Caerphilly Election Result - bucking the trend

Allira

Casdon

Isn’t that because there are, always have been, areas of Wales where Welsh is the first language Allira? I think we can allow them the right to speak Welsh.

Of course, I would deny no-one their first language but there are even more whose first language is English, even if they speak Welsh, so is it right to promote Welsh as the primary language and English as the secondary language?

Is there another way of promoting Welsh to Welsh people though? That’s why it’s done, not to annoy others who aren’t Welsh. I don’t know Welsh people who object to it being the way it is - I’m in a non Welsh speaking area, but people are proud of the language, and they try.

Who are we to be calling a language "niche" ?

The arrogance.

Well, it's compulsory to teach it in schools from nursery to GCSE level.

It's the roads signs, must be confusing for tourists especially. Find the English - oops ‼

Araf means STOP!

growstuff

Babs03

“In other news, I see Reform-lead Worcestershire council are floating the idea of a 10% hike in council tax.”

Oh my, that won’t be popular.

Oh dear! Oh dear! Oh dear!

And I thought Reform had imbibed Lily’s Embrocation and were the saviours of the human race!

Growstuff, that made me giggle out loud. DH asked why I was laughing.

‼ well, that was supposed to look like two large, red exclamation marks 😀

Welsh people are very proud of their language, and is beautiful to hear a Welsh male voice choir sing in Welsh, was brought up not far from North Wales and every summer we went to stay on the Lleyn Peninsula in a small fishing village near Tudweliog - probs spelled that wrong apologies - with auntie Bron and Uncle Griff. They didn’t know much English and their cottage had gas lamps. We weren’t related but they adopted us when we first holidayed down there.
Very happy memories of Wales and of the Welsh speaking people who are so fiercely proud of their language.

Allira

Well, it's compulsory to teach it in schools from nursery to GCSE level.

It's the roads signs, must be confusing for tourists especially. Find the English - oops ‼

Araf means STOP!

Yes, my little granddaughter is already bilingual at 18 months old, it’s amazing how they learn so easily when they are young. It depends where you are in Wales as to how you view it, it can be annoying if you’re on the borders because it seems to be an intrusion when English is everybody’s first language, but the deeper into Wales you go the more importance it holds.

PaynesGrey

^Reform vote went up by 2300%^

What???

Plaid vote went from 8119 to 15961, a rise of 7842 or 96%.
Reform vote went from 7754 to 12113, a rise of 4359 or 56%.

The Tory vote was down by 3695. This then is probably mostly elderly Tories defecting just as they did in the GE.

In more other news, albeit from a few weeks ago, over in Lincolnshire, Reform’s Andrea Jenkins Greater Lincolnshire Combined County Authority Mayor wants another £147,000 to run her office.

A GLCCA report stated the mayor's office budget is currently £115,000. This has been proposed to rise to £262,000 within the next financial year.

The mayor of Greater Lincolnshire Combined County Authority (GLCCA) Dame Andrea Jenkyns has asked for a £147,000 increase in her office budget to employ people to help her. "I literally have zero people in my team," she said. "I have over 2,500 emails each month from constituents. I'm staying up until three o'clock in the morning answering some of them myself." Dame Andrea's request was made at a meeting on Wednesday, which also heard GLCCA council leaders plan to ask the UK government to cover a £630,000 overspend of the mayoral election that appointed her. (Source BBC)

Where’s the DOGE team?

If it had been by 2300%, it would have meant only 5 people voted for Reform last year (GE). Even the Monster Raving Looney party outperformed that!

Casdon

Allira

Well, it's compulsory to teach it in schools from nursery to GCSE level.

It's the roads signs, must be confusing for tourists especially. Find the English - oops ‼

Araf means STOP!

Yes, my little granddaughter is already bilingual at 18 months old, it’s amazing how they learn so easily when they are young. It depends where you are in Wales as to how you view it, it can be annoying if you’re on the borders because it seems to be an intrusion when English is everybody’s first language, but the deeper into Wales you go the more importance it holds.

My DGD talks to me in Welsh sometimes!
Araf, Cariad, Araf!!

valdavi

PaynesGrey

Reform vote went up by 2300%

What???

Plaid vote went from 8119 to 15961, a rise of 7842 or 96%.
Reform vote went from 7754 to 12113, a rise of 4359 or 56%.

The Tory vote was down by 3695. This then is probably mostly elderly Tories defecting just as they did in the GE.

In more other news, albeit from a few weeks ago, over in Lincolnshire, Reform’s Andrea Jenkins Greater Lincolnshire Combined County Authority Mayor wants another £147,000 to run her office.

A GLCCA report stated the mayor's office budget is currently £115,000. This has been proposed to rise to £262,000 within the next financial year.

The mayor of Greater Lincolnshire Combined County Authority (GLCCA) Dame Andrea Jenkyns has asked for a £147,000 increase in her office budget to employ people to help her. "I literally have zero people in my team," she said. "I have over 2,500 emails each month from constituents. I'm staying up until three o'clock in the morning answering some of them myself." Dame Andrea's request was made at a meeting on Wednesday, which also heard GLCCA council leaders plan to ask the UK government to cover a £630,000 overspend of the mayoral election that appointed her. (Source BBC)

Where’s the DOGE team?

If it had been by 2300%, it would have meant only 5 people voted for Reform last year (GE). Even the Monster Raving Looney party outperformed that!

2024 Election:

Labour 14,538
Plaid 8,119
Reform 7,754

If this is a protest vote against Labour, it is worrying how this could translate in the RUK in a General Election

Could it have been a tactical vote? Labour voters chosing Plaid to keep Reform out?

Not to forget, there were 4,385 Tory votes in 2024 general election. Only 690 votes in this by election. It’s not just a protest vote against Labour, it’s a protest vote against mainstream parties.

Maremia

Could it have been a tactical vote? Labour voters chosing Plaid to keep Reform out?

I think that’s why there was a good turnout. It was both an anti Labour and an anti Reform vote. I heard today that Reform didn’t help themselves by sending in a largely ‘posh English’ band of campaigners, and Labour and the Tories didn’t show up at all, while Plaid were putting in the door knocking hours.

Maremia

Could it have been a tactical vote? Labour voters chosing Plaid to keep Reform out?

Yes.

FriedGreenTomatoes2

Fair comment MaizieD. Labour are certainly ‘less left’ than they would’ve been under Corbyn. Support for his Fruit & Nut Party will impinge on Labour - some forecasters say swiping 10% off Labour.

However - These results today are not hard to interpret.
Both Labour and the Conservatives are toast. That's it.

Won't happen, FGT. They can't hold themselves together, usual rifts that you get with very far left or right parties.

What is actually happening - as an active insider - is that most - not many, most heavy duty former Corbyistas:

are now lending their support to the MainStream (or Mainstream) movement within the L Party,

Led by MP's, and members including Andy Burnham, we are to the left of Starmer, basically seeking a sensible middle ground left that can stand against Reform and deliver better policies in key areas.

(Like we would never have delivered the Winter fuel measures at the level they are, and have proposed much more fine tuned proposals on PIP, some more radical economics ideas)

In some areas....the Green Party is attracting further left voters.
(its very, very mixed indeed, as some Green Party people like our local Green councillors are traditional Greens ).

As for Was there tactical voting of course there was. I cant speak for certain, but it's fairly likely I would have done it when we knew the way the wind was blowing.

And yes, I envisage collaboration between Plaid and Labour as time goes on for now.
I welcome of course a better PR system. Always did, it's just so hard to get it right.

Casdon

Maremia

Could it have been a tactical vote? Labour voters chosing Plaid to keep Reform out?

I think that’s why there was a good turnout. It was both an anti Labour and an anti Reform vote. I heard today that Reform didn’t help themselves by sending in a largely ‘posh English’ band of campaigners, and Labour and the Tories didn’t show up at all, while Plaid were putting in the door knocking hours.

If you are going for tactical voting you don't turn up knocking on the door big time. You take the hit in order to keep the far right out.

(You do what you feel is best for your country/your city/your county in the long run, when you have a really good candidate you feel you can support lesser of two evils)

Allira

Well, it's compulsory to teach it in schools from nursery to GCSE level.

It's the roads signs, must be confusing for tourists especially. Find the English - oops ‼

Araf means STOP!

Allira, araf does not mean stop it means slow so on a roadsign it means slow down. Maybe take a leaf out of that.

Wyllow3

Casdon

Maremia

Could it have been a tactical vote? Labour voters chosing Plaid to keep Reform out?

I think that’s why there was a good turnout. It was both an anti Labour and an anti Reform vote. I heard today that Reform didn’t help themselves by sending in a largely ‘posh English’ band of campaigners, and Labour and the Tories didn’t show up at all, while Plaid were putting in the door knocking hours.

If you are going for tactical voting you don't turn up knocking on the door big time. You take the hit in order to keep the far right out.

My guess is that they persuaded voters that Reform needed to be stopped and they were in a better position to do that than Labour - that was the argument the LibDems always used in my constituency, until this last election when they gave way to Labour.

I am glad Plaid won and I would have voted for them ( having a fair bit of Welsh blood in me genes) but the comments about Reform being defeated are a bit daft - they got a lot of votes, a lot more than Labour or Conservative, certainly not wiped out by any means. The people on this forum seem to hate them but I think they are out of step with most of the country in that. To me they represent a protest vote against that ghastly government you have just now.

Lindsay Whittle has been a popular councillor who had served his community for over 50 years.

Llŷr Powell has worked in press and communications for UKIP, the Brexit Party and Reform.

Nevertheless, in 2022, he stood as a Tory candidate in local council elections in Grangetown, Cardiff winning just 2% of the votes. Where’s his party loyalty and where’s his experience in government ?

cardiff.moderngov.co.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=218

Vaughan Roderick BBC Welsh affairs editor reports:

From word of mouth, it appears what has happened in Caerphilly is there was a very strong and unexpectedly strong turnout from younger voters.

What do we know about younger voters in Wales? Well, they are the cohort that are most in favour of Welsh Independence, the cohort who are the most opposed to Brexit, and they are the cohort who are the least likely to vote for Reform.

If we see an electorate that reflects that next May, then that's very bad news for Labour, bad news for Reform and the Conservatives, and it's very good news not just for Plaid Cymru, but also for the Green Party and the possible new Jeremy Corbyn party.

I don’t see this as tactical voting. I think the increased Reform vote can be explained by more older Tories switching to Reform just as they did in last years GE. In this by-election, the Tories were down 3695 and Refom up 4359, a difference of only 664.

In England, that younger vote would probably have produced a swing away from Labour towards the Greens and LibDems. In 2024, 41% of 18-24s voted Labour and 34% LibDem and Green. 45% of 25-29s voted Labour and 28% LibDem and Green.

Who knows what will happen in the next four years? What we can be certain of is that between 2024 and 2029, 3 million older people will (have) die(d). 600,000 die every year. Just as the Brexit majority had been wiped out by that most natural of wastages by the time the UK left in 2020, voter demographics will have changed dramatically by 2029.

Younger people aren’t concerned with the things that seem to obsess (some of) their grandparents, race and gender and clinging to wealth. They are concerned by housing and income inequality, education, jobs and climate change.

Tim Stanley from The Telegraph speaking on Newsnight on Friday night, said he believes people in Caerphllly were voting on constituency issues (which they should be). Reform’s obsession, migration, isn’t one of them.

The majority of Caerphilly people voted for someone who has a very long history of working hard for his community. People of Clacton take note.

Good analysis PaynesGray. Thank you.

nanna8

I am glad Plaid won and I would have voted for them ( having a fair bit of Welsh blood in me genes) but the comments about Reform being defeated are a bit daft - they got a lot of votes, a lot more than Labour or Conservative, certainly not wiped out by any means. The people on this forum seem to hate them but I think they are out of step with most of the country in that. To me they represent a protest vote against that ghastly government you have just now.

Protest votes don't necessarily produce better outcomes.

Was just about to say that growstuff.

I think what nanna8 didn’t pick up on is the proportional representation issue, which means that if this result translates country wide, as no other party will work with Reform in Wales, with 36% of the vote it will be impossible for them to be in government here.