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Reform/Farage - economic policies don’t add up.

(297 Posts)
Wyllow3 Tue 18-Jun-24 13:50:18

The Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank has published its assessment of Reform UK's tax and spending plans and it says they “don't add up”. And they are not just relatively unrealistic, it says. It says the costings are out “by a margin of tens of billions of pounds per year

details:

Reform UK proposes tax cuts that it estimates would cost nearly £90bn per year, and spending increases of £50bn per year.

It claims that it would pay for these through £150bn per year of reductions in other spending, covering public services, debt interest and working-age benefits.

This would represent a big cut to the size of the state. Regardless of the pros and cons of shrinking the state, or of any of their specific measures, the package as a whole is problematic.

Spending reductions would save less than stated,

and the tax cuts would cost more than stated, by a margin of tens of billions of pounds per year.

Meanwhile the spending increases would cost more than stated if they are to achieve their objectives …

Even with the extremely optimistic assumptions about how much economic growth would increase, the sums in this manifesto do not add up. Whilst Reform’s manifesto gives a clear sense of priority, a government could only implement parts of this package, or would need to find other ways to help pay for it, which would mean losers not specified.

ronib Wed 19-Jun-24 10:39:50

Freya5 you probably have not seen the A4 synopsis of the Reform contract which a friend who is an academic has forwarded.
A4 and all the key points neatly laid out. Genius really.
Be good if Labour could do this too . 136 pages down to one page. Then voters can get their heads around the proposals …………

MaizieD Wed 19-Jun-24 10:43:16

Germanshepherdsmum

Labour are good at borrowing David. I shall be very interested to see where the investment comes from - if it does …

Of course, no one in the private sector ever borrows to invest, do they, GSM. hmm

Not that the government needs to borrow. As David says, the government could just instruct the BoE to create the money for them. (Just as commercial banks 'create' the money they lend to businesses and to individuals)

Whitewavemark2 Wed 19-Jun-24 10:44:44

Governments borrow to invest in order to promote growth in challenging times (and I don’t think anyone would argue that theses aren’t challenging times). So by injecting this money into the economy, it will stimulate demand, thereby support business who in turn will create more jobs which in turn will create more demand.

Greater growth = higher revenue = the infrastructure projects will have long term economic benefits which will in term offset the borrowing.

Wyllow3 Wed 19-Jun-24 11:21:24

Conservative party in future and Nigel Farage -LBC interview

“Q: Would you welcome Nigel Farage into the Conservative party?

No, says Sunak. He says he is fighting against Nigel Farage at the election.

Q: What about in the future?

Sunak says he is focused on winning the election.

Ferrari tries again. And Sunak just says he is focused on the election.

Ferrari asks what he thinks of the FT report saying Tory MPs are focused on the next leadership contest.

Sunak says he is just focused on the election.”

ronib Wed 19-Jun-24 11:22:40

Is borrowing then added to the trillions- nearly 3 - known as the National Debt? It would be great to know if the next government will have a ceiling on the amount or is the sky the limit?

ronib Wed 19-Jun-24 11:26:37

Wyllow3 well considering the polls at the moment, Sunak needs full focus on the election. Bit of a non question really?
Was Sunak ever going to say anything else?

Germanshepherdsmum Wed 19-Jun-24 11:46:55

ronib

Is borrowing then added to the trillions- nearly 3 - known as the National Debt? It would be great to know if the next government will have a ceiling on the amount or is the sky the limit?

I think we know from the past that the sky’s the limit for Labour.

Dickens Wed 19-Jun-24 12:01:02

ronib

Wyllow3 well considering the polls at the moment, Sunak needs full focus on the election. Bit of a non question really?
Was Sunak ever going to say anything else?

Well it's a straightforward question...

Would you welcome Nigel Farage into the Conservative party?

... and there are 3 answers...

1. Yes
2. No
3. I don't know

Each could be qualified with and I don't want to discuss this further for obvious reasons at the moment.

Which would then, hopefully, lead to the next question.

But the way politicians answer direct questions - and it's not only Sunak, they all do it - by repeating a mantra - is I think what irritates a large percentage of the electorate.

They don't have to commit to anything - they can say they would rather not answer the question and don't intend to - but by ignoring the question completely by repeating their catchline simply ensures that the interviewer carries on poking for an answer.

Germanshepherdsmum Wed 19-Jun-24 12:31:26

Interviewers will always carry on poking until they get the answer they want.

M0nica Wed 19-Jun-24 13:31:38

Whitewavemark2

I think that Carlos Boix has actually been quite influential - that is what I have read.

From his site

“I teach and do research on political economy and comparative politics, particular on empirical democratic theory, the choice of institutions and their consequences for growth and inequality”

There is a list of his books if anyone is interested.

Any academic economist, good or bad will be able to write this. It proves nothing.

Dickens Wed 19-Jun-24 13:32:10

Germanshepherdsmum

Interviewers will always carry on poking until they get the answer they want.

As evidenced by Andrew Neil, Jeremy Paxman, and the late Brian Walden, though I wonder if many remember him, but he was considered to be one of the best political interviewers in the history of British broadcasting. It's alleged he was Margaret Thatcher's favourite - in spite of the fact that he gave her a hard time in interviews, which speaks in her favour.

PoorJenny Wed 19-Jun-24 13:38:14

If you look at the poll charts it states that Reform is way ahead of the other two parties so we will have to wait and see what the outcome is and hope whoever wins the election gets us back to being Great Britain. Otherwise we are going to hell in a hand basket.

Wyllow3 Wed 19-Jun-24 13:53:41

Germanshepherdsmum

ronib

Is borrowing then added to the trillions- nearly 3 - known as the National Debt? It would be great to know if the next government will have a ceiling on the amount or is the sky the limit?

I think we know from the past that the sky’s the limit for Labour.

Yes I was a bit tongue in cheek on the Sunak questions, nevertheless he missed the chance of putting distance between his party and the very far right.

On National Debt:

www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2021/06/24/the-tories-have-always-borrowed-more-than-labour-and-always-repaid-less-they-are-the-party-of-big-deficit-spending/

The Tories have always borrowed more than Labour, and always repaid less: they are the party of big deficit spending

Wyllow3 Wed 19-Jun-24 14:01:09

Anyone got the full text from the Telegraph today?

accessible:
*Farage can spout whatever nonsense he likes, confident in the knowledge that he won't be tested on it in practice.

Yet by proposing such an idea, Reform demonstrates that it has fallen victim to the same delusions as it decries in its mainstream rivals.

The underlying reality is that Britain is drowning in debt* (18th June)

MaizieD Wed 19-Jun-24 14:06:34

The Tories have always borrowed more than Labour, and always repaid less: they are the party of big deficit spending

I suspect that if you were to analyse what the respective governments have spent the 'borrowed' money on the tories have spent it in a way that ensures that 'wealth' flows upwards to those least likely to spend into the domestic economy, whereas Labour directed their spending rather more in the direction of the less well off who do spend in the domestic economy with the resultant increased tax revenue from increased domestic economic activity.

MaizieD Wed 19-Jun-24 14:08:14

I wouldn't take much notice of what the Telegraph says. It has an agenda...

Wyllow3 Wed 19-Jun-24 14:12:32

Oh yes, was just intrigued it admitted debt levels when people are trying to lay it on future Labour Government!

Allsorts Wed 19-Jun-24 14:13:48

I don’t think there’s anyone to believe any more.

ronib Wed 19-Jun-24 14:31:18

Wyllow3. Why not expect a future government of any political party to at least talk about the issue of the National Debt? We have it and it’s not going away. Some debate about it is welcome.

Wyllow3 Wed 19-Jun-24 14:50:43

Dont deny that, ronib.

Thats why I pointed out current facts.

Offering information on the current situation after a claim of what would happen under Labour.

MaizieD Wed 19-Jun-24 14:56:43

Go on, then ronib. Debate away.

Whitewavemark2 Wed 19-Jun-24 15:12:47

M0nica

Whitewavemark2

I think that Carlos Boix has actually been quite influential - that is what I have read.

From his site

“I teach and do research on political economy and comparative politics, particular on empirical democratic theory, the choice of institutions and their consequences for growth and inequality”

There is a list of his books if anyone is interested.

Any academic economist, good or bad will be able to write this. It proves nothing.

It isn’t meant to prove anything, it is just a statement about who might have influenced Labours economics and inequality. Boix is one.

All governments are to a greater or lesser degree influenced by academics.

Whitewavemark2 Wed 19-Jun-24 15:13:37

ronib

*Wyllow3*. Why not expect a future government of any political party to at least talk about the issue of the National Debt? We have it and it’s not going away. Some debate about it is welcome.

It would have been a start to debate it over the past 14 years.

ronib Wed 19-Jun-24 15:26:43

Wwm2 well it is never too late to discuss the basics. The silence is deafening….,

Chocolatelovinggran Wed 19-Jun-24 16:06:14

PoorJenny, we have always been Great Britain. My understanding is that this was to differentiate us from Brittany.