older they display more independent thought...

Not sure about that, maybe they don’t understand the Reform Party and just latched onto the word Reform.Who knows.
Under 21 more likely to vote Green or Labour you’d think.

Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle has been suspended by the Labour Party over a complaint about his behaviour.
The MP for Brighton Kemptown has been told by the party he will not be eligible to be a candidate at 4 July's election.
Only five weeks to go now, let’s hope he is the last suspension before the election.

It's like watching dominoes falling over!

Week 1 completed.

No change in the polls - there have been some outliers going in opposite directions but the poll of polls to be found on politico, bbc and sky show no movement.

So state of play after one week of frantic activity is the same as we started.

I’ve put in predicted seats with predicted % vote just for a change

Current Prediction: Labour majority 308

Party
CON23% seats 92

LAB44%. Seats 479

LIBDem 9% Seats 44

Reform11%. Seats 0

Green. 6% Seats 2

SNP. 3% Seats 12

PlaidC 0.6% seats 3

Other 1
DUP 7
SF 7

I heard on radio 5 this morning that the Don't Knows are 10-15% so could have a big impact if they decide to vote.

WW this is brilliant - thanks for doing it🙏

Sillymoo

I heard on radio 5 this morning that the Don't Knows are 10-15% so could have a big impact if they decide to vote.

Yes, and I suspect the majority of them are conservative voters, given the mess the Tories are in.

So the polls will close quite a lot towards the end I think.

Whitewavemark2

Sillymoo

I heard on radio 5 this morning that the Don't Knows are 10-15% so could have a big impact if they decide to vote.

Yes, and I suspect the majority of them are conservative voters, given the mess the Tories are in.

So the polls will close quite a lot towards the end I think.

There was a very interesting article on Sky yesterday about how different polling companies allocate the undecided when they make their predictions.
news.sky.com/story/general-election-2024-why-are-different-polling-companies-getting-such-different-results-13145117
I felt quite reassured on reading it, that actually the poll of polls is the most accurate assessment of what may happen.

According to the commentator I'm following the indications at the moment seem to be that the 'don't know' potential vote is split pretty evenly between tory and Labour. Mostly on the evidence of a recent poll of 'don't knows'

In a large sample poll published yesterday Redfield and Wilton asked 1,411 “don’t knows” who they were leaning towards. There was no evidence of a skew towards the Tories.

(Sorry, can't link to this as it is a subscription blog)

Good oh! Hope that is correct.