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Caerphilly Election Result - bucking the trend

(130 Posts)
Casdon Fri 24-Oct-25 11:05:52

Against all the polls, a clear MS win for Plaid Cymru. A very bad, but entirely predictable result for Welsh Labour, given the current national, and in particular, Welsh disenchantment with them. Unexpectedly, a bad night for Reform too, they really thought they had it in the bag, but far from it, Nigel Farage was there for the count, expecting the victory roll, but left before the result. The Tories got only 2% of the vote. So, the people of Caerphilly went left.

bonbons01 Fri 24-Oct-25 16:39:03

Typo - spoken not spoke.

FriedGreenTomatoes2 Fri 24-Oct-25 16:49:53

Still - less than one million Welsh speaking people world wide (I just Googled it).
Over eight BILLION people in the world.
So yes, it is niche - by any metric bonbon.

StripeyGran Fri 24-Oct-25 17:00:48

A niche language? It is their language, their birthright. The language of wonderful poetry and music. A language with words that cannot be translated into English and why should they?

Hiraeth

A wonderful word.

PaynesGrey Fri 24-Oct-25 17:06:41

Using yesterday’s result as a base and applying the PR d’Hondt formula, Plaid would win 3 of the 6 seats, Reform 2 and Labour 1.

Now extrapolate that across 16 constituencies, Plaid would have 48 seats, Reform 32 and Labour 16. Plaid would be one seat short of a majority.

NotSpaghetti Fri 24-Oct-25 17:19:06

Be careful what you wish for - beleaguered ^Reform led Nottinghamshire County Council is spending £75,000 on new flags.

Council leader Mick Barton said displaying the flags had the potential to "strengthen community spirit".

NotSpaghetti Fri 24-Oct-25 17:21:03

...I just think that's a waste!

PaynesGrey Fri 24-Oct-25 17:21:58

Niche? The Welsh Language Act 1993 put the Welsh language on an equal footing with the English language in Wales.

Also

How the Welsh language was almost lost | Union with David Olusoga

www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrCP5S_iS5s

I was shocked when I first heard this when Union was first broadcast. Deliberate England suppression of the Welsh language. Watch out for the words evil-effects.

bonbons01 Fri 24-Oct-25 17:33:06

FriedGreenTomatoes2

Still - less than one million Welsh speaking people world wide (I just Googled it).
Over eight BILLION people in the world.
So yes, it is niche - by any metric bonbon.

FGT, you didn't just say it was a niche language you also said it was absolutely no use anywhere else in the world.

Less than, ^didn't you actually mean fewer than 🤔

PaynesGrey Fri 24-Oct-25 17:37:59

That's the same Mick Barton who banned the local press, NS.

James Walker Gurley now cabinet member for Economic Development & Asset Management for the council (because Barton presumably thinks flags are an asset) previously designed kitchens and bathrooms for Wickes. Media interviews with him show he hasn't a clue about what he’s now doing in his 40k a year job.

Babs03 Fri 24-Oct-25 17:53:17

NotSpaghetti

Be careful what you wish for - beleaguered ^Reform led Nottinghamshire County Council is spending £75,000 on new flags.

^Council leader Mick Barton said displaying the flags had the potential to "strengthen community spirit".^

I think that is a waste too.
If people want to put up a flag let them pay for it. Is a decoration not a necessity.

growstuff Fri 24-Oct-25 18:03:50

PaynesGrey

That's the same Mick Barton who banned the local press, NS.

James Walker Gurley now cabinet member for Economic Development & Asset Management for the council (because Barton presumably thinks flags are an asset) previously designed kitchens and bathrooms for Wickes. Media interviews with him show he hasn't a clue about what he’s now doing in his 40k a year job.

Is he a kitchen or a bathroom cabinet member?

(Sorry! I'll get my coat and shut the door on my way out.)

£75k on flags? What a waste of money!

NotSpaghetti Fri 24-Oct-25 18:12:58

F.G.T - not so niche as you purport ... there's an area of Patagonia too - maybe you didn't realise it was, basically international. smile

Allira Fri 24-Oct-25 18:24:53

FriedGreenTomatoes2

Plaid are further left than Labour.
This is going to be an interesting time.

Mind you a decent turn out so it must be what the Welsh voters want!

I'd rather Labour than Plaid but definitely not Reform.

It's a difficult time politically.

Allira Fri 24-Oct-25 18:26:41

PaynesGrey

Niche? The Welsh Language Act 1993 put the Welsh language on an equal footing with the English language in Wales.

Also

How the Welsh language was almost lost | Union with David Olusoga

www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrCP5S_iS5s

I was shocked when I first heard this when Union was first broadcast. Deliberate England suppression of the Welsh language. Watch out for the words evil-effects.

The Welsh Language Act 1993 put the Welsh language on an equal footing with the English language in Wales.

Equal footing?

Every document, letter, roadsign is in Welsh first.
English is a second language in many areas.

Allira Fri 24-Oct-25 18:27:28

NotSpaghetti

F.G.T - not so niche as you purport ... there's an area of Patagonia too - maybe you didn't realise it was, basically international. smile

😁

Casdon Fri 24-Oct-25 18:30:54

Isn’t that because there are, always have been, areas of Wales where Welsh is the first language Allira? I think we can allow them the right to speak Welsh.

bonbons01 Fri 24-Oct-25 18:32:55

Yes, you are right, see my earlier post NotSpaghetti.

StripeyGran, cwtch up, I'll be there now in a minute 😁.

NotSpaghetti Fri 24-Oct-25 18:33:04

Sorry bonbons01 I missed your earlier post as had a phone call and walked away!

NotSpaghetti Fri 24-Oct-25 18:34:24

bonbons01 and now you have pipped my apology to the post because I had a chat about dinner!!
grin

bonbons01 Fri 24-Oct-25 18:44:39

You're a ⭐️ NotSpaghetti, no apology is required.

Allira Fri 24-Oct-25 18:56:46

Casdon

Isn’t that because there are, always have been, areas of Wales where Welsh is the first language Allira? I think we can allow them the right to speak Welsh.

Of course, I would deny no-one their first language but there are even more whose first language is English, even if they speak Welsh, so is it right to promote Welsh as the primary language and English as the secondary language?

Allira Fri 24-Oct-25 18:58:03

Casdon

Isn’t that because there are, always have been, areas of Wales where Welsh is the first language Allira? I think we can allow them the right to speak Welsh.

I know, there were people in our family and I know others who could not speak English until they went to school.

But they are not a majority.

Allira Fri 24-Oct-25 18:59:43

StripeyGran

A niche language? It is their language, their birthright. The language of wonderful poetry and music. A language with words that cannot be translated into English and why should they?

Hiraeth

A wonderful word.

Hiraeth

Yes, it is and cannot totally be translated.

Allira Fri 24-Oct-25 19:02:05

Allira

StripeyGran

A niche language? It is their language, their birthright. The language of wonderful poetry and music. A language with words that cannot be translated into English and why should they?

Hiraeth

A wonderful word.

Hiraeth

Yes, it is and cannot totally be translated.

Ps but yes, it is considered to be a niche language globally.

That being said, it should be preserved.

PaynesGrey Fri 24-Oct-25 19:02:59

Funny isn’t it how we are at a point in politics where some politicians are demanding that migrants much have A Level English, but the English who have migrated to Wales over time were not expected to learn Welsh at all.

In 1800, 80% of the population of Wales spoke Welsh. By the 1840s, due to English migration, this had dropped to less than 50% . The English government in the Blue Books were describing the “evil-effects” of the Welsh language and it was no longer taught.

Absolutely right that this beautful language has been reclaimed.

Returning to the by-election, a good article from Will Hayward.

Reform swaggered into Caerphilly, ready for a coronation. An unpleasant surprise lay in store

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/oct/24/reform-caerphilly-byelection-britain-labour#comments

He says Reform 30 seats in 2026 (I make it 32, see upthread) but if that 2 goes to Plaid, then they will have a majority.