If nominations have to be submitted by January and the ceasefire is still holding and there are signs of genuine recovery in Gaza and settlers have stopped stealing land in the West Bank, I wouldn't begrudge Trump his Nobel Prize.
I suspect that Qatar and Egypt have been manoeuvring behind the scenes to have Trump take charge of this. They needed the US onside because they're the ones with the money. They also needed to dissuade Trump from building a theme park in Gaza, so they needed to flatter him. However painful it is, the way to get Trump to do something is to suck up to him and tell him how wonderful he is. I think this year's winner of the Peace Prize is a farce, so Trump wouldn't be any worse. In fact, if his intervention does lead to peace for any significant time, he's actually achieved something.